The Macroeconomic Relevance Of Credit Flows

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The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows

Alexander Herman,Ms.Deniz Igan,Mr.Juan Sole
The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows Book PDF

Author : Alexander Herman,Ms.Deniz Igan,Mr.Juan Sole
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2015-06-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513516448

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The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows by Alexander Herman,Ms.Deniz Igan,Mr.Juan Sole Pdf

This paper exploits the Financial Accounts of the United States to derive long time series of bank and nonbank credit to different sectors, and to examine the cyclical behavior of these series in relation to (i) the long-term business cycle, (ii) recessions and recoveries, and (iii) systemic financial crises. We find that bank and nonbank credit exhibit different dynamics throughout the business cycle. This diverging cyclical behavior of output and bank and nonbank credit argues for placing greater emphasis on sector-specific macroprudential measures to contain risks to the financial system, rather than using interest rates to address any vulnerabilities. Finally, we examine the role of bank and nonbank credit in the creation of financial interconnections and illustrate a method to conduct macro-financial stability assessments.

Macroprudential Policy

R. Barwell
Macroprudential Policy Book PDF

Author : R. Barwell
Publisher : Springer
Page : 544 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2013-05-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137274465

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Macroprudential Policy by R. Barwell Pdf

The financial crisis of 2008 is probably the single most important economic event in post-war history. Macroprudential policy is the response to that crisis – a determined attempt to stabilize the financial system. This book explains why it is necessary, who will be responsible for executing this responsibility and how they will go about doing it.

Slowdown of Credit Flows in Jordan in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Slowdown of Credit Flows in Jordan in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2010-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455209569

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Slowdown of Credit Flows in Jordan in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan Pdf

This paper estimates a disequilibrium model of credit supply and demand to evaluate the relative role of these factors in the slowdown of credit flows in the Jordanian economy in the wake of the global financial crisis. The empirical analysis suggests that the credit stagnation is mainly driven by the restricted credit supply amid tighter monetary policy conditions in Jordan relative to the United States, as evidenced by the widened interest differential between the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) re-discount and the U.S. Federal Reserve funds rates. Although it appears that demand side factors related to the slowdown of economic activity have also had an impact, their role has been relatively modest. The estimation results imply that economic policies targeted towards stimulating supply of credit are likely to be a more effective tool for expanding credit flows relative to demand stimulating policies.

Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations

Yong Sarah Zhou
Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations Book PDF

Author : Yong Sarah Zhou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034559161

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Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations by Yong Sarah Zhou Pdf

This paper uses a general equilibrium model to examine the central role played by commercial banks in intermediating and amplifying the capital flow shocks to the local economy in the 1997 Asia financial crisis. It finds that a sudden stop of capital inflows affects the equilibrium credit supply through two channels: first, the plunge of foreign financing decreases the loanable funds directly; and second the sudden stop drives up the cost of providing banking services, thereby additionally reducing the available bank credit to firms through a "deposit run". Empirical results from a VAR model broadly support the theoretical implications.

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability Book PDF

Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2019-09-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513513775

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The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie Pdf

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae
Global Debt Database Methodology and Sources Book PDF

Author : Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484353592

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Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources by Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae Pdf

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.

In the Wake of the Crisis

Olivier Blanchard,David Romer,Michael Spence,Joseph E. Stiglitz
In the Wake of the Crisis Book PDF

Author : Olivier Blanchard,David Romer,Michael Spence,Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 251 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2012-02-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262301084

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In the Wake of the Crisis by Olivier Blanchard,David Romer,Michael Spence,Joseph E. Stiglitz Pdf

Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world. In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment. The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics and economic policy. These top economists discuss future directions for monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, capital-account management, growth strategies, the international monetary system, and the economic models that should underpin thinking about critical policy choices. Contributors Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Charles Collyns, Arminio Fraga, Már Guðmundsson, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Otmar Issing, Olivier Jeanne, Rakesh Mohan, Maurice Obstfeld, José Antonio Ocampo, Guillermo Ortiz, Y. V. Reddy, Dani Rodrik, David Romer, Paul Romer, Andrew Sheng, Hyun Song Shin, Parthasarathi Shome, Robert Solow, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, Adair Turner

Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

Francesco Manaresi,Mr.Nicola Pierri
Credit Supply and Productivity Growth Book PDF

Author : Francesco Manaresi,Mr.Nicola Pierri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2019-05-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498315913

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Credit Supply and Productivity Growth by Francesco Manaresi,Mr.Nicola Pierri Pdf

We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Global Financial Stability Report April 2018 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2018-04-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484338292

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.

An Anatomy of Credit Booms

Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza
An Anatomy of Credit Booms Book PDF

Author : Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2008-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451870848

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An Anatomy of Credit Booms by Mr.Marco Terrones,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza Pdf

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications Book PDF

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2013-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475561005

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Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by Mr.Stijn Claessens,Mr.Ayhan Kose Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets

Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano,Mr.Fei Han
Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets Book PDF

Author : Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano,Mr.Fei Han
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2015-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513581927

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Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets by Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano,Mr.Fei Han Pdf

This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319790756

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International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by Laurent Ferrara,Ignacio Hernando,Daniela Marconi Pdf

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Credit, Securitization and Monetary Policy

Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Juan Sole
Credit Securitization and Monetary Policy Book PDF

Author : Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Juan Sole
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2016-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475522723

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Credit, Securitization and Monetary Policy by Mr.Andrea Pescatori,Mr.Juan Sole Pdf

We show evidence that interest rate hikes slowdown loan growth but lead intermediation to migrate from banks’ balance sheets to non-banks via increased securitization activity. As such, higher interest rates have the potential for unintended consequences; raising systemic risk rather than lowering it by pushing more intermediation activity to more weakly regulated sectors. In the past, this increased securitization activity was driven primarily byb private-label securitization. On the other hand, the government sponsored entities like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae appear to react to higher policy rates by cutting back on their securitization activity but expanding loans to the Federal Home Loan Bank system.