Threatcasting

Author : Brian David Johnson,Cyndi Coon,Natalie Vanatta
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 285 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2022-06-01
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783031025754

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Threatcasting by Brian David Johnson,Cyndi Coon,Natalie Vanatta Pdf

Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future. Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.

Author : Natalie M. Scala,James P. Howard, II
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 481 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2020-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429883965

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Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research by Natalie M. Scala,James P. Howard, II Pdf

Operations research (OR) is a core discipline in military and defense management. Coming to the forefront initially during World War II, OR provided critical contributions to logistics, supply chains, and strategic simulation, while enabling superior decision-making for Allied forces. OR has grown to include analytics and many applications, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and big data, and is the cornerstone of management science in manufacturing, marketing, telecommunications, and many other fields. The Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research presents the voices leading OR and analytics to new heights in security through research, practical applications, case studies, and lessons learned in the field. Features Applies the experiences of educators and practitioners working in the field Employs the latest technology developments in case studies and applications Identifies best practices unique to the military, security, and national defense problem space Highlights similarities and dichotomies between analyses and trends that are unique to military, security, and defense problems.

Author : Brian David Johnson,Natalie Vanatta,Cyndi Coon
Publisher : Synthesis Lectures on Threatca
Page : 311 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2021-10-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1636392008

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Threatcasting by Brian David Johnson,Natalie Vanatta,Cyndi Coon Pdf

Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader's understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of "the next biological public health crisis." The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner's handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area. Impending technological advances will widen an adversary's attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future.

Author : Artur Gruszczak,Sebastian Kaempf
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 617 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2023-09-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781000930948

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Routledge Handbook of the Future of Warfare by Artur Gruszczak,Sebastian Kaempf Pdf

This handbook provides a comprehensive, problem-driven and dynamic overview of the future of warfare. The volatilities and uncertainties of the global security environment raise timely and important questions about the future of humanity’s oldest occupation: war. This volume addresses these questions through a collection of cutting-edge contributions by leading scholars in the field. Its overall focus is prognostic rather than futuristic, highlighting discernible trends, key developments and themes without downplaying the lessons from the past. By making the past meet the present in order to envision the future, the handbook offers a diversified outlook on the future of warfare, which will be indispensable for researchers, students and military practitioners alike. The volume is divided into six thematic sections. Section I draws out general trends in the phenomenon of war and sketches the most significant developments, from the past to the present and into the future. Section II looks at the areas and domains which actively shape the future of warfare. Section III engages with the main theories and conceptions of warfare, capturing those attributes of contemporary conflicts which will most likely persist and determine the dynamics and directions of their transformations. The fourth section addresses differentiation and complexity in the domain of warfare, pointing to those factors which will exert a strong impact on the structure and properties of that domain. Section V focuses on technology as the principal trigger of changes and alterations in the essence of warfare. The final section draws on the general trends identified in Section I and sheds light on how those trends have manifested in specific local contexts. This section zooms in on particular geographies which are seen and anticipated as hotbeds where future warfare will most likely assume its shape and reveal its true colours. This book will be of great interest to students of strategic studies, defence studies, war and technology, and International Relations.

Author : Brian David Johnson
Publisher : HarperOne
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2022-01-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0062965077

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The Future You by Brian David Johnson Pdf

"The first book of its kind, written by an acclaimed futurist, to help us not only envision what is possible in the next few months, years, decades, but to enact those plans and create the future we want Whether we want to or not, all of us think about the future constantly. These thoughts produce fear and anxiety that interfere with how we make decisions every day. We spend our days living in the past and the present with no understanding of how to get to that future we want so badly. That is, until now. Acclaimed futurist, Brian David Johnson has spent the last quarter century helping governments, Fortune 500 corporations, and other organizations chart successful paths forward by showing them what the world will look like 10 to 15 years down the line. With Future Casting, Johnson brings that prognosticator's eye to the individual, helping readers from all walks of life discover their best selves by seeing the future, and their place within it, in a whole new light. Johnson's method is highly scientific and practical. He shares a series of pragmatic steps that anyone can take to understand today and envision their tomorrow. The book will empower readers with the realization that, not only do they have control over their own future, they are the ones most responsible for its creation"--

Author : Melissa Smallwood
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 112 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2023-09-26
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9783031404740

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The Future of Long COVID by Melissa Smallwood Pdf

This book provides an overview of Long COVID, the chronic illness and disability that can result from COVID-19 infection in 20–30% of survivors. It approaches the topic through its larger social, political, and historical context utilizing the Threatcasting methodology for scenario-based foresight. The book brings together multiple perspectives on Long COVID, such as patient experiences, healthcare system impacts, historical frameworks, and the information ecosystem surrounding COVID to explore the long-term structural implications of Long COVID beyond the current acute crisis. It is intended to be a guide for policy makers, healthcare providers, researchers, and anyone whose work will play a role in mitigating the long tail of COVID-19. Framing the pandemic within a historical and political framework while approaching Long COVID from the future-casting perspective, this book seeks to disentangle the issues posed by Long COVID from the current moment and is intended to establish new ways of thinking about and preparing for similar complex, over-the-horizon potential threats. The first book to apply the Threatcasting framework to a public-health issue like COVID-19 Draws together multiple perspectives of Long COVID that were previously discussed independently within their fields Comprehensively examines the history and future of Long COVID

