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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia by Nasha Ananchotikul,Miss Dulani Seneviratne Pdf
Given the heavy reliance on bank lending as the main source of financing in most Asian economies, banks could potentially play a pivotal role in monetary policy transmission. However, we find that Asia's bank lending channel or, more broadly, credit channel of domestic monetary policy is not very strong at the aggregate level. Using bank-level data for nine Asian economies during 2000-2013, we show that heterogeneity of bank characteristics (e.g., ownership type, financial position), degree of foreign bank penetration of the domestic banking sector, and global financial conditions all have a bearing on the response of domestic credit to changes in domestic monetary policy, and may account for the apparently weak credit channel at aggregate level.
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra,Ms.Filiz Unsal Pdf
The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.
Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting by Ila Patnaik,Ajay Shah,Rudrani Bhattacharya Pdf
Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to understand this setting, we explore a unified treatment of monetary policy transmission and exchangerate pass-through. The results for an emerging market, India, suggest that the most effective mechanism through which monetary policy impacts inflation runs through the exchange rate.
Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Mr.R. G Gelos,Mr.Thomas Harjes,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Yi Xue Pdf
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia by Ms.Rina Bhattacharya Pdf
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries by Mr.Il Houng Lee,Woon Gyu Choi Pdf
The paper explores the linkages between the global and domestic monetary gaps, and estimates the effects of monetary gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20 Asian countries for 1980-2008. We find a significant pass-through of the global monetary gap to domestic monetary gaps, which in turn affect output growth and inflation, in individual emerging market and developing countries in Asia. Notably, we provide evidence that the global monetary condition is partly responsible for the current account surplus in Asia. We also draw implications for monetary policy coordination for global rebalancing.
The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market by Kodjovi M. Eklou Pdf
Monetary policy transmission in EMs has been found to be weak historically due to under-developed financial markets and heavy central bank intervention in FX markets that undermine the exchange rate channel. Against this background, this paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy, including the role of external factors, in Malaysia and highlight findings that could be relevant for other EMs. We find an important role for the credit and the exchange rate channels. Further, we also find a complementary role for policy tools including Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI) and liquidity tools such as Statutory Reserve Requirement in shaping the transmission of monetary policy. We then explore the spillover effects of external global factors including global monetary policy and global commodity prices on monetary policy transmission in a small open economy such as Malaysia. The results show that while global commodity prices do not impair monetary policy transmission, global monetary policy tightening could complement domestic efforts to achieve price stability by inducing a global disinflation. Finally, monetary policy transmission is delayed and weakened in high inflationary environment, with the implication that more aggressive and preemptive policy actions may be needed in such cases.
Monetary Transmission by Mr.Ales Bulir,Mr.Jan Vlcek Pdf
We use two alternative representations of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in a sample of emerging market and low-income countries. We find a robust link from shortterm policy and interbank rates to longer-term bond yields. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary financial markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime: countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have “better behaved” yield curves than those with other monetary regimes.
Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific by Akhand Akhtar Hossain Pdf
The strength of this book is that it summarises a vast amount of the modern literature in monetary economics. . . the book provides detailed and clear descriptions of monetary models. . . This comprehensive volume is a useful compendium of the monetary economics literature of the second half of the 20th century, which has to a certain extent been over taken by events. Paul Wachtel, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature This well-researched and finely crafted book is a valuable addition to the literature on monetary policy in developing countries. It explains the concepts and tools of monetary policy in a simple manner and discusses how monetary policy works in developing Asia in a historical context within the framework of an outward-oriented development strategy. I am not aware of any other book that covers the organisational and institutional aspects of major central banks in developing Asia. Prema-chandra Athukorala, Australian National University This book elaborates the key concepts, principles and models of inflation and monetary policy and explains how they remain relevant and useful to the design and conduct of monetary policy in developing Asia. In this rapidly growing region, price stability remains important and therefore monetary policy has gained increasing importance. Even while emphasising the importance of the classical approach, the book discusses alternative frameworks and points out areas where a consensus is emerging. The review of the literature is extensive and careful. Along with developing this theme, the book reviews the structure and governance of most central banks in the Asia-Pacific and discusses how they conduct monetary policy to achieve price stability under different monetary policy frameworks. The book fills a gap in the central banking and monetary policy literature and has no close competitors. It should be useful to both students and policymakers in developing Asia. Salim Rashid, University of Illinois, US The 1997 East Asia crisis exposed many economic policy weaknesses in the Asia-Pacific region. In his latest book, Dr Hossain provides students with a refreshing up-to-date reference text on the concepts and principles of money, banking and finance in developing countries which differ in many ways to monetary institutions and practices in developed countries, which conventional monetary textbooks focus on. I thoroughly recommend it. A.P. Thirlwall, University of Kent, UK This timely book reviews the modern literature on inflation and monetary policy, and highlights contemporary issues in the design and conduct of monetary policy for price stability in developing Asia. Akhand Akhtar Hossain surveys the evolution of central banking and provides an introduction to the structure, function and governance of central banks in selected countries in the Asia-Pacific. The author also examines the major theories, models and approaches to inflation and monetary policy, and evaluates monetary policy regimes in selected countries in the Asia-Pacific in a historical context. This eloquent and comprehensible book will prove to be invaluable to undergraduate students on monetary theory and policy as well as banking and financial courses. Researchers exploring monetary policy concepts, principles and case studies will warmly welcome this book, as will policy-makers who have an interest in macroeconomics, monetary and financial policies.
Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia by Mr.Giovanni Ganelli,Nour Tawk Pdf
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.
The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses by Mr.Pragyan Deb,MissSanaa Nadeem,Mr.Shanaka J Peiris Pdf
Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs.
Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia by Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi Pdf
Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.
Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries by Ms.Prachi Mishra,Mr.Peter Montiel,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo Pdf
This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.
