Tenth Conference On Probability And Statistics In Atmospheric Sciences

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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Daniel S. Wilks
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Book PDF

Author : Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 648 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2005-12-12
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780080456225

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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences by Daniel S. Wilks Pdf

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. * Presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting * Features numerous worked examples and exercises * Covers Model Output Statistic (MOS) with an introduction to the Kalman filter, an approach that tolerates frequent model changes * Includes a detailed section on forecast verification New in this Edition: * Expanded treatment of resampling tests and coverage of key analysis techniques * Updated treatment of ensemble forecasting * Edits and revisions throughout the text plus updated references

Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics

John A. Swets
Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics Book PDF

Author : John A. Swets
Publisher : Psychology Press
Page : 333 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2014-02-25
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781317779711

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Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics by John A. Swets Pdf

Signal detection theory--as developed in electrical engineering and based on statistical decision theory--was first applied to human sensory discrimination 40 years ago. The theoretical intent was to provide a valid model of the discrimination process; the methodological intent was to provide reliable measures of discrimination acuity in specific sensory tasks. An analytic method of detection theory, called the relative operating characteristic (ROC), can isolate the effect of the placement of the decision criterion, which may be variable and idiosyncratic, so that a pure measure of intrinsic discrimination acuity is obtained. For the past 20 years, ROC analysis has also been used to measure the discrimination acuity or inherent accuracy of a broad range of practical diagnostic systems. It was widely adopted by methodologists in the field of information retrieval, is increasingly used in weather forecasting, and is the generally preferred method in clinical medicine, primarily in radiology. This book attends to both themes, ROC analysis in the psychology laboratory and in practical diagnostic settings, and to their essential unity. The focus of this book is on detection and recognition as fundamental tasks that underlie most complex behaviors. As defined here, they serve to distinguish between two alternative, confusable stimulus categories, which may be perceptual or cognitive categories in the psychology laboratory, or different states of the world in practical diagnostic tasks. This book on signal detection theory in psychology was written by one of the developers of the theory, who co-authored with D.M. Green the classic work published in this area in 1966 (reprinted in 1974 and 1988). This volume reviews the history of the theory in engineering, statistics, and psychology, leading to the separate measurement of the two independent factors in all discrimination tasks, discrimination acuity and decision criterion. It extends the previous book to show how in several areas of psychology--in vigilance and memory--what had been thought to be discrimination effects were, in reality, effects of a changing criterion. The book shows that data plotted in terms of the relative operating characteristic have essentially the same form across the wide range of discrimination tasks in psychology. It develops the implications of this ROC form for measures of discrimination acuity, pointing up the valid ones and identifying several common, but invalid, ones. The area under the binormal ROC is seen to be supported by the data; the popular measures d' and percent correct are not. An appendix describes the best, current programs for fitting ROCs and estimating their parameters, indices, and standard errors. The application of ROC analysis to diagnostic tasks is also described. Diagnostic accuracy in a wide range of tasks can be expressed in terms of the ROC area index. Choosing the appropriate decision criterion for a given diagnostic setting--rather than considering some single criterion to be natural and fixed--has a major impact on the efficacy of a diagnostic process or system. Illustrated here by separate chapters are diagnostic systems in radiology, information retrieval, aptitude testing, survey research, and environments in which imminent dangerous conditions must be detected. Data from weather forecasting, blood testing, and polygraph lie detection are also reported. One of these chapters describes a general approach to enhancing the accuracy of diagnostic systems.

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

Richard W. Katz (ed),Allan H. Murphy
Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts Book PDF

Author : Richard W. Katz (ed),Allan H. Murphy
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1997-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521434201

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Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts by Richard W. Katz (ed),Allan H. Murphy Pdf

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences

Allan Murphy,Richard W. Katz
Probability Statistics And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences Book PDF

Author : Allan Murphy,Richard W. Katz
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 547 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2019-07-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781000236323

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Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences by Allan Murphy,Richard W. Katz Pdf

Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.

An Invitation to Cognitive Science

Anonim
An Invitation to Cognitive Science Book PDF

Author : Anonim
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 972 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Cognition
ISBN : 0262650460

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An Invitation to Cognitive Science by Anonim Pdf

Programs and Accomplishments

United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office
Programs and Accomplishments Book PDF

Author : United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 1974
Category : Weather forecasting
ISBN : UCSD:31822009780099

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Programs and Accomplishments by United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office Pdf

Programs & Accomplishments

United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office
Programs Accomplishments Book PDF

Author : United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Electronic
ISBN : PSU:000072833377

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Programs & Accomplishments by United States. National Weather Service. Systems Development Office Pdf