Author : Anders Engberg-Pedersen
Publisher : Stanford University Press
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2023-03-07
Category : Art
ISBN : 9781503634862

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Martial Aesthetics by Anders Engberg-Pedersen Pdf

The twenty-first century has witnessed a pervasive militarization of aesthetics with Western military institutions co-opting the creative worldmaking of art and merging it with the destructive forces of warfare. In Martial Aesthetics, Anders Engberg-Pedersen examines the origins of this unlikely merger, showing that today's creative warfare is merely the extension of a historical development that began long ago. Indeed, the emergence of martial aesthetics harkens back to a series of inventions, ideas, and debates in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century. Already then, military thinkers and inventors adopted ideas from the field of aesthetics about the nature, purpose, and force of art and retooled them into innovative military technologies and a new theory that conceptualized war not merely as a practical art, but as an aesthetic art form. This book shows how military discourses and early war media such as star charts, horoscopes, and the Prussian wargame were entangled with ideas of creativity, genius, and possible worlds in philosophy and aesthetic theory (by thinkers such as Leibniz, Baumgarten, Kant, and Schiller) in order to trace the emergence of martial aesthetics. Adopting an approach that is simultaneously historical and theoretical, Engberg-Pedersen presents a new frame for understanding war in the twenty-first century.

Author : Dean S. Hartley III,Kenneth O. Jobson
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2020-11-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783030601843

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Cognitive Superiority by Dean S. Hartley III,Kenneth O. Jobson Pdf

In a world of accelerating unending change, perpetual surveillance, and increasing connectivity, conflict has become ever more complex. Wars are no longer limited to the traditional military conflict domains—land, sea, air; even space and cyber space. The new battlefield will be the cognitive domain and the new conflict a larger contest for power; a contest for cognitive superiority. Written by experts in military operations research and neuropsychology, this book introduces the concept of cognitive superiority and provides the keys to succeeding within a complex matrix where the only rules are the laws of physics, access to information, and the boundaries of cognition. The book describes the adversarial environment and how it interacts with the ongoing, accelerating change that we are experiencing, irrespective of adversaries. It talks about the ascendant power of information access, pervasive surveillance, personalized persuasion, and emerging new forms of cognition. It profiles salient technologies and science, including persuasion science, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), surveillance technologies, complex adaptive systems, network science, directed human modification, and biosecurity. Readers will learn about human and machine cognition, what makes it tick, and why and how we and our technologies are vulnerable. Following in the tradition of Sun-Tsu and von Clausewitz, this book writes a new chapter in the study of warfare and strategy. It is written for those who lead, aspire to leadership, and those who teach or persuade, especially in the fields of political science, military science, computer science, and business.

Author : Tiago Cruz ,Paulo Simoes
Publisher : Academic Conferences and publishing limited
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2019-07-04
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781912764297

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ECCWS 2019 18th European Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security by Tiago Cruz ,Paulo Simoes Pdf

Author : Johnson Brian David
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 223 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2022-05-31
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783031017964

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Science Fiction Prototyping by Johnson Brian David Pdf

Science fiction is the playground of the imagination. If you are interested in science or fascinated with the future then science fiction is where you explore new ideas and let your dreams and nightmares duke it out on the safety of the page or screen. But what if we could use science fiction to do more than that? What if we could use science fiction based on science fact to not only imagine our future but develop new technologies and products? What if we could use stories, movies and comics as a kind of tool to explore the real world implications and uses of future technologies today? Science Fiction Prototyping is a practical guide to using fiction as a way to imagine our future in a whole new way. Filled with history, real world examples and conversations with experts like best selling science fiction author Cory Doctorow, senior editor at Dark Horse Comics Chris Warner and Hollywood science expert Sidney Perkowitz, Science Fiction Prototyping will give you the tools you need to begin designing the future with science fiction. The future is Brian David Johnson’s business. As a futurist at Intel Corporation, his charter is to develop an actionable vision for computing in 2021. His work is called “future casting”—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing. Johnson has been pioneering development in artificial intelligence, robotics, and reinventing TV. He speaks and writes extensively about future technologies in articles and scientific papers as well as science fiction short stories and novels (Fake Plastic Love and Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computing and the Devices We Love). He has directed two feature films and is an illustrator and commissioned painter. Table of Contents: Preface / Foreword / Epilogue / Dedication / Acknowledgments / 1. The Future Is in Your Hands / 2. Religious Robots and Runaway Were-Tigers: A Brief Overview of the Science and the Fiction that Went Into Two SF Prototypes / 3. How to Build Your Own SF Prototype in Five Steps or Less / 4. I, Robot: From Asimov to Doctorow: Exploring Short Fiction as an SF Prototype and a Conversation With Cory Doctorow / 5. The Men in the Moon: Exploring Movies as an SF Prototype and a Conversation with Sidney Perkowitz / 6. Science in the Gutters: Exploring Comics as an SF Prototype and a Conversation With Chris Warner / 7. Making the Future: Now that You Have Developed Your SF Prototype, What’s Next? / 8. Einstein’s Thought Experiments and Asimov’s Second Dream / Appendix A: The SF Prototypes / Notes / Author Biography

