The Short Run Economic Costs Of Covid 19 In Developing Countries In 2020 A Synthesis Of Results From A Multi Country Modeling Exercise

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The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise

Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
The short run economic costs of COVID 19 in developing countries in 2020 A synthesis of results from a multi country modeling exercise Book PDF

Author : Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise by Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James Pdf

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

COVID-19 impacts on smallholder farmers in Northern Shan State in Myanmar

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
COVID 19 impacts on smallholder farmers in Northern Shan State in Myanmar Book PDF

Author : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher : Food & Agriculture Org.
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2021-12-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789251348826

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COVID-19 impacts on smallholder farmers in Northern Shan State in Myanmar by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf

Report on how the first wave of COVID-19 impacted on smallholder farmers in northern Shan State in Myanmar. The study examines the interactions of reduced border trade, remittances and contracted labour markets on household food security, nutrition and land tenure. In turn, tenure insecurity in rural areas may deepen the effects of COVID-19, as most rural people struggle to sustain their livelihoods through access to land and other natural resources. This is relevant as many ethnic groups in northern Shan State continue to manage their land through customary tenure systems that are not fully recognized by state authorities.

COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later

McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan
COVID 19 and global food security Two years later Book PDF

Author : McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780896294226

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COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later by McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan Pdf

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar

Ecker, Olivier,Alderman, Harold,Comstock, Andrew R.,Headey, Derek D.,Mahrt, Kristi,Pradesha, Angga
Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection A simulation analysis of the COVID 19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar Book PDF

Author : Ecker, Olivier,Alderman, Harold,Comstock, Andrew R.,Headey, Derek D.,Mahrt, Kristi,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2023-02-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection: A simulation analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar by Ecker, Olivier,Alderman, Harold,Comstock, Andrew R.,Headey, Derek D.,Mahrt, Kristi,Pradesha, Angga Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting ‘hidden hunger’ during economic crises.

Resilience in the Malawi agri-food system amid the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from a 2021 nationally representative household survey

Ragasa, Catherine,Balakasi, Kelvin,Carrillo, Lucia
Resilience in the Malawi agri food system amid the COVID 19 crisis Evidence from a 2021 nationally representative household survey Book PDF

Author : Ragasa, Catherine,Balakasi, Kelvin,Carrillo, Lucia
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2022-03-30
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Resilience in the Malawi agri-food system amid the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from a 2021 nationally representative household survey by Ragasa, Catherine,Balakasi, Kelvin,Carrillo, Lucia Pdf

This report provides a farm-level analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, 12–15 months in, using a nationally representative rural household survey conducted in June–July 2021. We draw three major observations from the survey. First, farming activities, access to inputs and extension services, production, and sales were largely unaffected by the crisis. There were temporary challenges in accessing inputs during lockdown and mobility restrictions, and input prices and transportation costs increased; however, production and sales volume and value were largely unaffected. Second, although farming was not affected, other nonfarm livelihoods of a large proportion of farmers were negatively affected because of lower demand and fewer buyers. Eighty-two percent of rural households were engaged in various nonfarm livelihoods, and 32 percent reported negative impacts of the crisis on their nonfarm incomes. Third, direct responses from sample households indicate no negative impacts of the crisis on food access and food consumption by most rural households. Comparisons between 2018 and 2021 of various food security indicators show improvements in food access and dietary diversity. Improvements are likely attributable to better harvests overall and greater awareness of the need to eat healthy and nutritious foods to combat COVID-19 and other diseases. Results show overall resilience of rural households and the agriculture sector amid the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, the survey was conducted right after harvest, and the situation needs to be monitored during the lean season.

Double Jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'etat and poverty in Myanmar

Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Double Jeopardy COVID 19 coup d etat and poverty in Myanmar Book PDF

Author : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2022-06-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Double Jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'etat and poverty in Myanmar by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Pdf

Myanmar experienced four distinct COVID shocks to its economy over 2020 to early 2022 as well as a military takeover in February 2021 that created severe political, civil and economic turmoil. COVID and the coup d’état reversed a decade of growth and poverty reduction, but the full extent of the crisis on household poverty has remained uncertain because of the challenges of conducting large-scale in-person welfare surveys during the pandemic and recent political instability. Here we combine ex ante simulation models with diverse phone survey evidence from mid-2020 to early 2022 to estimate the poverty impacts of these shocks and some of the mechanisms behind them. Both simulations and surveys are consistent in painting a grim picture of rising poverty, capital-depleting coping mechanisms, and the complete collapse of government-provided social protection.

