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Author : Kenneth Joseph Arrow
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Consumers' preferences
ISBN : OCLC:1035668810
Author : Kenneth Joseph Arrow
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0674137620
The third volume of Arrow's Collected Papers concerns the basic concept of rationality as it applies to an economic decision maker. In particular, it addresses the problem of choice faced by consumers in a multicommodity world and presents specific models of choice useful in economic analysis. It also discusses choice models under uncertainty.
Author : Kenneth Joseph Arrow
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Distributive justice
ISBN : UOM:39015008602230
Author : Kenneth Joseph Arrow
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Distributive justice
ISBN : STANFORD:36105004908179
Author : Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Utility theory
ISBN : OCLC:503388246
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781602060050
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Charles A. Holloway
Publisher : Prentice Hall
Page : 554 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015010897505
Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 350 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2015-07-24
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780262331715
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2009-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521517324
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Author : Paul Bourgine,Jean-Pierre Nadal
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 479 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540247081
The social sciences study knowing subjects and their interactions. A "cog nitive turn", based on cognitive science, has the potential to enrich these sciences considerably. Cognitive economics belongs within this movement of the social sciences. It aims to take into account the cognitive processes of individuals in economic theory, both on the level of the agent and on the level of their dynamic interactions and the resulting collective phenomena. This is an ambitious research programme that aims to link two levels of com plexity: the level of cognitive phenomena as studied and tested by cognitive science, and the level of collective phenomena produced by the economic in teractions between agents. Such an objective requires cooperation, not only between economists and cognitive scientists but also with mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, in order to renew, study and simulate models of dynamical systems involving economic agents and their cognitive mechanisms. The hard core of classical economics is the General Equilibrium Theory, based on the optimising rationality of the agent and on static concepts of equilibrium, following a point of view systemised in the framework of Game Theory. The agent is considered "rational" if everything takes place as if he was maximising a function representing his preferences, his utility function.
Author : Haim Levy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 439 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2006-08-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780387293110
This book is devoted to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers three basic approaches to this process: the stochastic dominance approach; the mean-variance approach; and the non-expected utility approach, focusing on prospect theory and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory. Each approach is discussed and compared. In addition, this volume examines cases in which stochastic dominance rules coincide with the mean-variance rule and considers how contradictions between these two approaches may occur.
Author : C. J. McKenna
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1986
Category : Psychology
ISBN : STANFORD:36105038129941
Author : Richard Bradley
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2017-10-26
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781107003217
Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Author : Mark Rubinstein
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 393 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2011-09-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118161098
"This exceptional book provides valuable insights into the evolution of financial economics from the perspective of a major player." -- Robert Litzenberger, Hopkinson Professor Emeritus of Investment Banking, Univ. of Pennsylvania; and retired partner, Goldman Sachs A History of the Theory of Investments is about ideas -- where they come from, how they evolve, and why they are instrumental in preparing the future for new ideas. Author Mark Rubinstein writes history by rewriting history. In unearthing long-forgotten books and journals, he corrects past oversights to assign credit where credit is due and assembles a remarkable history that is unquestionable in its accuracy and unprecedented in its power. Exploring key turning points in the development of investment theory, through the critical prism of award-winning investment theory and asset pricing expert Mark Rubinstein, this groundbreaking resource follows the chronological development of investment theory over centuries, exploring the inner workings of great theoretical breakthroughs while pointing out contributions made by often unsung contributors to some of investment's most influential ideas and models.