The Economics Of Sovereign Debt And Default

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The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default

Author : Mark Aguiar,Manuel Amador
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691231433

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The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default by Mark Aguiar,Manuel Amador Pdf

An integrated approach to the economics of sovereign default Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt—the lack of strong legal enforcement—and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to “dilute” existing creditors, and sovereign debt’s distortion of investment and growth. The book uses the tractable framework to isolate how each additional friction affects the equilibrium outcome, and illustrates its counterpart using state-of-the-art computational modeling. The novel approach presented here contrasts the outcome of a constrained efficient allocation—one chosen to maximize the joint surplus of creditors and government—with the competitive equilibrium outcome. This allows for a clear analysis of the extent to which equilibrium prices efficiently guide the government’s debt and default decisions, and of what drives divergences with the efficient outcome. Providing an integrated approach to sovereign debt and default, this incisive and authoritative book is an ideal resource for researchers and graduate students interested in this important topic.

Why Not Default?

Author : Jerome E. Roos
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 398 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2019-02-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691184937

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Why Not Default? by Jerome E. Roos Pdf

How creditors came to wield unprecedented power over heavily indebted countries—and the dangers this poses to democracy The European debt crisis has rekindled long-standing debates about the power of finance and the fraught relationship between capitalism and democracy in a globalized world. Why Not Default? unravels a striking puzzle at the heart of these debates—why, despite frequent crises and the immense costs of repayment, do so many heavily indebted countries continue to service their international debts? In this compelling and incisive book, Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone—including the dramatic capitulation of Greece’s short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015. Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance. This important book shows how the profound transformation of the capitalist world economy over the past four decades has endowed private and official creditors with unprecedented structural power over heavily indebted borrowers, enabling them to impose painful austerity measures and enforce uninterrupted debt service during times of crisis—with devastating social consequences and far-reaching implications for democracy.

Sovereign Debt

Author : Rob Quail
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 435 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2011-02-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118017555

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Sovereign Debt by Rob Quail Pdf

An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.

Why Not Default?

Author : Jerome E. Roos
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 412 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2021-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691217437

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Why Not Default? by Jerome E. Roos Pdf

How creditors came to wield unprecedented power over heavily indebted countries—and the dangers this poses to democracy The European debt crisis has rekindled long-standing debates about the power of finance and the fraught relationship between capitalism and democracy in a globalized world. Why Not Default? unravels a striking puzzle at the heart of these debates—why, despite frequent crises and the immense costs of repayment, do so many heavily indebted countries continue to service their international debts? In this compelling and incisive book, Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone—including the dramatic capitulation of Greece’s short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015. Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance. This important book shows how the profound transformation of the capitalist world economy over the past four decades has endowed private and official creditors with unprecedented structural power over heavily indebted borrowers, enabling them to impose painful austerity measures and enforce uninterrupted debt service during times of crisis—with devastating social consequences and far-reaching implications for democracy.

Sovereign Debt

Author : S. Ali Abbas,Alex Pienkowski,Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 455 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198850823

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Sovereign Debt by S. Ali Abbas,Alex Pienkowski,Kenneth Rogoff Pdf

This book is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners, and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject.

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises

Author : Federico Sturzenegger,Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 399 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2007-01-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262195539

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Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises by Federico Sturzenegger,Jeromin Zettelmeyer Pdf

Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.

A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles

Author : Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza,MissZhanwei Z. Yue
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2011-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781462302222

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A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles by Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza,MissZhanwei Z. Yue Pdf

Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.

Sovereign Debt

Author : Vinod K. Aggarwal,Brigitte Granville
Publisher : Chatham House (Formerly Riia)
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105114378420

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Sovereign Debt by Vinod K. Aggarwal,Brigitte Granville Pdf

This work examines the ongoing debate on resolving sovereign debt defaults and alleviating the debt burden of heavily indebted poor countries. Concentrating primarily on the period from the 1982 and focusing on money owed to both the public and the private sector, the volume examines the origins of debt crises, rescheduling tactics, and efforts to create a more enduring solution to the problem of coping with debt, as well as its efficacy. Policy recommendations are put forward for dealing with the onerous problem of debt default and rescheduling.

The Costs of Sovereign Default

Author : Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Bank failures
ISBN : IND:30000126772031

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The Costs of Sovereign Default by Eduardo Borensztein Pdf

This paper evaluates empirically four types of cost that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis

Author : Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Philippe Martin,Todd Messer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2023-08-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400245503

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The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Philippe Martin,Todd Messer Pdf

Despite a formal ‘no-bailout clause,’ we estimate significant net present value transfers from the European Union to Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to a whopping 43% (Greece) of 2010 output during the Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed differences across countries. We characterize bailout size and likelihood as a function of the economic fundamentals (economic activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a ‘Northern view’ (transfers weaken fiscal discipline). While a stronger no-bailout commitment reduces risk-shifting, it may not be optimal from the perspective of the creditor country, even ex-ante, if it increases the risk of immediate insolvency for high debt countries. Hence, the model provides a potential justification for the often decried policy of ‘kicking the can down the road.’ Mapping the model to the estimated transfers, we find that the main purpose of the outsized Greek bailout was to prevent an exit from the eurozone and possible contagion. Bailouts to avoid sovereign default were comparatively modest.

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Author : Juan Carlos Hatchondo,Mr.Leonardo Martinez,Mr.Francisco Roch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463933159

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Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium by Juan Carlos Hatchondo,Mr.Leonardo Martinez,Mr.Francisco Roch Pdf

This paper finds optimal fiscal rule parameter values and measures the effects of imposing fiscal rules using a default model calibrated to an economy that in the absence of a fiscal rule pays a significant sovereign default premium. The paper also studies the case in which the government conducts a voluntary debt restructuring to capture the capital gains from the increase in its debt market value implied by a rule announcement. In addition, the paper shows how debt ceilings may reduce the procyclicality of fiscal policy and thus consumption volatility.

The Political Economy of Sovereign Default

Author : Sebastian Hohmann
Publisher : Graduate Institute Publications
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2012-08-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9782940503087

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The Political Economy of Sovereign Default by Sebastian Hohmann Pdf

What do self-interested governments’ needs to maintain loyal groups of supporters imply for sovereign incentives to repay debt? Many sovereign defaults have occurred at relatively low levels of debt, while some highly indebted nations continue to honour their obligations. This poses a problem for traditional models of sovereign debt, which rely on the threat of economic sanctions to explain why and when a representative agent seeking to maximise social welfare would choose debt-repayment. The political-economy model of sovereign default developed in this ePaper shows that those governments that depend on small groups of loyalists drawn from large populations are more likely to default on sovereign debt than those governments dependent on large groups of supporters. These findings contribute to a growing body of literature on the importance of institutions in sovereign debt and default.

Sovereign Default Risk Valuation

Author : Jochen Andritzky
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 251 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2006-11-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540374497

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Sovereign Default Risk Valuation by Jochen Andritzky Pdf

Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.

Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

Author : Juan Carlos Hatchondo,Mr.Leonardo Martinez
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2013-07-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475586176

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Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt by Juan Carlos Hatchondo,Mr.Leonardo Martinez Pdf

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances off increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.

Banks, Government Bonds, and Default

Author : Nicola Gennaioli,Alberto Martin,Stefano Rossi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2014-07-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498391993

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Banks, Government Bonds, and Default by Nicola Gennaioli,Alberto Martin,Stefano Rossi Pdf

We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.