Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability And Fiscal Stress

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Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova
Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress Book PDF

Author : Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2011-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455253333

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Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress by Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova Pdf

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.

Assessing Fiscal Stress

Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci
Assessing Fiscal Stress Book PDF

Author : Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2011-05-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455254316

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Assessing Fiscal Stress by Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci Pdf

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.

A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability

Murray Petrie,Richard Hemming
A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability Book PDF

Author : Murray Petrie,Richard Hemming
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822028587103

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A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability by Murray Petrie,Richard Hemming Pdf

Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The focus in this paper is on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective, and the suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer- term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy.

Fiscal Stress and Public Policy

Charles H. Levine,Irene Rubin
Fiscal Stress and Public Policy Book PDF

Author : Charles H. Levine,Irene Rubin
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1980-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015016122767

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Fiscal Stress and Public Policy by Charles H. Levine,Irene Rubin Pdf

Provides some of the most current thinking on various aspects of fiscal stress in the public sector and its implications for public management. It lays out the background of financial stress at the federal, state, and local levels, suggesting how various public bodies have responded or might respond to fiscal stress. 'Fiscal Stress and Public Policy is an excellent collection of articles. They are provocative, readable, and of enduring value of academicians, scholars and students of public policy. Indeed, individual contributions are overshadowed only by the overall quality of the volume.' -- Quality and Quantity, Vol 17, 1983 'This is an excellent collection of essays. They coalesce around an extremely imp

Managing Fiscal Stress

Charles H. Levine
Managing Fiscal Stress Book PDF

Author : Charles H. Levine
Publisher : Chatham, N.J. : Chatham House Publishers
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 1980
Category : Political Science
ISBN : UOM:39015006808177

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Managing Fiscal Stress by Charles H. Levine Pdf

"Fiscal stress is a problem of growing concern to all levels of government. This volume provides in-depth analyses of the causes and consequences of financial stress, and offers solutions for managers charged with the responsibility for maintaining fiscal solvency and adequate and equitable services"--Back cover.

Contemporary Issues in International Trade

Rajib Bhattacharyya,Debashis Mazumdar
Contemporary Issues in International Trade Book PDF

Author : Rajib Bhattacharyya,Debashis Mazumdar
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 361 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2024-05-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781837973200

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Contemporary Issues in International Trade by Rajib Bhattacharyya,Debashis Mazumdar Pdf

Reaching beyond the usual terrain of economic engagement, this edited collection confronts critical issues to demand urgent analytical attention and a harnessing of the economic potential at stake.

Fiscal Monitor, April 2013

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Fiscal Monitor April 2013 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2013-04-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475566253

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Fiscal Monitor, April 2013 by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Continued progress in reducing advanced economy deficits and a gradually improving external environment have lowered short-term fiscal risks, according to this issue, but global prospects nevertheless remain subdued, and many advanced economies face a lengthy, difficult, and uncertain path to fiscal sustainability. Though many advanced economies are now close to achieving primary surpluses that will allow them to stabilize their debt ratios, this is only a first step, as merely stabilizing advanced economy debt at current levels would be detrimental to medium- and longer-term economic prospects. The key elements of the required policy package are well known: foremost among them is setting out—and implementing—a clear and credible plan to bring debt ratios down over the medium term. Debt dynamics have remained relatively positive in most emerging market economies and low-income countries, and most plan to continue to allow the automatic stabilizers to operate fully, while pausing the underlying fiscal adjustment process. Those with low general government debt and deficits can afford to maintain a neutral stance in response to a weaker global outlook. But countries with relatively high or quickly increasing debt levels are exposed to sizable risks, especially once effective interest rates rise as monetary policy normalizes in the advanced economies and concessional financing from advanced economies declines. The widespread use of energy subsidies makes commodity prices an additional source of vulnerability in many emerging market and low-income economies; subsidy reform, higher consumption taxes, and broadening of tax bases would help support consolidation efforts.

Fiscal Monitor, October 2012

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Fiscal Monitor October 2012 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 115 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2012-10-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616353919

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Fiscal Monitor, October 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008-09. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress, focusing on its size, composition, and implications for employment and social equity. The issue finds that most countries--and especially advanced economies--have made significant headway in rolling back fiscal deficits, but that efforts at controlling debt stocks are taking longer to yield results. The mix of revenue and expenditure policies employed by countries with sizable fiscal consolidation needs has differed, with advanced economies in general relying more on spending retrenchment than emerging markets and low-income countries. Both spending and revenue measures have important implications for employment and social equity, the issue finds, and these implications need to be taken into account if the large consolidation efforts underway are to be sustainable.

