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Politics And Economics Of External Debt Crisis by Miguel S. Wionczek,Luciano Tomassini Pdf
Since 1981 Latin America has been in the midst of a protracted external debt crisis due, among other reasons, to emergency borrowing at record-high real interest rates and the decline in the region's export proceeds. Until now, most literature on the subject originated in industrial lender countries, whose primary concern is the impact of the debt
The Politics of Global Debt by Stephen P. Riley Pdf
The Politics of Global Debt is a detailed political analysis of the origins and consequences of the `global debt crisis' which emerged in the early 1980s. It assesses both `imperialist' and `New Right' interpretations of the crisis, and also presents a series of case studies of the effects of external debt upon Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia. The book focusses upon the `sovereign debt' of states, and its management, and examines the ways in which global economic structures, inefficient policies, weak institutions, and corrupt political leaders contribute to a global debt crisis which has both international and domestic roots.
Theoretical and Policy-Oriented Aspects of the External Debt Economics by Chris Czerkawski Pdf
The past approach to the international debt crisis has been traditionally based on conventional banking principle in which debt had to be paid back in fuH and in time. International lending was a function of the perceived credit standing of debtor country and the return on investment (ROI). If debtor country run into difficulties and had problems with service payments - it was generally assumed that the debt-related expenditures were mismanaged. With economic stability and firm financial rules - the debt crisis was supposed to disappear after application of appropriate adjustment measures. However in the world of inconsistent lending criteria greater uncertainty and increased volatility of expectations - the problem has continued to get worse. At the beginning of the 1990s a number of countries are more indebted than at any other time in the past. Until mid 1980s extern al debt economics has been rather a disembodied concept for most economists and business leaders. The main reason for this neglect of one of the most important macroeconomic categories was difficulty of distinguishing terminologically and methodologically the domestic determinants of national expenditures from the external ones. Then there were conceptual problems in distinguishing the functional determinants of macroeconomic liquidity from external and domestic determinants of macro-economic solvency. Moreover many studies of the debt crisis were one-sided. Usually debt was seen as a 'white-black' phenomenon with debtor countries accusing creditor countries for causing the crisis and vice versa.
Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Political Dimensions of the International Debt Crisis by Bonnie K. Campbell Pdf
Five papers on the political dimensions of the debt crisis at national, international and geo-political levels. There are case studies of Sudan, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Mexico. One conclusion is that the erosion of the powers and legitimacy of government is the most damaging consequence.
Debt Crisis in the Third World by Yanhui Zhang Pdf
Seminar paper from the year 2003 in the subject Politics - Topic: Globalization, Political Economics, grade: 1,3, University of Northampton, course: Global Political Economy, language: English, abstract: [...] In the 1970s, the world trade framework provided possibilities and opportunities for poor economies to grow. However, the harsh reality of poverty in those new independent nations was the main obstacle for any development. Their economic conditions suggested that borrowing money and gaining foreign aids were reasonable courses in the 1970s. In the meantime, the ex-colonial powers began rising awareness of remaining their influence over their past conquests. Considering of remaining economic dependency, western countries showed great willingness of lending money to poor nations. The result was an unprecedented flow of sources from the developed countries to the developing world. A large proportion of sources were in form of loans and international aids from commercial banks and western governments. Many developing countries had very large debts, and the amount of money they owed was quickly increasing. In 1982, Mexico came finally to the brink of default on its foreign debt. The critical situation marked the beginning of the “Third World Debt Crisis”. In 1970, the fifteen heavily indebted nations (using the World Bank classification of 1989) had an external public debt of $17.923 billion – which amounted to 9.8% for their GNP. By 1987, these same nations owed $402.171 billion, or 47.5% of their GNP. Interest payments owed by these countries went from $2.789 billion in 1970 to $36.251 billion in 1987. In 1991, the developing world as a whole owed a total external debt of $1.362 trillion, or 126.5% of their total exports of goods and services that year (Ferraro, V. & Rosser, M., 1994). Trying to pay off the debt became a serious problem for these countries. The nature and terms as well as the political conditions with them caused great hardship for their people. The debt crisis in the third world is highly linked to the issues of western policies, interest rates, export values and confidence in the international banking system. The crisis is thus an international phenomenon and to understand it fully needs a global perspective. This paper will examine the origins of the debt crisis in the third world in the first part and the consequences in the second part. The third part will give solutions and recommendations followed by conclusion in the fourth part.
The Political Economy of International Debt by Michel Henri Bouchet Pdf
This original work combines technical analysis of the North-South, Third World debt crisis with a description of the political frameworks used to analyze this issue. . . . Business professionals who want a deeper understanding of the debt question, as well as scholars of international banking and economic development, can use this book as a roadmap toward understanding the assumptions behind debt analysis, as well as a way to frame more clearly the issues associated with efforts to resolve this lingering international economic problem. International Executive In this book, Dr. Bouchet, a leading economist and banker who has more than ten years' direct experience in the international lending process, cuts through the confusion that surrounds the subject. His clear and original analysis delineates the debt situation in terms of the behavior of the major participants, their conflicting motivations, and the external pressures and theoretical frameworks that determine their roles and actions. A wealth of previously unpublished data and the author's constructive synthesis of these disparate elements will enable professionals, scholars, and students to develop more realistic approaches to this intractable problem.
Growth and External Debt Management by H.W. Singer,Soumitra Sharma Pdf
This volume contains a series of 21 papers presented at the International Conference of Economists, held at the University of Zagreb, Yugoslavia. The contributors discuss policy issues of macro-economic managment and offer general and overall approaches to the debt and growth problems of the 1980s.
Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone--including the dramatic capitulation of Greece's short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015. Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance.
Author : Martin Eichenbaum,Jonathan A. Parker Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 448 pages File Size : 53,7 Mb Release : 2016-06-22 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780226395746
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 by Martin Eichenbaum,Jonathan A. Parker Pdf
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises by Paolo Manasse,Mr.Axel Schimmelpfennig,Nouriel Roubini Pdf
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective by Barry Eichengreen,Peter H. Lindert Pdf
Eichengreen and Lindert bring together original studies that assess the historical record to see what lessons can be learned for resolving today's crisis.
the growth in government domestic debt: changing burdens and risks by James A. Hanson Pdf
Abstract: This paper analyzes the recent growth of government domestic debt, including central bank debt, using a new data base on government domestic debt in developing countries with large, open financial systems. On average, government domestic debt grew much faster than GDP between 1994 and 2004 and became larger than foreign debt. The rapid growth of domestic debt reflects financial crises, the growth of central bank debt and the greater attractiveness to governments of issuing domestic debt as well as the recent increase in demands for it. Both its attractiveness and the increased demands for it reflect the current benign international environment to some degree. The main risk of government debt, domestic or foreign, remains its overall size relative to a country's fiscal, financial, and political institutions. While government domestic debt can help the domestic private capital market, large domestic debt, like large external debt, has risks. For example, there can be "sudden stops" in the demand for domestic debt as well as in foreign lending. Governments need to be aware of the risks and burdens in domestic debt issue-crowding out small borrowers, transferring risks to banks when issuing longer maturity, fixed-interest domestic debt and reducing returns, and imposing risks on holders of pensions, annuities, and life insurance policies. Growth of central bank debt can divert central banks from pursuit of the objective of price stability.
