Gains From Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence From The Taper Tantrum Shock

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Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock

Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Mr.Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss
Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Mr.Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 13 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2019-03-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498302777

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Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock by Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Mr.Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss Pdf

Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.

World Economic Outlook, October 2021

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
World Economic Outlook October 2021 Book PDF

Author : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 172 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513577524

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World Economic Outlook, October 2021 by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Pdf

The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.

Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence

Mr. Pragyan Deb,Julia Estefania-Flores,Melih Firat,Davide Furceri,Siddharth Kothari
Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity Cross Country Evidence Book PDF

Author : Mr. Pragyan Deb,Julia Estefania-Flores,Melih Firat,Davide Furceri,Siddharth Kothari
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2023-10-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400257322

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Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence by Mr. Pragyan Deb,Julia Estefania-Flores,Melih Firat,Davide Furceri,Siddharth Kothari Pdf

This paper revisits the transmission of monetary policy by constructing a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks for an unbalanced sample of 33 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1991Q2-2023Q2. Our findings reveal that tightening monetary policy swiftly and negatively impacts economic activity, but the effects on inflation and inflation expectations takes time to fully materialize. Notably, there exist significant heterogeneities in the transmission of monetary policy across countries and time, depending on structural characteristics and cyclical conditions. Across countries, monetary policy is more effective in countries with flexible exchange rate regime, more developed financial systems, and credible monetary policy frameworks. In addition, we find that monetary policy transmission is stronger when uncertainty is low, financial conditions are tight and monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy—that is, when the stances move in the same direction.

Theory of Shocks, COVID-19, and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses

Pilipenko, Olga Ivanovna,Pilipenko, Zoya Andreevna,Pilipenko, Andrey Igorevich
Theory of Shocks COVID 19 and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses Book PDF

Author : Pilipenko, Olga Ivanovna,Pilipenko, Zoya Andreevna,Pilipenko, Andrey Igorevich
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781799843108

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Theory of Shocks, COVID-19, and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses by Pilipenko, Olga Ivanovna,Pilipenko, Zoya Andreevna,Pilipenko, Andrey Igorevich Pdf

The phenomenon of shocks is often mentioned in relation to economic crises but rarely studied. This gap in research has resulted in shocks being poorly understood, with no fundamental explanation of their inciting conditions. It is a system-forming problem that cannot be investigated without dynamic ideas about the economy, but an incomplete understanding of this event leaves economic systems vulnerable to collapse. Theory of Shocks, COVID-19, and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses is an essential publication that explores the factors that cause economic shocks and the mechanisms of their implementation. The book serves as a resource for the development of policy-oriented frameworks for achieving and maintaining national and international strategies to properly manage future global shocks. Featuring coverage of a wide range of topics including dialectics, self-evolvement, and structural relationships, this book is ideally designed for economists, executives, managers, entrepreneurs, academicians, students, and researchers in the areas of finance, macroeconomics, economic theory, and risk assessment.

Adapting and Mitigating Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk in Business

Ziolo, Magdalena
Adapting and Mitigating Environmental Social and Governance Risk in Business Book PDF

Author : Ziolo, Magdalena
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 313 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2021-04-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781799867906

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Adapting and Mitigating Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk in Business by Ziolo, Magdalena Pdf

Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) risk considers the nonfinancial risks that could arise in a business, such as sustainability, brand reputation, legal aspects, ethics, and more. As businesses all have their own risk profiles, there is a need for risk management and mitigation that is unique for each company. Because of this variability, the study on ESG risk factors and motives of incorporating the ESG perspective into business models are crucial yet challenging. Therefore, it is important to understand how companies are adapting and mitigating ESG risk in diverse types of businesses. Adapting and Mitigating Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk in Business examines processes in enterprises that can increase the sustainability of business models and their coherence with the assumptions of the concept of sustainable development and ESG risk. Furthermore, the book explores how enterprises operating in different sectors are adapting their business models towards sustainability in order to create sustainable value. This book is a valuable tool for managers, executives, entrepreneurs, practitioners, academicians, researchers, and graduate students in finance, business, and management.

