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Author : Svante Bodin
Publisher : World Meteorological Organization
Page : 90 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 1983
Category : Meteorology
ISBN : UCSD:31822009772955
Summaries in English, French, Russian, Spanish.
Author : Joe S. Restivo
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 1971
Category : Weather forecasting
ISBN : MINN:31951D036983196
Certain techniques applicable to improve short-range forecasting are discussed briefly and references are furnished from which the reader can obtain detailed information on the various methods. (Author).
Author : Alan R. Bohne
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 1988
Category : Cloud forecasting
ISBN : UOM:39015095142405
A methodology for real-time operations has been developed for the short-term forecasting of cloud and precipitation fields. Pattern recognition techniques are employed to extract useful features from the data field and extrapolation techniques are used to project these features into the future. To reduce computational load, contours defined by directional codes are used to delineate features. These contours are subdivided and attributes such as length, location, and location of each segment are determined. Segment matching is performed for successive observations and attribute changes are monitored over time. Several techniques for the forecasting of attributes have been explored, and an exponential smoothing filter and a linear trend adaptive smoothing filter have been chosen as most appropriate. Currently analysis is performed on a minicomputer and image processor system utilizing radar reflectivity data. Refinement of these techniques and extension into a more comprehensive short term forecasting program is planned.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1968
Category : Forecasting, Military
ISBN : UOM:39015021221653
Author : Robert G. Miller
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 250 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1988
Category : Meteorology in aeronautics
ISBN : UCBK:C101358642
Author : H. Stuart Muench
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 1982
Category : Atmospheric temperature
ISBN : UOM:39015095143262
Skill-scores, relative to climatology, for some parameters such as ceiling/visibility and precipitation are much lower than others, such as minimum temperature and pressure gradients. Also, the skill-scores have been improving appreciably faster for forecasts of 36 h (and more) than for forecasts of 24 h (and less). At the shortest ranges, less than 12 h, skill-scores relative to persistence are rather low, with values of 0.0 to 0.5 as typical. Power spectra for wind, temperature, dew point, rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient (inversely related to visibility) were computed for periods of 10 min to 20 days, using fall season data from northeast United States. Analyses of these spectra indicate some of the problems in forecasting. Wind, temperature, and dew point spectra all had considerably more power at periods longer than 24 h than did rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient, which relates to differences in forecast skill-scores. The greatest contribution to change for 2- to 8-h forecasts comes from disturbances with periods of about 8 to 32 h. Disturbances with periods shorter than about 24 h are purposedly filtered from current operational numerical models, in order to improve performance over longer ranges. The disturbances filtered out may be relatively unimportant to wind and temperature forecasts but quiet important for cloud and precipitation forecasts. Disturbances with periods less than about 2 h cannot be adequately resolved temporally or spatially using current weather data, yet these disturbances have sufficient amplitude to contribute noise in the analyses of longer period disturbances.
Author : H. Stuart Muench
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1981
Category : Cloud forecasting
ISBN : UOM:39015095141456
This report describes the development and testing of an objective technique to forecast cloudiness and precipitation through extrapolation of satellite imagery. By utilizing on objectively determined cloud-motion vector, the technique makes local forecasts of satellite parameters (brightness and IR temperature), with high temporal resolution, using simple linear extrapolation. Algorithms are then used to convert the satellite parameters to total cloud cover, probability of 1-hour precipitation, and presence of low, middle, and high clouds. The test program computed motion vectors and made forecasts out to 7 hours, in half-hour steps, at 30 locations. The program was tested on 12 spring and fall cases, using half-hourly GOES imagery. For periods beyond 2 hours, forecasts of cloud cover and precipitation were markedly better than persistence, which deficiencies in specification hindered short-period performance. Forecasts of cloud layers were worse than persistence due to inadequate specification algorithms. The net results were quite encouraging, and further refinements and developments are planned.
Author : Antonio Gabaldón,María Carmen Ruiz-Abellón,Luis Alfredo Fernández-Jiménez
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2021-02-26
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783039434428
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.
Author : Robin A. Vaughan
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 409 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789400905092
The power of microwave remote sensing for studying the oceans of the world was demonstrated conclusively by the SEASAT mission in 1978. Since then, no further satellite-flown instruments have been available to provide further data of this type. However, the proposed launch of ESA's ERS-1 satellite will lead to a new set of active microwave instruments being flown in space in 1990. Even though similar data has been obtained from aircraft-flown instruments SAR, scatterometers, altimeters etc. - a great deal of activity has been taking place to develop the necessary expertise in handling and analysing such data when it comes on-stream from ERS-1 and from subsequent satellites. It was against this background that the scientific Affairs Division of NATO again agreed to sponsor an ASI in Dundee in 1988. Its purpose was to review existing knowledge of the extraction of marine and atmospheric geophysical parameters from satellite-gathered microwave data and to enable scientists to prepare themselves and their computing systems to utilise the new data when it becomes available. The importance of the data is largely as input parameters to assist in the fitting of boundary conditions in large computer models. The course was concerned more with the non-imaging instruments, that is with passive radiometers, altimeters and scatterometers, than with the (imaging) synthetic aperture radar.
Author : H. Stuart Muench,Rupert S. Hawkins
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Image processing
ISBN : UOM:39015095138999
Author : H. Stuart Muench,William E. Lamkin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 1976
Category : Airports
ISBN : UOM:39015095135615
As part of a program to improve short-range forecasts of weather conditions at aircraft terminals, a digital radar system was established at Air Force Geophysics Laboratory, Bedford Mass. The system, consisting of AN/FPS-77, digital interface, microwave transmitter-receiver, video integrator and computer, was installed in late 1972. Since that time the system has been used in conjunction with a network of 26 automated weather stations to make experimental forecasts of visibility and severe-weather conditions. The radar output of digital maps of radar intensity was found to be very convenient, but the inability of the radar to detect small water droplets limits the use in low visibility forecasting primarily to heavy rain storms and snow storms. In severe storms modest success was attained forecasting gusts, using digital maps. The large amounts of weather information from the network and radar frequently saturated the forecaster making forecasts at 15-min intervals, and relief was sought in the form of objective aids. Preliminary relationships between radar intensity, extinction coefficient (visibility) and rainfall rate have been formulated. In addition, a technique was developed using digital radar maps to obtain motion vectors and make probability forecasts of severe weather conditions. The calibration procedure relies on intensity of ground targets (hills and towers) for day-to-day relative calibration, and absolute calibration has been limited to Z-R relations. (Author).
Author : United States. Army Air Forces. Weather Division
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1943
Category : Meteorology
ISBN : STANFORD:36105122892651
Author : Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
Page : 386 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780081005057
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
Author : United States. Air Force Department
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 1968
Category : Electronic
ISBN : MINN:30000010503286
Author : Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2012-01-25
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781119961079
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).