Author : will.i.am,Brian David Johnson
Publisher : Penguin UK
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2018-01-25
Category : Juvenile Fiction
ISBN : 9780141360690

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WaR: Wizards and Robots by will.i.am,Brian David Johnson Pdf

An explosive action-adventure novel created by will.i.am and renowned futurist Brian David Johnson. Wizards are real, robots from the future are here, and the fate of our world rests in the hands of one unsuspecting teenager. When a young man breaks into her home claiming her life is in danger, Ada Luring's world changes forever. Geller is a wizard, on the run from his father's hidden clan who want to kill Ada and her mother. Sara Luring is the scientist who will create the first robot, the wizards' age-old foes. But a robot has travelled back in time to find Ada, and will lay everything on the line to protect her, as she may just be the key to preventing the earth's destruction in the future. Ada, Geller and the robots must learn to work together to change the past and secure the future. But they don't have much time before a mysterious enemy launches its attack on Earth...

Author : James H. Carrott,Brian David Johnson
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Page : 423 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2013-02-11
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781449337957

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Vintage Tomorrows by James H. Carrott,Brian David Johnson Pdf

What would today’s technology look like with Victorian-era design and materials? That’s the world steampunk envisions: a mad-inventor collection of 21st century-inspired contraptions powered by steam and driven by gears. In this book, futurist Brian David Johnson and cultural historian James Carrott explore steampunk, a cultural movement that’s captivated thousands of artists, designers, makers, hackers, and writers throughout the world. Just like today, the late 19th century was an age of rapid technological change, and writers such as Jules Verne and H.G. Wells commented on their time with fantastic stories that jumpstarted science fiction. Through interviews with experts such as William Gibson, Cory Doctorow, Bruce Sterling, James Gleick, and Margaret Atwood, this book looks into steampunk’s vision of old-world craftsmen making beautiful hand-tooled gadgets, and what it says about our age of disposable technology. Steampunk is everywhere—as gadget prototypes at Maker Faire, novels and comic books, paintings and photography, sculptures, fashion design, and music. Discover how this elaborate view of a history that never existed can help us reimagine our future.

Author : Robin Feldman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 203 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2023-10-31
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781009432948

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Drugs, Money, and Secret Handshakes by Robin Feldman Pdf

Examines the pharmaceutical industry to expose how higher-priced drugs receive favorable treatment and patients are channeled toward the most expensive medicines.

Author : Taylor & Francis Group
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 480 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2021-09-30
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 103217403X

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Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research by Taylor & Francis Group Pdf

The Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research presents the voices leading OR and analytics to new heights in security through research, practical applications, case studies, and lessons learned in the field.

Author : Paul Tobin
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 159 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2022-05-31
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783031797552

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PSpice for Circuit Theory and Electronic Devices by Paul Tobin Pdf

PSpice for Circuit Theory and Electronic Devices is one of a series of five PSpice books and introduces the latest Cadence Orcad PSpice version 10.5 by simulating a range of DC and AC exercises. It is aimed primarily at those wishing to get up to speed with this version but will be of use to high school students, undergraduate students, and of course, lecturers. Circuit theorems are applied to a range of circuits and the calculations by hand after analysis are then compared to the simulated results. The Laplace transform and the s-plane are used to analyze CR and LR circuits where transient signals are involved. Here, the Probe output graphs demonstrate what a great learning tool PSpice is by providing the reader with a visual verification of any theoretical calculations. Series and parallel-tuned resonant circuits are investigated where the difficult concepts of dynamic impedance and selectivity are best understood by sweeping different circuit parameters through a range of values. Obtaining semiconductor device characteristics as a laboratory exercise has fallen out of favour of late, but nevertheless, is still a useful exercise for understanding or modelling semiconductor devices. Inverting and non-inverting operational amplifiers characteristics such as gain-bandwidth are investigated and we will see the dependency of bandwidth on the gain using the performance analysis facility. Power amplifiers are examined where PSpice/Probe demonstrates very nicely the problems of cross-over distortion and other problems associated with power transistors. We examine power supplies and the problems of regulation, ground bounce, and power factor correction. Lastly, we look at MOSFET device characteristics and show how these devices are used to form basic CMOS logic gates such as NAND and NOR gates.