Fiscal Crises

Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Mr.Paulo A Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan,Juan Farah-Yacoub,Yizhi Xu
Fiscal Crises Book PDF

Author : Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Mr.Paulo A Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan,Juan Farah-Yacoub,Yizhi Xu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2017-04-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475592153

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Fiscal Crises by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Mr.Paulo A Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan,Juan Farah-Yacoub,Yizhi Xu Pdf

A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.

Post-crisis Fiscal Policy

Carlo Cottarelli,Philip Gerson,Abdelhak Senhadji,A. Senhadji Semlali
Post crisis Fiscal Policy Book PDF

Author : Carlo Cottarelli,Philip Gerson,Abdelhak Senhadji,A. Senhadji Semlali
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 575 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2014-06-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262027182

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Post-crisis Fiscal Policy by Carlo Cottarelli,Philip Gerson,Abdelhak Senhadji,A. Senhadji Semlali Pdf

"Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment). This volume brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. After establishing its analytical foundation, with chapters on such topics as fiscal risk and debt dynamics, the book analyzes the buildup of fiscal vulnerabilities before the crisis, presents the policy response during the crisis, discusses the fiscal outlook and policy challenges ahead, and offers lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. Topics discussed include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and institutional reform aimed at fostering fiscal discipline."--Publisher's description.

Stress Testing at the IMF

Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher
Stress Testing at the IMF Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513520742

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Stress Testing at the IMF by Mr.Tobias Adrian,Mr.James Morsink,MissLiliana B Schumacher Pdf

This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Fiscal Monitor, October 2013

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Fiscal Monitor October 2013 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2013-10-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484350423

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Fiscal Monitor, October 2013 by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Persistently high debt ratios in advanced economies and emerging fragilities in the developing world cast clouds on the global fiscal landscape. In advanced economies, with narrowing budget deficits, the average public debt ratio is expected to stabilize in 2013–14—but it will be at a historic peak. At the same time, fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise in emerging market economies and low-income countries—on the back, in emerging market economies, of heightened financial volatility and downward revisions to potential growth, and in low-income countries, of possible shortfalls in commodity prices and aid. Strengthening fiscal balances and buttressing confidence thus remain at the top of the policy agenda. Against that backdrop, this issue explores whether and how tax reform can help strengthen public finances. Taxation is always a sensitive topic and is now more than ever at the center of policy debates around the world. Can countries tax more, better, more fairly? Results reported in this issue show that the scope to raise more revenue is limited in many advanced economies and, where tax ratios are already high, the bulk of the necessary adjustment will have to fall on spending. In emerging market economies and low-income countries, where the potential for raising revenue is often substantial, improving compliance remains a central challenge.

Czech Republic

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Czech Republic Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2013-08-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484317563

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Czech Republic by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the fiscal strength of the economy of the Czech Republic. Fiscal policy in the Czech Republic has shown a procyclical bias temporarily interrupted during the crisis years. The large stimulus implemented has been more than compensated by a frontloaded adjustment. However, the fiscal framework could be improved to increase transparency, predictability, and credibility of policy and minimize the procyclical bias. This could be achieved by incorporating, among other things, a simple and credible rule with a medium-term fiscal anchor set in structural terms.

Fiscal Sustainability and Competitiveness in Europe and Asia

R. Rajan,K. Tan
Fiscal Sustainability and Competitiveness in Europe and Asia Book PDF

Author : R. Rajan,K. Tan
Publisher : Springer
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2014-07-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137406972

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Fiscal Sustainability and Competitiveness in Europe and Asia by R. Rajan,K. Tan Pdf

This book examines key issues and policy concerns relating to fiscal sustainability and competitiveness in European and Asian economies. In addition to estimating the extent of fiscal capacity or lack thereof for these economies, the authors supplement the empirical analysis with country case studies.

Fiscal Monitor, April 2014

Ms.Martine Guerguil,Mr.Michael Keen
Fiscal Monitor April 2014 Book PDF

Author : Ms.Martine Guerguil,Mr.Michael Keen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2014-04-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475557121

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Fiscal Monitor, April 2014 by Ms.Martine Guerguil,Mr.Michael Keen Pdf

Fiscal risks are abating somewhat but remain elevated. In advanced economies, recent policy moves have broadly stabilized public debt ratios, but medium-term prospects are still uncertain, and debt remains at historic highs. Fiscal vulnerabilities are rising in both emerging market economies and low-income countries, although in most cases from relatively moderate levels. Across country groups, fiscal policy should aim at rebuilding policy space while supporting the recovery and long-term growth prospects.