Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs

Author : Mark V. Arena
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833039255

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Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by Mark V. Arena Pdf

This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1050611108

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Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by Anonim Pdf

This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.

Author : Obaid Younossi
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 142 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780833041357

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Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by Obaid Younossi Pdf

In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.

Author : Joseph George Bolten
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 117 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833042897

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Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by Joseph George Bolten Pdf

Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1050641884

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Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs by Anonim Pdf

Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.

Author : Neil M. Singer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : United States
ISBN : UOM:39015005364511

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Cost Growth in Weapon Systems by Neil M. Singer Pdf

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 97 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:227813403

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An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by Anonim Pdf

Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.

Author : David E. Stem,Michael Boito,Obaid Younossi
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 211 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780833038722

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Systems Engineering and Program Management by David E. Stem,Michael Boito,Obaid Younossi Pdf

Systems engineering and program management (SE/PM) constitute a large portion of the acquisition cost of military aircraft and guided weapons systems. The goal of this study was the development of a set of cost-estimating relationships that can be used to estimate the SE/PM cost element for development and production of aircraft and weapons programs. The authors canvassed government and industry personnel to learn about current techniques for estimating SE/PM costs, and they collected historical data from several aircraft and weapons programs to investigate trends in SE/PM costs over time and to generate methods that cost analysts can use early in the life cycle of a program when little cost information is available. The authors also investigated the effects on SE/PM costs from acquisition reform, including the reduction in the number of military specifications and standards, the use of integrated product and process teams, and the trend toward "evolutionary acquisition." This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Book jacket.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Rand Corporation
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 9780833038630

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Impossible Certainty by Anonim Pdf

This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on USAF Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 99 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2020-07-16
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309675857

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Weapons System Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on USAF Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle Pdf

According to the Government Accountability Office, sustainment of weapon systems accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total life-cycle costs. When sustainment is not considered early in the development process or as an integral part of the systems engineering design, it can negatively affect the ability of the Air Force to maintain and improve the weapon system once it enters service. At the request of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Weapons Systems Sustainment Planning Early in the Development Life Cycle identifies at what point or phase of the development of a weapons system sustainment planning should be integrated into the program; examines and provides recommendations regarding how sustainment planning should be evaluated throughout the development process; investigates and describes the current challenges with sustainment planning and determines what changes have occurred throughout the acquisition process that may have eroded sustainment planning; and identifies opportunities for acquisitions offices to gain greater access to sustainment expertise.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:227978062

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An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates by Anonim Pdf

In support of the project "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives," this study gives an overview of a wide range of published estimates and projections of potential cost savings that are attributed to a variety of weapon system acquisition reform (AR) measures. These estimates are compared in accordance with a taxonomy developed by the authors. Although the origins and quality of the estimates are discussed, no independent estimates have been generated, nor are the existing published estimates analyzed in depth. Rather, the authors present a taxonomy of current AR initiatives; review published estimates of the cost savings attributed to these initiatives; report the views of industry and government officials on the potential cost savings from AR; and discuss the structuring and implementation of programmatic AR measures based on lessons learned from existing AR pilot programs. The project is in the RAND Project AIR FORCE Resource Management Program. The research is sponsored by the Principal Deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition), and by the Office of the Technical Director, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. This study should be of interest to government and industry officials concerned with assessing the potential cost savings that current AR measures may generate when applied to major weapon system R & D and procurement programs. The information collection cutoff date was December 1999.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 1981
Category : Military weapons
ISBN : MINN:30000010437857

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Concepts by Anonim Pdf

Disseminates information concerning new developments and effective actions taken relative to the management of defense systems programs and defense systems acquisition.

Author : Michael J. Sullivan
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2008-10
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781437907650

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Defense Acquisitions by Michael J. Sullivan Pdf

The DoD expects the cost to develop and procure the major weapon systems in its portfolio to total $1.6 trill. With increased competition for funding within DoD and across the fed. gov¿t., effectively managing these acquisitions is critical. Yet DoD programs often experience poor outcomes -- like increased costs and delayed fielding of needed capabilities. In 2006, a report was issued on DoD¿s processes for identifying needs and allocating resources for its weapon system programs. In 2007, it was reported that DoD consistently commits to more programs than it can support. This report assesses DoD¿s funding approach, identifies factors that influence the effectiveness of this approach, and identifies practices that could help improve DoD¿s approach.

Author : David Arthur
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2011-04
Category : Reference
ISBN : 9781437981728

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Long-Term Implications of the 2011 Future Years Defense Program by David Arthur Pdf

In most years, the Department of Defense (DoD) provides a five- or six-year plan, called the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), associated with the budget that it submits to the Congress. Because decisions made in the near term can have consequences for the defense budget well beyond that period, this report has examined the programs and plans contained in DoD's FYDP and projected their budgetary impact in subsequent years. For this analysis, the report used the FYDP provided to the Congress in April 2010, which covers fiscal years 2011 through 2015 the most recent plan available when this analysis was conducted. The report's projections span 2011 through 2028. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 70 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1982
Category : United States
ISBN : STANFORD:36105112084491

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Weapons Acquisition Policy and Procedures by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Special Panel on Defense Procurement Procedures Pdf