World Economic Outlook, October 2018

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
World Economic Outlook October 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 215 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2018-10-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484376799

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World Economic Outlook, October 2018 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets

Mr. Marco Arena,Mr. Rudolfs Bems,Mr. Nadeem Ilahi,Mr. Jaewoo Lee,William Lindquist,Mr. Tonny Lybek
Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Mr. Marco Arena,Mr. Rudolfs Bems,Mr. Nadeem Ilahi,Mr. Jaewoo Lee,William Lindquist,Mr. Tonny Lybek
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 81 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2021-09-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513593753

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Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets by Mr. Marco Arena,Mr. Rudolfs Bems,Mr. Nadeem Ilahi,Mr. Jaewoo Lee,William Lindquist,Mr. Tonny Lybek Pdf

Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary policy and keep a safe distance from the risk of fiscal dominance. As central banks in the region move towards monetary policy tightening, the tapering, ending, and unwinding of APPs must also be carefully considered. Clear and transparent communication is critical at each step of the process, from the inception to the closure of APPs, particularly when a large shock hits and triggers a major policy shift.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss,Weicheng Lian
Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss,Weicheng Lian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2018-12-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484392232

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Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence by Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Francesca G Caselli,Francesco Grigoli,Bertrand Gruss,Weicheng Lian Pdf

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Outside the Band

Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz
Outside the Band Book PDF

Author : Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2016-09-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475533880

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Outside the Band by Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz Pdf

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

World Bank
Global Economic Prospects June 2021 Book PDF

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 339 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464816666

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Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by World Bank Pdf

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence

Minsuk Kim
Financial Development Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization A Firm Level Evidence Book PDF

Author : Minsuk Kim
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2019-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513508979

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Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence by Minsuk Kim Pdf

This paper examines how financial development influences the debt dollarization of nonfinancial firms in a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). The macroeconomic channels are identified from an optimal portfolio allocation model and assessed empirically using the accounting information of nonfinancial firms from 21 EMEs during 2009–2017. The results show that financial development, measured by the private credit-to-GDP ratio, mainly reduces the influence of exchange rate volatility in determining a firm's debt currency composition, among other channels. Furthermore, the effect of exchange rate volatility becomes statistically insignificant beyond an estimated threshold credit-to-GDP ratio of 100 percent.

The ASEAN Way

Ms.Ana Corbacho,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris
The ASEAN Way Book PDF

Author : Ms.Ana Corbacho,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 311 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2018-10-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513558905

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The ASEAN Way by Ms.Ana Corbacho,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris Pdf

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

And Yet it Moves

David Miles,Ugo Panizza,Ricardo Reis,Ángel Ubide
And Yet it Moves Book PDF

Author : David Miles,Ugo Panizza,Ricardo Reis,Ángel Ubide
Publisher : Geneva Reports on the World Ec
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2018-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1912179059

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And Yet it Moves by David Miles,Ugo Panizza,Ricardo Reis,Ángel Ubide Pdf

Over the last decade, the developed world has been hit by the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a rollercoaster in commodity prices. And yet, core inflation has been both low and fairly stable. A rule of thumb that inflation is always near 2%, though more often than not just a bit below, has been quite reliable. The young, or those with short memories, could be forgiven for looking condescendingly at their older friends who speak of inflation as a major economic problem. But, like Galileo Galilei told his contemporaries who thought the Earth was immovable, "Eppur si muove" ("and yet it moves"). Since most societies regard stable inflation as a goal, it is tempting to describe this solid anchoring of inflation as a great achievement of monetary policy. But what if it was just luck? Will the great anchoring soon lead a great bout of inflation, just as the Great Moderation was followed by the Great Recession? Do we need to change the way in which policy is set to better handle changed circumstances since the financial crash? The 19th Geneva Report on the World Economy starts by analysing outcomes across countries for the last ten years. Inflation is compared with its behaviour in the period before the financial crash to assess the extent to which it really has been stable, what the proximate causes are, and whether it will stay low in future. The report then assesses theories of inflation in light of these facts, and tries to make sense of them. Next, the report turns to the question we posed at the start: was it good policy or good luck that prevented severe deflation and kept inflation relatively steady? A description of what policies were adopted and how they interacted with economic shocks informs the conclusions on appropriate policies--both monetary and fiscal--for the future. The report pays particular attention tothe role of central banks and the extent of their activities.

Toward an Integrated Policy Framework

International Monetary Fund
Toward an Integrated Policy Framework Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2020-10-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513558765

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Toward an Integrated Policy Framework by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.