Uncertainties In Environmental Modelling And Consequences For Policy Making

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Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making

Philippe Baveye,Jaroslav Mysiak,Magdeline Laba
Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making Book PDF

Author : Philippe Baveye,Jaroslav Mysiak,Magdeline Laba
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 405 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2009-05-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789048126361

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Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making by Philippe Baveye,Jaroslav Mysiak,Magdeline Laba Pdf

Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.

Uncertainty and the Environment

Richard Young
Uncertainty and the Environment Book PDF

Author : Richard Young
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015054120202

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Uncertainty and the Environment by Richard Young Pdf

After critiquing the use of traditional models such as expected utility in environmental decision-making, Young, a consultant with Arthur Anderson in London, argues for evaluating decision-making models in relation to the rationality of the way decisions are made. He outlines an alternative model of making decisions under uncertainty derived from the work of George Shackle, and applies it to environmental decision making by the government of Belize, the Inter- American Development Bank, the World Bank, and other institutions. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty

Robert Nau,Erik Grønn,Mark J. Machina,Olvar Bergland
Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Robert Nau,Erik Grønn,Mark J. Machina,Olvar Bergland
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 269 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2013-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789401713603

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Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty by Robert Nau,Erik Grønn,Mark J. Machina,Olvar Bergland Pdf

The 1980s and 1990s have been a period of exciting new developments in the modelling of decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Extensions of the theory of expected utility and alternative theories of `non-expected utility' have been devised to explain many puzzles and paradoxes of individual and collective choice behaviour. This volume presents some of the best recent work on the modelling of risk and uncertainty, with applications to problems in environmental policy, public health, economics and finance. Eighteen papers by distinguished economists, management scientists, and statisticians shed new light on phenomena such as the Allais and St. Petersburg paradoxes, the equity premium puzzle, the demand for insurance, the valuation of public health and safety, and environmental goods. Audience: This work will be of interest to economists, management scientists, risk and policy analysts, and others who study risky decision-making in economic and environmental contexts.

Environmental Modelling

Keith Beven
Environmental Modelling Book PDF

Author : Keith Beven
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 393 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2018-09-03
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781498717977

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Environmental Modelling by Keith Beven Pdf

Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk

Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making

Jerzy A. Filar,Alain Haurie
Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Jerzy A. Filar,Alain Haurie
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 347 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2010-05-03
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781441911308

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Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making by Jerzy A. Filar,Alain Haurie Pdf

The 21st century promises to be an era dominated by international response to c- tain global environmental challenges such as climate change, depleting biodiversity and biocapacity as well as general atmospheric, water and soil pollution problems. Consequently, Environmental decision making (EDM) is a socially important ?eld of development for Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS). - certainty is an important feature of these decision problems and it intervenes at very different time and space scales. The Handbook on “Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making” provides a guided tour of selected methods and tools that OR/MS offer to deal with these issues. Below, we brie?y introduce, peer reviewed, chapters of this handbook and the topics that are treated by the invited authors. The ?rst chapter is a general introduction to the challenges of environmental decision making, the use of OR/MS techniques and a range of tools that are used to deal with uncertainty in this domain.

Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support

Anthony J. Jakeman,Alexey A. Voinov,Andrea E. Rizzoli,Serena H. Chen
Environmental Modelling Software and Decision Support Book PDF

Author : Anthony J. Jakeman,Alexey A. Voinov,Andrea E. Rizzoli,Serena H. Chen
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2008-09-11
Category : Science
ISBN : 0080915302

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Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support by Anthony J. Jakeman,Alexey A. Voinov,Andrea E. Rizzoli,Serena H. Chen Pdf

The complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental problems requires that they are dealt with in an integrated manner. Modeling and software have become key instruments used to promote sustainability and improve environmental decision processes, especially through systematic integration of various knowledge and data and their ability to foster learning and help make predictions. This book presents the current state-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software and identifies the future challenges in the field. State-of-the-art in environmental modeling and software theory and practice for integrated assessment and management serves as a starting point for researchers Identifies the areas of research and practice required for advancing the requisite knowledge base and tools, and their wider usage Best practices of environmental modeling enables the reader to select appropriate software and gives the reader tools to integrate natural system dynamics with human dimensions

