New Techniques For Improving Climate Models Predictions And Projections
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New techniques for improving climate models, predictions and projections by Matthew Collins,Marcelo Barreiro,Roxy Mathew Koll,Sarah M. Kang,Thomas Frölicher,Karumuri Ashok,Guojian Wang,Renata Goncalves Tedeschi Pdf
Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies
Author : Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 252 pages File Size : 53,8 Mb Release : 2013-01-07 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309259781
A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling by Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Division on Earth and Life Studies Pdf
As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Author : Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 252 pages File Size : 48,5 Mb Release : 2013-01-24 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309259774
A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling by Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Pdf
As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections by Rao Kotamarthi,Katharine Hayhoe,Donald Wuebbles,Linda O. Mearns,Jennifer Jacobs,Jennifer Jurado Pdf
A practical guide to understanding, using and producing downscaled climate data, for researchers, graduate students, policy makers and practitioners.
Climate Change Modeling Methodology by Philip J. Rasch Pdf
The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.
National Research Council,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling
Author : National Research Council,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 145 pages File Size : 41,5 Mb Release : 2001-05-18 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309072571
Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling by National Research Council,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling Pdf
Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.
Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability- Volume 5 by Baojie He,Ayyoob Sharifi,Chi Feng Pdf
This volume of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability covers topics on greenhouse gas emissions, climatic impacts, climate models and prediction, and analytical methods. Issues related to two major greenhouse gas emissions, namely of carbon dioxide and methane, particularly in wetlands and agriculture sector, and radiative energy flux variations along with cloudiness are explored in this volume. Further, climate change impacts such as rainfall, heavy lake-effect snowfall, extreme temperature, impacts on grassland phenology, impacts on wind and wave energy, and heat island effects are explored. A major focus of this volume is on climate models that are of significance to projection and to visualise future climate pathways and possible impacts and vulnerabilities. Such models are widely used by scientists and for the generation of mitigation and adaptation scenarios. However, dealing with uncertainties has always been a critical issue in climate modelling. Therefore, methods are explored for improving climate projection accuracy through addressing the stochastic properties of the distributions of climate variables, addressing variational problems with unknown weights, and improving grid resolution in climatic models. Results reported in this book are conducive to a better understanding of global warming mechanisms, climate-induced impacts, and forecasting models. We expect the book to benefit decision makers, practitioners, and researchers in different fields and contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Understanding And Predicting Weather And Climate Is A Global Issue That Needs To Be Addressed With Utmost Earnestness. Severe Weather Events Like Heavy Rain, Tropical Cyclones, And The Vagaries Of Monsoon Affect Societies Significantly Worldwide. Prediction Of The Monsoon And Associated Rains Is A Challenging Task And Is Of Considerable Interest For The Scientific Community. To Date No Numerical Model Has Been Able To Simulate The Asian Monsoon And The Associated Rainfall, Especially Over India. With Recent Developments In Computing, Communications And Observation, It Is Only Appropriate That A Joint Endeavour Of The Scientists Be Undertaken To Meet These Vital Challenges. An Indo-Us Science And Technology Forum Was Established Recently To Enhance Joint Work And Cooperation Between The Scientific Communities Of Both Countries. A Workshop On Weather And Climate Modeling Was Organized In New Delhi During 7-9 February 2002 Under The Aegis Of This Forum. During The Workshop, Scientists From Both Countries Made Presentations And Suggested Areas Of Future Cooperation In Monsoon Prediction, Cloud Process Studies, Satellite Data Assimilation And Mesoscale Modeling. The Presentations Made At The Workshop Were Externally Reviewed And Have Been Put Together In This Book. It Is Hoped That The Proceedings Will Provide Information About State-Of-The-Art Prevailing In India And Usa On The Relevant Issues And Would Be Useful To Both Scientists And Students Pursuing Research In This Area.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 189 pages File Size : 42,5 Mb Release : 1999-05-27 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309173407
Making Climate Forecasts Matter by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability Pdf
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin by The BACC II Author Team Pdf
This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change along with the global effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, namely atmospheric aerosols and land-cover change. The evidence collected and presented in this book shows that the regional climate has already started to change and this is expected to continue. Projections of potential future climates show that the region will probably become considerably warmer and wetter in some parts, but dryer in others. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have already shown adjustments to increased temperatures and are expected to undergo further changes in the near future. The BACC II Author Team consists of 141 scientists from 12 countries, covering various disciplines related to climate research and related impacts. BACC II is a project of the Baltic Earth research network and contributes to the World Climate Research Programme.
Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry by Alberto Troccoli Pdf
This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 193 pages File Size : 54,7 Mb Release : 2010-09-08 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309161343
Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Pdf
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Climate Change and Climate Modeling by J. David Neelin Pdf
Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Climate Research Committee
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Climate Research Committee Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 77 pages File Size : 48,6 Mb Release : 1999-01-27 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309173438
Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Climate Research Committee Pdf
The U.S. government has pending before it the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is largely based on the threat GHGs pose to the global climate. Such an agreement would have significant economic and national security implications, and therefore any national policy decisions regarding this issue should rely in part on the best possible suite of scenarios from climate models. The U.S. climate modeling research community is a world leader in intermediate and smaller climate modeling efforts-research that has been instrumental in improving the understanding of specific components of the climate system. Somewhat in contrast, the United States has been less prominent in producing high-end climate modeling results, which have been featured in recent international assessments of the impacts of climate change. The fact that U.S. contributions of these state-of-the-art results have been relatively sparse has prompted a number of prominent climate researchers to question the current organization and support of climate modeling research in the United States, and has led ultimately to this report.