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A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability by Richard Hemming Pdf
Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer-term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy. Fiscal vulnerability indicators are suggested.
A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability by Murray Petrie,Richard Hemming Pdf
Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The focus in this paper is on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective, and the suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer- term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy.
Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress by Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova Pdf
This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts
Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 28 pages File Size : 42,8 Mb Release : 2016-06-23 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498345583
Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts Pdf
Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.
Assessing Fiscal Stress by Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci Pdf
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.
A Generalized Framework for the Assessment of Household Financial Vulnerability by Mindaugas Leika,Daniela Marchettini Pdf
Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment, as well as in data availability. This paper aims at integrating the contributions in the literature in a coherent fashion. The study proposes also analytical and estimation extensions aimed at improving the quality of estimates and allowing the assessment of household financial vulnerability in presence of data limitations. The result of this effort is a comprehensive framework, that has wide applicability to both advanced and developing economies. For illustrative purposes the paper includes a detailed application to one developing country (Namibia).
Government at Risk by Hana Polackova Brixi,Allen Schick Pdf
Many governments have faced serious instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional public finance analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks. This book aims to provide motivation and practical guidance to governments seeking to improve theirmanagement of fiscal risks. The book addresses some of the difficult analytical and institutional challenges that face reformers tooling up to manage government fiscal risks. It discusses the inadequacies of conventional practices as well as recent advances in dealing with fiscal risk.
Contemporary Issues in International Trade by Rajib Bhattacharyya,Debashis Mazumdar Pdf
Reaching beyond the usual terrain of economic engagement, this edited collection confronts critical issues to demand urgent analytical attention and a harnessing of the economic potential at stake.
Author : Richard Miller Bird,François Vaillancourt Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 280 pages File Size : 46,9 Mb Release : 2006-01-01 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9780821365564
Perspectives on Fiscal Federalism by Richard Miller Bird,François Vaillancourt Pdf
This book addresses a variety of issues relating to intergovernmental finance and the provision and financing of local services including budgeting and financial management, the institutional framework for the conduct of intergovernmental relations, appropriate methods of service delivery in metropolitan agglomerations and remote rural areas, local government enterprises, user charges, property taxes, income and value-added taxes, natural resource taxes, and local business taxes. Throughout, the authors draw on experience both in Canada and in other decentralized countries and consider to vary.
Over the past decade, Indonesia has developed into an important regional and global economy, as well as an active participant in the G20. The chapters in this book document the substantial improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy that Indonesia has achieved, while also clearly laying out an agenda of measures that should be taken to safeguard these gains and further lower vulnerabilities going forward. Rather than just demonstrating progress in key macroeconomic indicators, the contributors have delved into the ways that global volatility, especially since 2008, has affected Indonesia and how that country has adjusted its policies to meet the new challenges.
A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies by Ms.Andrea Schaechter,Mr.Emre Alper,Ms.Elif Arbatli,Carlos Caceres,Giovanni Callegari,Mr.Marc Gerard,Jiri Jonas,Mr.Tidiane Kinda,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Anke Weber Pdf
This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.
Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards by Birkmann Pdf
Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards presents a broad range of current approaches to measuring vulnerability. It provides a comprehensive overview of different concepts at the global, regional, national, and local levels, and explores various schools of thought. More than 40 distinguished academics and practitioners analyse quantitative and qualitative approaches, and examine their strengths and limitations. This book contains concrete experiences and examples from Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe to illustrate the theoretical analyses.The authors provide answers to some of the key questions on how to measure vulnerability and they draw attention to issues with insufficient coverage, such as the environmental and institutional dimensions of vulnerability and methods to combine different methodologies.This book is a unique compilation of state-of-the-art vulnerability assessment and is essential reading for academics, students, policy makers, practitioners, and anybody else interested in understanding the fundamentals of measuring vulnerability. It is a critical review that provides important conclusions which can serve as an orientation for future research towards more disaster resilient communities.
Author : Mr.Omotunde E. G. Johnson Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 576 pages File Size : 49,7 Mb Release : 2002-04-29 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1589060121
Financial Risks, Stability, and Globalization by Mr.Omotunde E. G. Johnson Pdf
This book covers financial sector stability issues in the following areas: risk management and governance in financial institutions; financial crises and contagion; domestic monetary and financial policies; and international cooperation. The papers were presented at the IMF’s eighth Central Banking Seminar by authors from academia, investment banks, government, and international institutions. The papers discuss such subjects as bank soundness, systemic bank restructuring, and the safety and efficiency of systemically important payment systems and their interaction with the macroeconomic environment.
Public Financial Management and Its Emerging Architecture by Mr.M. Cangiano,Ms.Teresa R Curristine,Mr.Michel Lazare Pdf
The first two decades of the twenty-first century have witnessed an influx of innovations and reforms in public financial management. The current wave of reforms is markedly different from those in the past, owing to the sheer number of innovations, their widespread adoption, and the sense that they add up to a fundamental change in the way governments manage public money. This book takes stock of the most important innovations that have emerged over the past two decades.
Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth by Guillermo E. Perry,Luis Serv n,Rodrigo Suesc n Pdf
Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.