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk Book PDF

Author : Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789401725835

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Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt Pdf

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Risk and Crisis Communication During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Martin N. Ndlela
Risk and Crisis Communication During the COVID 19 Pandemic Book PDF

Author : Martin N. Ndlela
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2023-10-13
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781000986310

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Risk and Crisis Communication During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Martin N. Ndlela Pdf

This book examines the challenges of communicating risk and crisis messages during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide recommendations for managing future global health crises. Given that outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics are global crises that require global solutions, the book suggests that the world community needs to build resilient crisis management institutions and message management systems. Through international case studies, in-depth interviews, textual, content, narrative and document analysis, the book provides comprehensive accounts of how normative risk communication strategies were invoked, applied, disrupted, questioned, and changed during the COVID- 19 pandemic. It explores themes including crisis preparedness, outbreak communication, lockdown messages, communication uncertainty, risk message strategies and the challenges of information disorders to show that trust in supranational and national institutions is crucial for the effective management of future global public health crises. A thorough assessment of the multiple challenges faced by public health authorities and audiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, this book will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and students in the field of Risk, Crisis and Health Communication and Public Health and Disaster Management.

Advances in Hydroinformatics

Philippe Gourbesville,Jean Cunge,Guy Caignaert
Advances in Hydroinformatics Book PDF

Author : Philippe Gourbesville,Jean Cunge,Guy Caignaert
Publisher : Springer
Page : 1231 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2018-02-26
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789811072185

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Advances in Hydroinformatics by Philippe Gourbesville,Jean Cunge,Guy Caignaert Pdf

This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment Book PDF

Author : Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2016-11-15
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119028109

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Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson Pdf

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Van-Nam Huynh,Bac Le,Katsuhiro Honda,Masahiro Inuiguchi,Youji Kohda
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making Book PDF

Author : Van-Nam Huynh,Bac Le,Katsuhiro Honda,Masahiro Inuiguchi,Youji Kohda
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2023-10-26
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783031467752

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Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by Van-Nam Huynh,Bac Le,Katsuhiro Honda,Masahiro Inuiguchi,Youji Kohda Pdf

These two volumes constitute the proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2023, held in Kanazawa, Japan, during November 2-4, 2023. The 58 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 107 submissions. The papers deal with all aspects of research results, ideas, and experiences of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.

Probability is All We Have

James K. Hammitt
Probability is All We Have Book PDF

Author : James K. Hammitt
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2019-03-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429578298

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Probability is All We Have by James K. Hammitt Pdf

First published in 1990. In this study, the author suggests ways that policy-makers can think about environmental policy choice that responds to the importance of uncertainty and delay. Hammitt describes several tools for environmental policy analysis and illustrates their application to important policy issues. In the first part of the book, dealing with stratospheric-ozone depletion, the author describes techniques for accommodating outcome uncertainties. The second part of the study considers the health risks associated with pesticide residues on food. The final section addresses the issue of potential global climate change, and describes how the tools explored can be applied to this new challenge. This book should be of greatest interest to academic, government, and industry analysts and others concerned with improving methods for environmental-policy making.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper
Publisher : Springer
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-04-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030052522

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau,Warren E. Walker,Pieter J. T. M. Bloemen,Steven W. Popper Pdf

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty

Alexander Golub,Anil Markandya
Modeling Environment Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Alexander Golub,Anil Markandya
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2008-12-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134041206

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Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty by Alexander Golub,Anil Markandya Pdf

This book presents a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy. There is a broad consensus on the key elements of climate-change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. However, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. Any policy implementation will result in an irreversible but environment-improving investment in alternative technologies; this change will generate immediately-realized costs but significantly-delayed benefits. Hence, a critical element in policy selection is the inherent uncertainty in the climate and economy that can be expected over time.

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling Book PDF

Author : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 472 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-08-19
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030536695

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Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling by José Eduardo Souza De Cursi Pdf

This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).