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Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World by Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson Pdf
The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making. The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making.
The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions! How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don't past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making-and helps you optimize every decision you make. Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that's nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck. Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you'll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You'll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming. You're human. You'll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there. * Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold'em What to do about the risks and randomness you can't eliminate * Follow your instinct or follow the rules? When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it * Know when it's time to decide How to know when you know enough * Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments Hire a guide or make a map?
On the Move to Meaningful Internet Systems: OTM 2010 by Robert Meersman,Tharam Dillon,Pilar Herrero Pdf
This volume constitutes the refereed proceedings of 11 international workshops held as part of OTM 2010 in Hersonissos, Greece in October 2010. The 68 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from a total of 127 submissions to the workshops. The volume starts with 14 poster papers of the OTM 2010 main conferences COOPIS 2010, DOA 2010 and OSBASE 2010. Topics of the workshop papers are adaption in service-oriented architectures, ambient intelligence and reasoning, data integration approaches, modeling in ADI, web and enterprise data visualization, enterprise integration and semantics, industrial enterprise interoperability and networking, process management in distributed information system development, improving social networking, ontology engineering, master data management and metamodeling, extensions to fact-oriented modeling, logic and derivation, patterns in input data models.
Managing Risk and Uncertainty by Richard Friberg Pdf
A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
The #1 international bestselling author of The Gray Rhino offers a bold new framework for understanding and re-shaping our relationship with risk and uncertainty to live more productive and successful lives. What drives a sixty-four-year-old woman to hurl herself over Niagara Falls in a barrel? Why do we often create bigger risks than the risks we try to avoid? Why are corporate boards newly worried about risky personal behavior by CEOs? Why are some nations quicker than others to recognize and manage risks like pandemics, technological change, and climate crisis? The answers define each person, organization, and society as distinctively as a fingerprint. Understanding the often-surprising origins of these risk fingerprints can open your eyes, inspire new habits, catalyze innovation and creativity, improve teamwork, and provide a beacon in a world that seems suddenly more uncertain than ever. How you see risk and what you do about it depend on your personality and experiences. How you make these cost-benefit calculations depend on your culture, your values, the people in the room, and even unexpected things like what you’ve eaten recently, the temperature, the music playing, or the fragrance in the air. Being alert to these often-unconscious influences will help you to seize opportunity and avoid danger. You Are What You Risk is a clarion call for an entirely new conversation about our relationship with risk and uncertainty. In this ground-breaking, accessible and eminently timely book, Michele Wucker examines why it’s so important to understand your risk fingerprint and how to make your risk relationship work better in business, life, and the world. Drawing on compelling risk stories around the world and weaving in economics, anthropology, sociology, and psychology research, Wucker bridges the divide between professional and lay risk conversations. She challenges stereotypes about risk attitudes, re-frames how gender and risk are related, and shines new light on generational differences. She shows how the new science of “risk personality” is re-shaping business and finance, how healthy risk ecosystems support economies and societies, and why embracing risk empathy can resolve conflicts. Wucker shares insights, practical tools, and proven strategies that will help you to understand what makes you who you are –and, in turn, to make better choices, both big and small.
When is it morally acceptable to expose others to risk? Most moral philosophers have had very little to say in answer to that question, but here is a moral philosopher who puts it at the centre of his investigations.
Free Market Economics, Third Edition by Steven Kates Pdf
If you are genuinely interested in what is wrong with modern economics, this is where you can find out. If you would like to understand the flaws in Keynesian macro, this is the book you must read. If you are interested in marginal analysis properly explained, you again need to read this book. Based on the classical principles of John Stuart Mill, it is what is missing today; a text based on explaining how an economy works from a supply-side perspective.