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Diao, Xinshen,Ellis, Mia,Mugabo, Serge,Pauw, Karl,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James
Rwanda s agrifood system Structure and drivers of transformation Book PDF

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Ellis, Mia,Mugabo, Serge,Pauw, Karl,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2023-01-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation by Diao, Xinshen,Ellis, Mia,Mugabo, Serge,Pauw, Karl,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James Pdf

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
The short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy 2020 2021 A SAM multiplier modeling analysis Book PDF

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2020-12-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Building more resilient food systems: Lessons and policy recommendations from the COVID-19 pandemic

McDermott, John,Allison-Reumann, Laura
Building more resilient food systems Lessons and policy recommendations from the COVID 19 pandemic Book PDF

Author : McDermott, John,Allison-Reumann, Laura
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 13 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2022-02-24
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Building more resilient food systems: Lessons and policy recommendations from the COVID-19 pandemic by McDermott, John,Allison-Reumann, Laura Pdf

Two years in, the long-term health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to influence poverty, food systems, and food security. Drawing on CGIAR research on the COVID-19 pandemic thus far, this brief presents key lessons learned and policy recommendations to inform decision-making processes around managing risks, addressing structural vulnerabilities, and building resilient and sustainable food systems.

Kenya's agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Diao, Xinshen,Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
Kenya s agrifood system Structure and drivers of transformation Book PDF

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2023-03-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Kenya's agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation by Diao, Xinshen,Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James Pdf

This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased income generating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana

Amewu, Sena,Asante, Seth,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
The economic costs of COVID 19 in Sub Saharan Africa Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana Book PDF

Author : Amewu, Sena,Asante, Seth,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-12
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana by Amewu, Sena,Asante, Seth,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James Pdf

The objective in this paper is to estimate the economic costs of COVID-19 policies and external shocks in a developing country context, with a focus on agri-food system impacts. Ghana is selected as a case study. Ghana recorded its first two cases of COVID-19 infection on 12 March 2020. The government responded by gradually introducing social distancing measures, travel restrictions, border closures, and eventually a partial, two-week “partial” lockdown in the country’s largest metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi. Social distancing measures have been enforced nationwide and include bans on conferences, workshops, and sporting and religious events, as well as the closure of bars and nightclubs. All educational institutions are also closed. The partial lockdown measures in urban areas directed all residents to remain home except for essential business, prohibited non-essential inter-city travel and transport, and only essential manufacturing and services operations were permitted to continue (The Presidency 2020). At the time the lockdown was announced, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth estimate for 2020 downwards from 6.8 to 1.5 percent (MoF 2020), although the Minister warned that growth could fall further if lockdown measures were extended. The lockdown was initially extended for a third week but was officially lifted on 20 April. Social distancing measures remain in place nationwide, although a gradual easing of restrictions commenced in June. Ghana’s borders remain closed at the time of writing.

The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
The short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy 2020 2021 A SAM multiplier modeling analysis Book PDF

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2020-11-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria

Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Estimating the economic costs of COVID 19 in Nigeria Book PDF

Author : Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2020-07-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria by Andam, Kwaw S.,Edeh, Hyacinth,Oboh, Victor,Pauw, Karl,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery

Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James
Assessing the short term impacts of COVID 19 on Ethiopia s economy External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery Book PDF

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

COVID-19 and International Development

Elissaios Papyrakis
COVID 19 and International Development Book PDF

Author : Elissaios Papyrakis
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2022-01-13
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030823399

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COVID-19 and International Development by Elissaios Papyrakis Pdf

The current coronavirus pandemic fundamentally reshapes existing debates and processes in international development. The unprecedented (and rapidly evolving) crisis is generating a number of substantial challenges for developing economies. Governments in low-income nations often find it extremely hard to cope with the increased demand for health services, make prompt decisions and put them into action, protect vulnerable segments of society and offer immediate relief to affected economic sectors. This book provides a series of reflective chapters that demonstrate how several areas of international development have been severely affected by the Covid-19 outbreak. It provides an in-depth critical discussion on how the current pandemic influences several development outcomes (in the domains of poverty/inequality, health, education, migration, formal/informal employment, (de)globalisation, the extractive sector, climate change, water and the global financial system). Each chapter draws policy recommendations on relevant interventions that can alleviate the identified negative repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, especially for the most vulnerable communities in the Global South.