Robustness Of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations To Alternative Assumptions And Methodologies

Author : Peter B. Clark,Tamim Bayoumi,Steven A. Symansky,Mark Taylor
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Electronic books
ISBN : 145184347X

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Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies by Peter B. Clark,Tamim Bayoumi,Steven A. Symansky,Mark Taylor Pdf

This paper explores a number of methodological issues that arise in the calculation of equilibrium exchange rates, which are identified in this paper as those real effective exchange rates consistent with macroeconomic equilibrium, i.e., internal and external balance. A partial equilibrium, comparative static analysis is presented and the methodology is applied to the break-up of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system. Then the dynamic interaction between the current account and the stock of net foreign assets is examined. Finally, the analysis uses a more general equilibrium approach by relying on simulations using MULTIMOD, a multicountry econometric model. The paper demonstrates the extent to which the equilibrium exchange rate calculations depend upon alternative assumptions regarding factors that affect internal and external balance. In addition, results obtained using the comparative static and dynamic macroeconomic approaches are compared.

Author : Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Foreign exchange rates
ISBN : UCSD:31822016815946

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Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies by Tamim Bayoumi Pdf

Author : John Williamson
Publisher : Peterson Institute
Page : 608 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0881320765

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Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates by John Williamson Pdf

The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 1994-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451850956

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Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/1 - WP/94/76) by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 147 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2007-08-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589066496

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IEO Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office Pdf

The IMF is charged by its Articles of Agreement and a 1977 Executive Board Decision to exercise surveillance over the international monetary system and members’ exchange rate policies. The overriding question addressed by this evaluation is whether, over the 1999–2005 period, the IMF fulfilled this core responsibility. The main finding is that the IMF was simply not as effective as it needs to be in both its analysis and advice and in its dialogue with member countries. The evidence supporting this conclusion, along with other key findings, is set out in this report. The report also presents a detailed set of recommendations that could go a long way in improving the quality and effectiveness of IMF surveillance.

Author : Ronald MacDonald,Jerome L. Stein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 353 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401144117

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Equilibrium Exchange Rates by Ronald MacDonald,Jerome L. Stein Pdf

How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Author : Jessica James,Ian Marsh,Lucio Sarno
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 674 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2012-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118445778

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Handbook of Exchange Rates by Jessica James,Ian Marsh,Lucio Sarno Pdf

Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Author : Rebecca Driver,Peter J N Sinclair,Christoph Thoenissen
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 436 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2013-04-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134261987

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Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy by Rebecca Driver,Peter J N Sinclair,Christoph Thoenissen Pdf

Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.

Author : Ronald MacDonald,Ian Marsh
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 226 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475729979

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Exchange Rate Modelling by Ronald MacDonald,Ian Marsh Pdf

Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.

Author : Mr.Atsushi Iimi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2006-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451864007

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Exchange Rate Misalignment by Mr.Atsushi Iimi Pdf

Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.

Author : Jerome L. Stein
Publisher : Physica
Page : 125 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642592461

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The Globalization of Markets by Jerome L. Stein Pdf

The interrelated issues analyzed in this book are as follows. With the integration of Europe, there are free movements in goods, services, short and long term capital, and direct investment. The German mark is the key currency in Europe and its value will affect the equilibrium bilateral exchange rates of the other currencies in the European Union. It is important to examine the following issues. What have been the fundamental determinants of the real value of the mark since the period of floating? What will be the effects of German integration upon exchange rates? How can we measure whether currencies are misaligned or if exchange rates are at their equilibrium values? Are short term capital flows destabilizing and, if so, should they be discouraged through a transactions tax? Under what conditions does the formation of a regional trading bloc help or hinder the liberalization of world trade? What are the determinants of foreign direct investment made by multinational enterprises? There is a unity to this book. The authors are senior scholars who approach the subject from the theoretical, policy oriented and econometric points of view. Jerome L. Stein Contents JAMES TOBIN A Currency Transactions Tax. Why and How CHARLES A. GOODHART Discussant to Professor J. Tobin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 JEROME L. STEIN and KARLHANS SAUERNHEIMER The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany 13 PETER B. CLARK Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 G. C. LIM A Note on Estimating Dynamic Economic Models of the Real Exchange Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Author : Ibrahim Elbadawi,Linda Kaltani,Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Absorptive Capacities
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Post-conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, and Catch-up Growth by Ibrahim Elbadawi,Linda Kaltani,Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Pdf

Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak immediately after peace is attained and decline thereafter. Aid composition broadly reflects post-conflict priorities, with large parts of aid financing social expenditure and infrastructure investment. Aid has significant short-term effects on the real exchange rate (RER), as inferred from the behavior of RER in the world. While moderate RER overvaluation is observed in post-conflicts, it cannot be traced down to the aid flows. The empirical evidence on world growth reveals new findings about the pattern of catch-up growth during post-conflicts and the role of key growth determinants on post-conflict growth. Aid is an important determinant of growth, both generally and more strongly during post-conflict periods. Because RER misalignment reduces growth, RER overvaluation during post-conflicts reduces catch-up growth. Aid and RER overvaluation combined also lower growth. But the negative growth effect of RER overvaluation declines with financial development.

Author : Giancarlo Gandolfo
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 648 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2002-06-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3540417303

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International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics by Giancarlo Gandolfo Pdf

"This book deals with the financial side of international economics and covers all aspects of international finance. There are many books and articles by exponents of alternative points of view. I know of no other book that provides the scope, balance, objectivity and rigor of the book." (Professor Jerome L. Stein, Brown University) From the reviews: "In this survey of international finance and open-economy macroeconomics, Gandolfo succeeds in meeting the needs of advanced undergraduate or lower-level graduate students through a largely textual and graphical approach, while at the same time presenting in the appendices explicit mathematical analyses for more advanced graduate students." (Journal of Banking & Finance 2004)

Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 51,5 Mb
Release : 2007-03-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134801251

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Exchange Rate Economics by Ronald MacDonald Pdf

First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Author : M. Rusydi,S. Islam
Publisher : Springer
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2007-07-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230592483

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Quantitative Exchange Rate Economics in Developing Countries by M. Rusydi,S. Islam Pdf

This book examines the options for adopting an appropriate model of the exchange rate determination and its associated regime suitable for developing countries. It shows that a credible exchange rate regime and policy may mitigate the flight to currency from broad money, and ensure stability and certainty for private sectors.