The Macroeconomics Of Medium Term Aid Scaling Up Scenarios

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The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios

Jan Gottschalk,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Mr.Andrew Berg
The Macroeconomics of Medium Term Aid Scaling Up Scenarios Book PDF

Author : Jan Gottschalk,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2010-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455201433

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The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios by Jan Gottschalk,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Mr.Andrew Berg Pdf

We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.

Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa

Yongzheng Yang,Mr.Robert Powell,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa Book PDF

Author : Yongzheng Yang,Mr.Robert Powell,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589065050

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Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa by Yongzheng Yang,Mr.Robert Powell,Mr.Sanjeev Gupta Pdf

Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.

The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa

Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell
The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa Book PDF

Author : Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 70 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2005-09-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1451861982

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The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa by Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell Pdf

This paper surveys the economic literature on the scaling-up of aid to Africa. It provides a checklist of issues that need to be considered when preparing a long term macroeconomic projection for a country involving the assumption of a significant increase in aid. Such scaling-up scenarios are most likely to be developed in the context of a country's efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the support of the international donor community. The paper stresses that when preparing a scaling-up scenario it is critical to have a detailed understanding of the likely use of additional aid flows.

The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa

Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell
The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa Book PDF

Author : Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451949674

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The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa by Yongzheng Yang,Sanjeev Gupta,Robert Powell Pdf

Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. the handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.

Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility

Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility Book PDF

Author : Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2014-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484397008

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Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility by Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna Pdf

We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption — an increase in the current account deficit net of aid—delivering the same effects as those of a flexible regime but with a necessary increase in inflation. Regardless of the regime, policies that limit absorption—and result in large accumulation of reserves—are welfare reducing: they help reduce the real appreciation (and inflation under the peg), but at the expense of reducing private consumption and investment, and therefore medium-term growth.

Enhancing Development Assistance to Africa

Matthew Gaertner,Ms.Laure Redifer,Pedro Conceição,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Andrew Berg,Ayodele F. Odusola,Mr.Brett E. House,Mr.José Saúl Lizondo
Enhancing Development Assistance to Africa Book PDF

Author : Matthew Gaertner,Ms.Laure Redifer,Pedro Conceição,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Andrew Berg,Ayodele F. Odusola,Mr.Brett E. House,Mr.José Saúl Lizondo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2012-03-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463989613

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Enhancing Development Assistance to Africa by Matthew Gaertner,Ms.Laure Redifer,Pedro Conceição,Rafael Portillo,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Andrew Berg,Ayodele F. Odusola,Mr.Brett E. House,Mr.José Saúl Lizondo Pdf

The pace of progress toward achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDG) in many sub-Saharan African countries remains too slow to reach targets by 2015, despite significant progress in the late 1990s. The MDG Africa Steering Group, convened in September 2007 by the UN Secretary-General, designated 10 countries for pilot studies to investigate how existing national development plans would be impacted by scaled up development aid to Africa. This joint publication of the IMF and the United Nations Development Programme reports conclusions drawn from these pilot studies and summarizes country-specific results for Benin, the Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo, Sierra Leone, and Zambia.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries--Analytic Frameworks and Applications

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,World Bank
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries Analytic Frameworks and Applications Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2012-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340007

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Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries--Analytic Frameworks and Applications by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,World Bank Pdf

This supplement presents the analytical frameworks underlying the IMF’s staff’s enhanced policy analysis and advice to resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The proposed macro-fiscal models, which are applied to selected country or regional cases, are aimed at addressing questions regarding how to deal with resource revenue uncertainty and how to scale up spending within relevant frameworks that ensure fiscal and external sustainability while addressing absorptive capacity constraints. The country applications confirm the importance attached by both IMF staff and country authorities of using the appropriate macro-fiscal frameworks to address the specific challenges faced by RRDCs.

