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Floods and fires, food safety, hazardous materials, infectious diseases, and many other threats to public health and the environment call for ongoing public alertness. However, the ways in which these safety risks are currently assessed and managed fall short in addressing the uncertainties of future threats. In this vital report, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy provides an exhaustive overview of the political, economic, and ethical dimensions of various risks and the safety policies aimed at reducing them.
An Uncertain Safety by Thomas Wenzel,Boris Drožđek Pdf
This book addresses the psychosocial and medical issues of forced migration due to war, major disasters and political as well as climate changes. The topics are discussed in the context of public health and linked to organizational, legal and practical strategies that can offer guidance to professionals, as well as governmental and non-governmental organizations. Both internal and international displacement present substantial challenges that require new solutions and integrated approaches. Issues covered include an overview of current health challenges in the new refugee crises: medicine and mental health in disaster areas, long-term displacement and mental health, integration of legal, medical, social and health economic issues, children and unaccompanied minors, ethical challenges in service provision, short and long-term issues in host countries, models of crises intervention, critical issues, such as suicide prevention, new basic and “minimal” intervention models adapted to limited resources in psychosocial and mental health care, rebuilding of health care in post-disaster/conflict countries, training and burn-out prevention. The book was developed in collaboration with the World Psychiatric Association, and is endorsed by Fabio Grandi (UN High Commissioner for Refugees), Manfred Nowak (former UN Special Rapporteur for Torture), and Jorge Aroche (President of IRCT).
Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution Network Reliability by Xiangping Meng,Zhaoyu Pian Pdf
Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution and Network Reliability discusses the important topics revolving around the control of complex uncertain systems using the intelligent coordination control mechanism, a topic that has become the research focus of current control and computer fields. The book provides theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis, focusing on practical problems and algorithms within the field. Provides effective solutions for complex control systems Presents theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis Focuses on practical problems and algorithms
Uncertain Risks Regulated by Ellen Vos,Michelle Everson Pdf
Uncertain Risks Regulated compares various models of risk regulation in order to understand how these systems shape the relationship between law and science, and how they attempt to overcome public distrust in science-based decision-making. The book contributes to the ongoing debate relating to uncertainty and risks - and the difficulties faced by the European Union in particular - in regulating theses issues, taking account of both national and international constraints. The term 'uncertain risk' is comparable with notions of hazard and indeterminate risk, as deployed within the social sciences; but it also aims to capture the modern regulatory reality that a non-quantifiable hazard must still be addressed by society, law and its regulators. Decisions must be taken in the face of uncertainty. And, whilst it is not possible to provide clear cut models of risk regulation, in focusing on regulatory practices at a national, EU and international level, the contributors to this volume aim to use fact finding as a core instrument of learning for risk regulation.
Rationality in an Uncertain World by Gerhard Banse,Imre Hronszky,Gordon L. Nelson Pdf
Die Beiträge dieses Bandes, der aus dem ersten Symposium des ”Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalising World“ in Budapest hervorgegangen ist, widmen sich zwei Problemstellungen: Erstens der Möglichkeit rationaler Entscheidungen im Bereich technischer Entwicklung unter den Bedingungen von Ungewißheit (”uncertainty“), d.h. dem Verständnis von, dem Leben in und dem Umgang mit einer ”ungewissen“ Welt. Zweitens setzen sie sich mit den Perspektiven technischer Innovationen in einem sich wandelnden sozialen Umfeld auseinander, vorrangig aus der Perspektive ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit und ihrer sozialen Voraussetzungen. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei die Themen: Rationalität und Ungewißheit, Nachhaltige Technologien in einer sich wandelnden sozialen Umwelt, Technologiepolitik in einer sich globalisierenden Welt, Schlußfolgerungen für Politik und (universitäre) Bildung. Da die Autoren unterschiedliche Disziplinen der Natur-, Technik-, Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften sowie Politik und Wirtschaft repräsentieren, ergibt sich ein aufschlußreiches Panorama unterschiedlicher Sichten, Herangehensweisen, Prioritätensetzungen, Lösungsvorschläge und Erfahrungen.
Uncertain eternity, or eternal uncertainty? by Karel Svačina Pdf
Tato kniha se zabývá sporem o plány na výstavbu hlubinného úložiště pro vysoce radioaktivní odpad v České republice. Od 90. let státní orgány vytipovaly několik míst, která by pro výstavbu úložiště mohla být vhodná. Záměr se však setkal s trvalým odporem dotčených obcí i neziskových organizací. Spor trvá bezmála dvě desetiletí, a dá se říci, že zatím nedošlo k výraznému posunu. Kniha podrobně rozebírá dotyčný spor na základě analýzy rozhovorů s klíčovými aktéry, pozorování z jednání a debat, vládních dokumentů či technických zpráv. S pomocí literatury vědních studií kniha analyzuje spor z hlediska toho, jak se v něm zachází s nejistotou a rizikem, a argumentuje pro posun z perspektivy založené na riziku směrem k perspektivě založené na nejistotě, jež by mohla pomoci spor odblokovat.
Evaluating Architectural Safeguards for Uncertain AI Black-Box Components by Scheerer, Max Pdf
Although tremendous progress has been made in Artificial Intelligence (AI), it entails new challenges. The growing complexity of learning tasks requires more complex AI components, which increasingly exhibit unreliable behaviour. In this book, we present a model-driven approach to model architectural safeguards for AI components and analyse their effect on the overall system reliability.
