Medium Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Russia S War In Ukraine And How It Affects Energy Security And Global Emission Targets

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Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets

Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Medium term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets Book PDF

Author : Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2024-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400264269

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Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets by Hugo Rojas-Romagosa Pdf

Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits to either country.

The Energy Security Gains from Strengthening Europe’s Climate Action

Geoffroy Dolphin,Mr. Romain A Duval,Romain Duval,Hugo Rojas-Romagosa,Galen Sher
The Energy Security Gains from Strengthening Europe s Climate Action Book PDF

Author : Geoffroy Dolphin,Mr. Romain A Duval,Romain Duval,Hugo Rojas-Romagosa,Galen Sher
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2024-05-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400265655

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The Energy Security Gains from Strengthening Europe’s Climate Action by Geoffroy Dolphin,Mr. Romain A Duval,Romain Duval,Hugo Rojas-Romagosa,Galen Sher Pdf

Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.

Global Trends 2040

National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2040 Book PDF

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Net Zero+ Climate and Economic Resilience in a Changing World

OECD
Net Zero Climate and Economic Resilience in a Changing World Book PDF

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 286 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2023-05-16
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264868793

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Net Zero+ Climate and Economic Resilience in a Changing World by OECD Pdf

This report provides a synthesis of the OECD Net Zero+ project, covering the first phase of an ongoing, cross-cutting initiative, representing a major step forward for an OECD whole-of-government approach to climate policy.

Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini,Pierpaolo Grippa,William Oman,Sha Yu
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation Book PDF

Author : Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini,Pierpaolo Grippa,William Oman,Sha Yu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2023-11-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400258220

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Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation by Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini,Pierpaolo Grippa,William Oman,Sha Yu Pdf

The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 109 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498324021

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Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

World Energy Outlook 2015

International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Energy Agency
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 700 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2015-11-25
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9264243658

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World Energy Outlook 2015 by International Energy Agency Pdf

The precipitous fall in oil prices, continued geopolitical instability and the ongoing global climate negotiations are witness to the dynamic nature of energy markets. In a time of so much uncertainty, understanding the implications of the shifting energy landscape for economic and environmental goals and for energy security is vital. The World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) will present updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in CO2 emissions and fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021

International Monetary Fund
Global Financial Stability Report April 2021 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513569673

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

The Global Energy Transition

Peter D Cameron,Xiaoyi Mu,Volker Roeben
The Global Energy Transition Book PDF

Author : Peter D Cameron,Xiaoyi Mu,Volker Roeben
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-01-14
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781509932498

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The Global Energy Transition by Peter D Cameron,Xiaoyi Mu,Volker Roeben Pdf

Global energy is on the cusp of change, and it has become almost a truism that energy is in transition. But what does this notion mean exactly? This book explores the working hypothesis that, characteristically, the energy system requires a strategy of the international community of states to deliver sustainable energy to which all have access. This strategy is for establishing rules-based governance of the global energy value-cycle. The book has four substantive parts that bring together contributions of leading experts from academia and practice on the law, policy, and economics of energy. Part I, 'The prospects of energy transition', critically discusses the leading forecasts for energy and the strategies that resource-rich countries may adopt. Part II, 'Rules-based multilateral governance of the energy sector', details the development and sources of rules on energy. Part III, 'Competition and regulation in transboundary energy markets', discusses principal instruments of rules-based governance of energy. Part IV, 'Attracting investments and the challenges of multi-level governance', focuses on the critical governance of the right investments. This book is a flagship publication of the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee. It launches the Hart series 'Global Energy Law and Policy' and is edited by the series general editors Professors Peter D Cameron and Volker Roeben, and also Dr Xiaoyi Mu.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

World Energy Outlook 2019

International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook 2019 Book PDF

Author : International Energy Agency
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 807 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2019-11-13
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9264523278

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World Energy Outlook 2019 by International Energy Agency Pdf

The World Energy Outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy-related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices. This year's edition updates the outlooks for all fuels, technologies and regions, based on the latest market data, policy initiatives and cost trends. In addition, the 2019 report tackles some key questions in depth: (i) What do the shale revolution, the rise of liquefied natural gas, the falling costs of renewables and the spread of digital technologies mean for tomorrow's energy supply?; (ii) How can the world get on a pathway to meet global climate targets and other sustainable energy goals?; (iii) What are the energy choices that will shape Africa's future, and how might the rise of the African consumer affect global trends?; (iv) How large a role could offshore wind play in the transformation of the energy sector?; (v) Could the world's gas grids one day deliver low-carbon energy?

Grenada

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Grenada Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2019-07-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498323147

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Grenada by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Pdf

Grenada has made significant strides to counter climate change but meeting the daunting remaining challenges will require domestic policy actions and sustained international support. Climate change is an existential threat to Grenada. Increasing frequency and intensity of coastal storms threatens infrastructure and livelihoods, as do increased risk of coastal flooding and drought. Notably, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 caused damages of over 200 percent of GDP. Grenada has recognized this by placing climate resilience at the center of its policy making and forging strategic alliances with key global climate finance providers. However, the challenges facing the country remain daunting and will require large increases in international support, both financial and technical, to assist the Grenadian authorities turn their impressive resilience plans into action.

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Signe Krogstrup,William Oman
Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation A Review of the Literature Book PDF

Author : Signe Krogstrup,William Oman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2019-09-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513511955

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Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature by Signe Krogstrup,William Oman Pdf

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Saving Oil in a Hurry

International Energy Agency
Saving Oil in a Hurry Book PDF

Author : International Energy Agency
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015060999482

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Saving Oil in a Hurry by International Energy Agency Pdf

During 2004, oil prices reached levels unprecedented in recent years. Although world oil markets remain adequately supplied, high oil prices reflect increasingly uncertain conditions, and many countries are considering ways to improve capacity to handle market volatility and possible supply disruptions in the future. In light of these concerns, this publication sets out a new quantitative assessment of the potential oil savings and costs of rapid oil demand restraint measures for transport, useful for both large-scale disruptions, and for smaller, localised supply disruptions in individual countries. It examines potential approaches for rapid uptake of measures such as telecommuting, ecodriving, and car-pooling; as well as discussing methodologies for adapting policy measures to national circumstances.