Walking a Fine Line

Ms.Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi,Mame Astou Diouf,Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
Walking a Fine Line Book PDF

Author : Ms.Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi,Mame Astou Diouf,Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2016-04-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484324943

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Walking a Fine Line by Ms.Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi,Mame Astou Diouf,Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana Pdf

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of scaling up public investment in Burkina Faso under alternative financing options, including through foreign aid and a combination of tax adjustment and borrowing. Our findings are twofold: (1) raising official development assistance in line with the Gleneagles agreement provides scope for financing public investment at low cost and would have positive, but somewhat moderate, effects on aggregate output—the growth dividends in the nontradables sector would be partially offset by the Dutch disease in the tradables sector; and (2) the massive investment scaling-up contemplated under Burkina Faso’s “accelerated growth” strategy, while boosting medium- and long-term growth, would lead to unsustainable debt dynamics under a plausible tax adjustment and realistic concessional financing. A more gradual approach to closing Burkina Faso’s infrastructure gap is therefore desirable because it would take into account the needed time for the country to address its capacity constraints and to further improve investment efficiency.

Mongolia

International Monetary Fund
Mongolia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2011-03-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455230136

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Mongolia by International Monetary Fund Pdf

The economy of Mongolia was extremely affected during the crisis, owing to its dependency on mineral exports and history of procyclical macroeconomic policies. In this study, the ex post evaluation (EPE) of Mongolia’s experience is reviewed. The EPE focused on program design and implementation. Progress toward strengthening financial oversight and implementation of a financial sector assessment program are discussed. Deposit insurance was established to replace the blanket deposit guarantee. Structural reforms have improved. Finally, the authorities' intention to remain engaged with the IMF under post-program monitoring is outlined.

Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan,Shu-Chun Susan Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid Book PDF

Author : Ioana Moldovan,Shu-Chun Susan Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2019-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498320184

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Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid by Ioana Moldovan,Shu-Chun Susan Yang,Luis-Felipe Zanna Pdf

This paper assesses the optimal setting of fiscal spending and foreign exchange rate intervention policies in response to volatile foreign aid, in a small open economy model that incorporates typical features of low-income countries. Within a class of policy rules, it jointly considers the optimal aid spending and international reserve accumulation policies. The results show that it is optimal to adjust government spending gradually in response to unpredictable fluctuations in aid, while partially accumulating foreign exchange reserves to offset Dutch disease effects. Also, allocating relatively more of the government spending to productive public investment, and less to government consumption, is welfare improving.

External Performance in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Alessandro Prati,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Lone Engbo Christiansen,Mr.Stephen Tokarick,Mr.Thierry Tressel
External Performance in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alessandro Prati,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Lone Engbo Christiansen,Mr.Stephen Tokarick,Mr.Thierry Tressel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2011-03-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616350536

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External Performance in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Alessandro Prati,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Lone Engbo Christiansen,Mr.Stephen Tokarick,Mr.Thierry Tressel Pdf

Assessments of exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances for low-income countries are challenging because methodologies developed for advanced and emerging economies cannot be automatically applied to poorer nations. This paper uses a large database, unique in the set of indicators and number of countries it covers, to estimate the relationship in low-income countries between a set of fundamentals in the medium to long term and the real effective exchange rate, the current account, and the net external assets position.

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,World Bank
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2012-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498339995

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Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,World Bank Pdf

This paper aims to widen the prism through which Fund policy analysis is conducted for resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). While all resource-rich economies face resource revenue exhaustibility and volatility, RRDCs face additional challenges, including lack of access to international capital markets and domestic capital scarcity. Resource exhaustibility gives rise to inter-temporal decisions of how much of the resource wealth to consume and how much to save, and revenue volatility calls for appropriate fiscal rules and precautionary savings. Under certain conditions, it would be optimal for a significant share of a RRDC’s savings to be in domestic real assets (e.g., investment in domestic infrastructure), though absorptive capacity constraints need to be tackled to promote efficient spending and short-run policies are needed to preserve macroeconomic stability. The objective of this paper is to develop new macro-fiscal frameworks and policy analysis tools for RRDCs that could enhance Fund policy advice.

