Uncertainty Propagation And Importance Measure Assessment

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Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment

Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment Book PDF

Author : Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Publisher : FonCSI
Page : 69 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2013-12-14
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment by Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni Pdf

The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented:  a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature;  assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor;  an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2013-12-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118763063

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by Terje Aven,Piero Baraldi,Roger Flage,Enrico Zio Pdf

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty

Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Publisher : FonCSI
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty by Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni Pdf

This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.

Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment

Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment Book PDF

Author : Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Publisher : FonCSI
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2014-06-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment by Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni Pdf

The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.

Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease

Alan L Buchman
Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease Book PDF

Author : Alan L Buchman
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 3428 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2015-08-06
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781138001237

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Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease by Alan L Buchman Pdf

This evidence-based book serves as a clinical manual as well as a reference guide for the diagnosis and management of common nutritional issues in relation to gastrointestinal disease. Chapters cover nutrition assessment; macro- and micronutrient absorption; malabsorption; food allergies; prebiotics and dietary fiber; probiotics and intestinal microflora; nutrition and GI cancer; nutritional management of reflux; nutrition in IBS and IBD; nutrition in acute and chronic pancreatitis; enteral nutrition; parenteral nutrition; medical and endoscopic therapy of obesity; surgical therapy of obesity; pharmacologic nutrition, and nutritional counseling.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Robert A. Fjeld,Timothy A. DeVol,Nicole E. Martinez
Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health Book PDF

Author : Robert A. Fjeld,Timothy A. DeVol,Nicole E. Martinez
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 532 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2023-08-29
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119675402

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Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health by Robert A. Fjeld,Timothy A. DeVol,Nicole E. Martinez Pdf

QUANTITATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR HUMAN HEALTH An updated edition of the foundational guide to environmental risk analysis Environmental risk analysis is a systematic process essential for the evaluation, management, and communication of the human health risk posed by the release of contaminants to the environment. Performed correctly, risk analysis is an essential tool in the protection of the public from the health hazards posed by chemical and radioactive contaminants. Cultivating the quantitative skills required to perform risk analysis competently is a critical need. Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health meets this need with a thorough, comprehensive coverage of the fundamental knowledge necessary to assess environmental impacts on human health. It introduces readers to a robust methodology for analyzing environmental risk, as well as to the fundamental principles of uncertainty analysis and the pertinent environmental regulations. Now updated to reflect the latest research and new cutting-edge methodologies, this is an essential contribution to the practice of environmental risk analysis. Readers of the second edition of Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health will also find: Detailed treatment of source and release characterization, contaminant migration, exposure assessment, and more New coverage of computer-based analytical methods A new chapter of case studies providing actual, real-world examples of environmental risk assessments Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health is must-have for graduate and advanced undergraduate students in civil engineering, environmental engineering, and environmental science, as well as for risk analysis practitioners in industry, environmental consultants, and regulators.

Risk Assessment

Marvin Rausand
Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Marvin Rausand
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 467 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-06-12
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118281109

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Risk Assessment by Marvin Rausand Pdf

An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Data Uncertainty and Important Measures

Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak
Data Uncertainty and Important Measures Book PDF

Author : Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2018-03-13
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781848219939

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Data Uncertainty and Important Measures by Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak Pdf

The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.

Les facteurs humains et organisationnels dans le projet de conception d’un système à risques

François Daniellou
Les facteurs humains et organisationnels dans le projet de conception d un syst me risques Book PDF

Author : François Daniellou
Publisher : FonCSI
Page : 109 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2013-07-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Les facteurs humains et organisationnels dans le projet de conception d’un système à risques by François Daniellou Pdf

Pour favoriser des interventions humaines performantes et sûres, la démarche FHO se base sur une analyse approfondie de l’activité humaine dans les situations existantes, et sur une simulation de l’activité probable lors des futures opérations, en fonction des options techniques et organisationnelles qui se dessinent. Elle suppose la mise en place d’une maîtrise d’ouvrage forte, une articulation précise avec la maîtrise d’œuvre, et une participation de différents acteurs, notamment exploitants. Les étapes de la démarche FHO doivent être planifiées dès le début de l’avant-projet et s’étendent jusqu’à l’évaluation après démarrage.

Data Uncertainty and Important Measures

Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak
Data Uncertainty and Important Measures Book PDF

Author : Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2018-01-19
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781119489344

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Data Uncertainty and Important Measures by Christophe Simon,Philippe Weber,Mohamed Sallak Pdf

The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 668 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 1994-01-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309048941

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Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology,Commission on Life Sciences,Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants Pdf

The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

Cornelia Spitzer,Ulrich Schmocker,Vinh N. Dang
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Book PDF

Author : Cornelia Spitzer,Ulrich Schmocker,Vinh N. Dang
Publisher : Springer
Page : 3803 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2014-01-04
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780857294104

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Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management by Cornelia Spitzer,Ulrich Schmocker,Vinh N. Dang Pdf

A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.

Importance Measures in Reliability, Risk, and Optimization

Way Kuo,Xiaoyan Zhu
Importance Measures in Reliability Risk and Optimization Book PDF

Author : Way Kuo,Xiaoyan Zhu
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 486 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2012-05-10
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781118304174

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Importance Measures in Reliability, Risk, and Optimization by Way Kuo,Xiaoyan Zhu Pdf

This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems. Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a clear and complete introduction to the topic. Through describing the reliability importance and the fundamentals, it covers advanced topics such as signature of coherent systems, multi-linear functions, and new interpretation of the mathematical programming problems. Key highlights: Generalizes the concepts behind importance measures (such as sensitivity and perturbation analysis, uncertainty analysis, mathematical programming, network designs), enabling readers to address large-scale problems within various fields effectively Covers a large range of importance measures, including those in binary coherent systems, binary monotone systems, multistate systems, continuum systems, repairable systems, as well as importance measures of pairs and groups of components Demonstrates numerical and practical applications of importance measures and the related methodologies, including risk analysis in nuclear power plants, cloud computing, software reliability and more Provides thorough comparisons, examples and case studies on relations of different importance measures, with conclusive results based on the authors’ own research Describes reliability design such as redundancy allocation, system upgrading and component assignment. This book will benefit researchers and practitioners interested in systems design, reliability, risk and optimization, statistics, maintenance, prognostics and operations. Readers can develop feasible approaches to solving various open-ended problems in their research and practical work. Software developers, IT analysts and reliability and safety engineers in nuclear, telecommunications, offshore and civil industries will also find the book useful.

Reliability and Safety Engineering

Ajit Kumar Verma,Srividya Ajit,Durga Rao Karanki
Reliability and Safety Engineering Book PDF

Author : Ajit Kumar Verma,Srividya Ajit,Durga Rao Karanki
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 557 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2010-08-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781849962322

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Reliability and Safety Engineering by Ajit Kumar Verma,Srividya Ajit,Durga Rao Karanki Pdf

Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz., • electronics engineering, • software engineering, • mechanical engineering, • structural engineering, and • power systems engineering. They describe the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Case studies from typical nuclear power plants, as well as from structural, software, and electronic systems are also discussed. Reliability and Safety Engineering combines discussions of the existing literature on basic concepts and applications with state-of-the-art methods used in reliability and risk assessment of engineering systems. It is designed to assist practicing engineers, students and researchers in the areas of reliability engineering and risk analysis.

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Terje Aven
Quantitative Risk Assessment Book PDF

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2011-03-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781139496438

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Quantitative Risk Assessment by Terje Aven Pdf

Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.