Gabriel José Corrêa Mograbi,Carlos Eduardo Batista de Sousa
Author : Gabriel José Corrêa Mograbi,Carlos Eduardo Batista de Sousa Publisher : Frontiers Media SA Page : 125 pages File Size : 41,7 Mb Release : 2015-10-15 Category : Decision making ISBN : 9782889196685
Decision-Making Experiments under a Philosophical Analysis: Human Choice as a Challenge for Neuroscience by Gabriel José Corrêa Mograbi,Carlos Eduardo Batista de Sousa Pdf
This introduction just aims to be a fast foreword to the special topic now turned into an e-book. The Editorial "Decision-Making Experiments under a Philosophical Analysis: Human Choice as a Challenge for Neuroscience" alongside with my opinion article "Neurophilosophical considerations on decision making: Pushing-up the frontiers without disregarding their foundations" play the real role of considering in more details the articles and the whole purpose of this e-book. What I must highlight in this foreword is that our intention with such a project was to deepen into the very foundations of our current paradigms in decision neuroscience and to philosophically moot its foundations and repercussions. Normal Science (a term coined by Philosopher Thomas Kuhn) works under a research consensus among a scientific community: A shared paradigm, consolidated methods, widespread convictions. Pragmatically, winning formulas must be kept, although, not at any cost. What differentiates a gifted and revolutionary scientist from a more bureaucratic colleague is the capacity and willingness of constantly reevaluating, depurating and refining his/her own paradigm. That is best strategy to avoid that a paradigm itself would gradually come under challenge. In my view, some achievements, in this sense, were brought about in our project. The e-book will be inspiring and informative for both neuroscientists that are concerned with the very foundations of their works and for philosophers that are not blind to empirical evidence. Kant once said: “Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind”. Paraphrasing Kant we could say: Philosophy without science is empty, science without philosophy is blind.
Rationality in an Uncertain World by Gerhard Banse,Imre Hronszky,Gordon L. Nelson Pdf
Die Beiträge dieses Bandes, der aus dem ersten Symposium des ”Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalising World“ in Budapest hervorgegangen ist, widmen sich zwei Problemstellungen: Erstens der Möglichkeit rationaler Entscheidungen im Bereich technischer Entwicklung unter den Bedingungen von Ungewißheit (”uncertainty“), d.h. dem Verständnis von, dem Leben in und dem Umgang mit einer ”ungewissen“ Welt. Zweitens setzen sie sich mit den Perspektiven technischer Innovationen in einem sich wandelnden sozialen Umfeld auseinander, vorrangig aus der Perspektive ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit und ihrer sozialen Voraussetzungen. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei die Themen: Rationalität und Ungewißheit, Nachhaltige Technologien in einer sich wandelnden sozialen Umwelt, Technologiepolitik in einer sich globalisierenden Welt, Schlußfolgerungen für Politik und (universitäre) Bildung. Da die Autoren unterschiedliche Disziplinen der Natur-, Technik-, Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften sowie Politik und Wirtschaft repräsentieren, ergibt sich ein aufschlußreiches Panorama unterschiedlicher Sichten, Herangehensweisen, Prioritätensetzungen, Lösungsvorschläge und Erfahrungen.
Brand risk is often narrowly defined as risk to reputation. Yet risk and uncertainty are evident in many aspects of brand performance and marketing operations. Considered and responsible risk-taking is central to effective brand management. Risk literacy is the marketer’s third necessary competence, alongside strategic insight and financial understanding. In Brand Risk, a practical and accessible book for those who hold responsibilities in marketing or risk management, David Abrahams brings together relevant risk thinking and a range of techniques for the evaluation of brand exposures and opportunities - whether in response to the ambitions of a key business project, new market conditions or shareholder concern. A balanced review of the subject is enriched by reference to topics of current interest and is supported by illustrative examples throughout. Presenting the essentials of brand management and risk management side-by-side, Brand Risk offers graduated and complementary approaches to brand risk assessment, from the intuitive to the data-driven.
Management Control and Uncertainty by M. Association Pdf
Management Control and Uncertainty recognizes that all control takes place under conditions of uncertainty: it does now, and it always has done. In this edited collection, the contributing authors examine different aspects of management control systems in the modern world whilst paying more explicit attention to the ubiquitous nature of uncertainty
Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty by Chris Chapman,Stephen Ward Pdf
This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.
