The Short Term Impacts Of Covid 19 On The Malawian Economy 2020 2021 A Sam Multiplier Modeling Analysis

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2020-11-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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An update on the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021 by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 8 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2021-06-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James Pdf

Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.

Author : Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise by Pauw, Karl,Smart, Jenny,Thurlow, James Pdf

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 10 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.

Author : Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780896297838

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Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis by Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow Pdf

This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis

Author : McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2022-03-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780896294226

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COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later by McDermott, John,Swinnen, Johan Pdf

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

Author : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ,International Fund for Agricultural Development,World Food Programme,World Health Organization,The United Nations Children's Fund
Publisher : Food & Agriculture Org.
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2020-07-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789251329016

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The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020 by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ,International Fund for Agricultural Development,World Food Programme,World Health Organization,The United Nations Children's Fund Pdf

Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

Author : Xinshen Diao,Paul Dorosh,Peixun Fang,Emily Schmidt
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2021
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1355966535

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Effects of COVID-19 and Other Shocks on Papua New Guinea's Food Economy by Xinshen Diao,Paul Dorosh,Peixun Fang,Emily Schmidt Pdf

Author : Avula, Rasmi, ed.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 14 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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POSHAN’s abstract digest on maternal and child nutrition research - Issue 34 by Avula, Rasmi, ed. Pdf

This issue of Abstract Digest comes to you at a time when the global nutrition research community is actively looking for ways to address malnutrition in the changing context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The articles in this issue include a modelling study by Roberton and colleagues on early estimates of the indirect effects of COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, and comments on it.

Author : UNESCO
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789231004568

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Reporting on migrants and refugees by UNESCO Pdf

Author : Bouet, Antoine,Pace, Kathryn,Glauber, Joseph W.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2018-12-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Informal cross-border trade in Africa: How much? Why? And what impact? by Bouet, Antoine,Pace, Kathryn,Glauber, Joseph W. Pdf

Informal cross-border trade (ICBT) represents a prominent phenomenon in Africa. Several studies suggest that for certain products and countries, the value of informal trade may meet or even exceed the value of formal trade. This paper provides a review of existing efforts to measure informal trade. We list 18 initiatives aimed at measuring ICBT in Africa. The paper also summarizes discussions conducted with many stakeholders in Africa between December 2016 and May 2018 regarding the measurement, the determinants, and the implications of ICBT. The methodologies used to measure ICBT in Africa differ widely, but they do confirm that informal trade in Africa is both sizeable and volatile. Both evidence on the determinants of ICBT and discussions with stakeholders suggest that policies should aim to reduce the existing costs associated with formal trade and provide positive incentives for traders and producers to move into the formal economy in order to avoid the loss of economic potential stemming from informal trade.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 301 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781464816475

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The Human Capital Index 2020 Update by World Bank Pdf

Human capital—the knowledge, skills, and health that people accumulate over their lives—is a central driver of sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and successful societies. More human capital is associated with higher earnings for people, higher income for countries, and stronger cohesion in societies. Much of the hard-won human capital gains in many economies over the past decade is at risk of being eroded by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. Urgent action is needed to protect these advances, particularly among the poor and vulnerable. Designing the needed interventions, targeting them to achieve the highest effectiveness, and navigating difficult trade-offs make investing in better measurement of human capital now more important than ever. The Human Capital Index (HCI)—launched in 2018 as part of the Human Capital Project—is an international metric that benchmarks the key components of human capital across economies. The HCI is a global effort to accelerate progress toward a world where all children can achieve their full potential. Measuring the human capital that children born today can expect to attain by their 18th birthdays, the HCI highlights how current health and education outcomes shape the productivity of the next generation of workers and underscores the importance of government and societal investments in human capital. The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19 presents the first update of the HCI, using health and education data available as of March 2020. It documents new evidence on trends, examples of successes, and analytical work on the utilization of human capital. The new data—collected before the global onset of COVID-19—can act as a baseline to track its effects on health and education outcomes. The report highlights how better measurement is essential for policy makers to design effective interventions and target support. In the immediate term, investments in better measurement and data use will guide pandemic containment strategies and support for those who are most affected. In the medium term, better curation and use of administrative, survey, and identification data can guide policy choices in an environment of limited fiscal space and competing priorities. In the longer term, the hope is that economies will be able to do more than simply recover lost ground. Ambitious, evidence-driven policy measures in health, education, and social protection can pave the way for today’s children to surpass the human capital achievements and quality of life of the generations that preceded them.

Author : Perez, Nicostrato,Pradesha, Angga
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 12 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2024-06-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Philippine rice trade liberalization: Impacts on agriculture and the economy, and alternative policy actions by Perez, Nicostrato,Pradesha, Angga Pdf

Quantitative restriction (QR) on rice import has been a longstanding instrument of the Philippine government that regulated the importation of rice, protected rice farmers and supported the drive for rice self-sufficiency of the country. However, with the pas-sage of the Republic Act No. 11203 or the Philippine rice trade liberalization law in February 2019, the QR was lifted and replaced with import tariffs instead. This policy shift can have far-reaching impacts not only to rice and agriculture but to the entire economy and to the global rice market as well - with important implications to the general welfare, nutrition and food security of the country. Hence, an ex-ante impact assessment study aimed at simulating, quantifying and understanding the effects of rice liberalization on farmers, consumers and various stakeholders can assist the government in proactively crafting and putting in place appropriate investment and policy interventions, while transitioning from QR and moving toward longer-term rice and food security.