Nonlinear Interval Optimization for Uncertain Problems by Chao Jiang,Xu Han,Huichao Xie Pdf
This book systematically discusses nonlinear interval optimization design theory and methods. Firstly, adopting a mathematical programming theory perspective, it develops an innovative mathematical transformation model to deal with general nonlinear interval uncertain optimization problems, which is able to equivalently convert complex interval uncertain optimization problems to simple deterministic optimization problems. This model is then used as the basis for various interval uncertain optimization algorithms for engineering applications, which address the low efficiency caused by double-layer nested optimization. Further, the book extends the nonlinear interval optimization theory to design problems associated with multiple optimization objectives, multiple disciplines, and parameter dependence, and establishes the corresponding interval optimization models and solution algorithms. Lastly, it uses the proposed interval uncertain optimization models and methods to deal with practical problems in mechanical engineering and related fields, demonstrating the effectiveness of the models and methods.
Evolutionary Computation in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments by Shengxiang Yang,Yew-Soon Ong,Yaochu Jin Pdf
This book compiles recent advances of evolutionary algorithms in dynamic and uncertain environments within a unified framework. The book is motivated by the fact that some degree of uncertainty is inevitable in characterizing any realistic engineering systems. Discussion includes representative methods for addressing major sources of uncertainties in evolutionary computation, including handle of noisy fitness functions, use of approximate fitness functions, search for robust solutions, and tracking moving optimums.
Adapting to an Uncertain Climate by Tiago Capela Lourenço,Ana Rovisco,Annemarie Groot,Carin Nilsson,Hans-Martin Füssel,Leendert Van Bree,Roger B. Street Pdf
Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops.
Living in a world where speed, mobility and movement have become the norm gives rise to uncertainty, diversity, and interconnectivity. Being endowed with a global and flexible mindset allows you to take charge of a sustainable and successful career. The more agile you are, the better you will create and seize opportunities, keep moving, be ready to face instability, and have an entrepreneurial mindset regarding your career plan. No matter your background, your experience, or your curriculum, your perception will help you steer your career smoothly and ride waves of change without losing sight of your vision. Succeeding in Uncertain Times will teach you how to: - Have a global mindset either in learning or at work; - Steer your career; - Be more flexible and open-minded; - Visualize opportunities.
Uncertain Power: The Struggle for a National Energy Policy discusses several issues pertaining to the energy situation in the U.S., such as the public, the government, and the risks. The opening chapter discusses a delicate balance among the public, experts, and government. Chapter 2 tackles the failure of consensus on energy, and Chapter 3 deals with energy policy and democratic theory. The fourth chapter reviews the neglect of social risk assessment; the fifth chapter discusses valuing of human life. Chapter 6 tackles the media coverage of complex technological issues, and Chapter 7 covers the governance of nuclear power. The eighth chapter covers the national energy policy from state and local perspectives, while the ninth chapter reviews selling saved energy, considered as a new role for the utilities. Chapter 10 discusses energy and security, and Chapter 11 tackles history as a guide to the future. The last chapter covers the political geology of the energy problems. Readers who concern themselves regarding several factors that affect energy source, supply, and distribution along with its socio-economic implication will find this book a great source of insight regarding the issue.
The Mathematics of the Uncertain by Eduardo Gil,Eva Gil,Juan Gil,María Ángeles Gil Pdf
This book is a tribute to Professor Pedro Gil, who created the Department of Statistics, OR and TM at the University of Oviedo, and a former President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and OR (SEIO). In more than eighty original contributions, it illustrates the extent to which Mathematics can help manage uncertainty, a factor that is inherent to real life. Today it goes without saying that, in order to model experiments and systems and to analyze related outcomes and data, it is necessary to consider formal ideas and develop scientific approaches and techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Mathematics is crucial in this endeavor, as this book demonstrates. As Professor Pedro Gil highlighted twenty years ago, there are several well-known mathematical branches for this purpose, including Mathematics of chance (Probability and Statistics), Mathematics of communication (Information Theory), and Mathematics of imprecision (Fuzzy Sets Theory and others). These branches often intertwine, since different sources of uncertainty can coexist, and they are not exhaustive. While most of the papers presented here address the three aforementioned fields, some hail from other Mathematical disciplines such as Operations Research; others, in turn, put the spotlight on real-world studies and applications. The intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists, but practitioners in these areas will certainly also find the book a very interesting read.
Uncertain Multi-Criteria Optimization Problems by Dragan Pamucar Pdf
Most real-world search and optimization problems naturally involve multiple criteria as objectives. Generally, symmetry, asymmetry, and anti-symmetry are basic characteristics of binary relationships used when modeling optimization problems. Moreover, the notion of symmetry has appeared in many articles about uncertainty theories that are employed in multi-criteria problems. Different solutions may produce trade-offs (conflicting scenarios) among different objectives. A better solution with respect to one objective may compromise other objectives. There are various factors that need to be considered to address the problems in multidisciplinary research, which is critical for the overall sustainability of human development and activity. In this regard, in recent decades, decision-making theory has been the subject of intense research activities due to its wide applications in different areas. The decision-making theory approach has become an important means to provide real-time solutions to uncertainty problems. Theories such as probability theory, fuzzy set theory, type-2 fuzzy set theory, rough set, and uncertainty theory, available in the existing literature, deal with such uncertainties. Nevertheless, the uncertain multi-criteria characteristics in such problems have not yet been explored in depth, and there is much left to be achieved in this direction. Hence, different mathematical models of real-life multi-criteria optimization problems can be developed in various uncertain frameworks with special emphasis on optimization problems.
Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 457 pages File Size : 44,8 Mb Release : 2009-06-12 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9780387890142
Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf
In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.