Journal Of Business Cycle Measurement And Analysis

Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585

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Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch Pdf

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Author : Arthur F. Burns,Wesley C. Mitchell
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 602 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 1946
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105001929814

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Measuring Business Cycles by Arthur F. Burns,Wesley C. Mitchell Pdf

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513536996

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles by Ms.Valerie Cerra,A. Fatas,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena Pdf

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : Finn E. Kydland
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 556 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UFL:31262054238299

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Business Cycle Theory by Finn E. Kydland Pdf

This volume is a collection of key articles on modern business cycle theory. Fundamental to business cycle theory is the estimation of the role played by different impulses or shocks for aggregate fluctuations, and identifying the mechanisms by which these impulses propagate over time to create the cycles we observe. Business Cycles Theory is divided into three parts. Part I deals with issues of measurement and methodology and describes empirical business cycle regularities. Parts II and III centre around the study of real and nominal shocks and impulses.

Author : Jan Jacobs
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 237 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461555919

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Econometric Business Cycle Research by Jan Jacobs Pdf

Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.

Author : John B. Guerard
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 666 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2022-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030994181

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The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States by John B. Guerard Pdf

In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.

Author : Pami Dua
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 0195662156

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Business Cycles and Economic Growth by Pami Dua Pdf

Essays In The Book Discuss Issues Related To The Analysis Of Business Cycles And The Use Of Leading Indicators To Product Turn Prints-Peaks And Troughs Of Economic Activity. Reinforce The Relevance Of Business Cycle. Contributors Are Notable Economics And Practioners Including Nobel Laureates. Divided Into 4 Parts-16 Papers In All.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 478 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : STANFORD:36105214178225

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Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis by Anonim Pdf

Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1997
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1859724361

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Business Cycle Indicators by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer Pdf

The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.

Author : Sergey Smirnov,Ataman Ozyildirim,Paulo Picchetti
Publisher : Springer
Page : 505 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2018-08-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319900179

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Business Cycles in BRICS by Sergey Smirnov,Ataman Ozyildirim,Paulo Picchetti Pdf

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

Author : Gilbert R. Ghez,Gary Stanley Becker
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1975
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015010652025

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The Allocation of Time and Goods Over the Life Cycle by Gilbert R. Ghez,Gary Stanley Becker Pdf

There is a belief now that family behavior over the life cycle can be analyzed by economic methods. This study deals with allocation of resources by families over time.

Author : Robert J. Gordon
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 882 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226304595

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The American Business Cycle by Robert J. Gordon Pdf

In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Author : Solomos Solomou
Publisher : Manchester University Press
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0719041511

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Economic Cycles by Solomos Solomou Pdf

The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?

Author : James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 684 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2013-07-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134694792

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Real Business Cycles by James Hartley,Kevin Hoover,Kevin D. Salyer Pdf

Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.

Author : Marcus Kappler,Andreas Sachs
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2012-07-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783790828559

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Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration by Marcus Kappler,Andreas Sachs Pdf

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.