The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Context and concepts

Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin
The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics Context and concepts Book PDF

Author : Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 865 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199687114

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The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Context and concepts by Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin Pdf

For a long time, economic research on Africa was not seen as a profitable venture intellectually or professionally-few researchers in top-ranked institutions around the world chose to become experts in the field. This was understandable: the reputation of Africa-centered economic research was not enhanced by the well-known limitations of economic data across the continent. Moreover, development economics itself was not always fashionable, and the broader discipline of economics has had its ups and downs, and has been undergoing a major identity crisis because it failed to predict the Great Recession. Times have changed: many leading researchers-including a few Nobel laureates-have taken the subject of Africa and economics seriously enough to devote their expertise and creativity to it. They have been amply rewarded: the richness, complexities, and subtleties of African societies, civilizations, rationalities, and ways of living, have helped renew the humanities and the social sciences-and economics in particular-to the point that the continent has become the next major intellectual frontier to researchers from around the world. In collecting some of the most authoritative statements about the science of economics and its concepts in the African context, this handbook (the first of two volumes) opens up the diverse acuity of commentary on exciting topics, and in the process challenges and stimulates the quest for knowledge. Wide-ranging in its scope, themes, language, and approaches, this volume explores, examines, and assesses economic thinking on Africa, and Africa's contribution to the discipline. The editors bring a set of powerful resources to this endeavor, most notably a team of internationally-renowned economists whose diverse viewpoints are complemented by the perspectives of philosophers, political scientists, and anthropologists. The set of analyses and reflections presented here try to endow each subject with depth and discovery.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction

Mr.Suman S Basu,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Werner Schule,Mr.Nikhil Vellodi,Ms.Susan S. Yang
The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction Book PDF

Author : Mr.Suman S Basu,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Werner Schule,Mr.Nikhil Vellodi,Ms.Susan S. Yang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2013-05-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484321379

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction by Mr.Suman S Basu,Jan Gottschalk,Mr.Werner Schule,Mr.Nikhil Vellodi,Ms.Susan S. Yang Pdf

To investigate the effects on Papua New Guinea’s economy of substantial liquified natural gas revenues arriving in 2015, we employ a model to examine the macroeconomic effects of a scalingup of natural resource windfall revenues and the implications for a variety of policy responses. The model is a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and features components that allow for a detailed study of the effects of both fiscal and monetary policy in response to a positive shock to the mineral resource value of a country. The model contains tradable, non-tradable, and mining sectors, as well as an independent central bank and fiscal authority. We calibrate the model to the current economy of Papua New Guinea and run a suite of policy simulations. We find that macroeconomic effects from a resource boom typically associated with Dutch Disease effects such as a real appreciation and a fall in tradable sector production stem largely from the non-tradable component of government spending. The central bank can offset the real appreciation, but not without crowding out the private sector. A sovereign wealth fund (SWF), combined with a smooth capital spending path, entails the best means of dealing with macroeconomic volatility and maintaining a stable fiscal regime.

The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics

Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin
The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics Book PDF

Author : Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 704 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2015-07-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780191510731

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The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics by Célestin Monga,Justin Yifu Lin Pdf

A popular myth about the travails of Africa holds that the continent's long history of poor economic performance reflects the inability of its leaders and policymakers to fulfill the long list of preconditions to be met before sustained growth can be achieved. These conditions are said to vary from the necessary quantity and quality of physical and human capital to the appropriate institutions and business environments. While intellectually charming and often elegantly formulated, that conventional wisdom is actually contradicted by historical evidence and common sense. It also suggests a form of intellectual mimicry that posits a unique path to prosperity for all countries regardless of their level of development and economic structure. In fact, the argument underlining that reasoning is tautological, and the policy prescriptions derived from it are fatally teleological: low-income countries are by definition those where such ingredients are missing. None of today's high-income countries started its growth process with the "required" and complete list of growth ingredients. Unless one truly believes that the continent of Africa-and most developing countries-are ruled predominantly if not exclusively by plutocrats with a high propensity for sadomasochism, the conventional view must be re-examined, debated, and questioned. This volume-the second of the lOxford Handbook of Africa and Economics-reassesses the economic policies and practices observed across the continent since independence. It offers a collection of analyses by some of the leading economists and development thinkers of our time, and reflects a wide range of perspectives and viewpoints. Africa's emergence as a potential economic powerhouse in the years and decades ahead amply justifies the scope and ambition of the book.