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Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8392191552
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2010-10-23
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048188970
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2010-11-30
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048188989
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author : James Raymer,Frans Wiilekens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 404 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470985540
At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2021-12-09
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030830397
This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030424725
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8360462038
Author : Marek Okólski
Publisher : Amsterdam University Press
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789089644572
This volume of the latest research in European migration embraces a continent-wide outlook on migration processes and accounts particularly from Southern and Eastern European perspectives. This is accomplished by analyzing the long-term transition that countries undergo from net emigration to net immigration, as well as developments in their migrant inflows, integration, and policy. The mix of authors—representing several academic centers across Europe yet pursuing a common vision of European migration past, present, and future—utilize new empirical evidence, specially designed and collected.
Author : Alan G. Wilson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2016-05-09
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781118937471
A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics: Presents in depth models of global dynamics. Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid. Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development. Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development. Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts. This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.
Author : Nicolae Marinescu
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 340 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2017-05-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781443891790
This volume investigates the challenges confronted by the European Union (EU) as an international actor deeply influenced by migration. This has been a key phenomenon in recent years and holds great political, economic and social importance for the future of the whole European continent. The book focuses on specific aspects related to East-West migration, such as the importance of migration for economic development and the multi-faceted impact of migration on sending countries, as well as recipient countries. It also includes an overview of the myriad of reasons which stand for the fundamental decision whether to emigrate or not. The collection offers a novel Eastern European perspective on contemporary migration, a hotly debated topic inside the European Union, which is far from being fully recognised and understood, and it also provides valuable, complex and comprehensive insight into the issue of South Eastern migration to Western Europe.
Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2021-09-30
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 303042474X
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Author : McAuliffe, Marie
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2021-12-07
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781839100611
This forward-looking Research Handbook showcases cutting-edge research on the relationship between international migration and digital technology. It sheds new light on the interlinkages between digitalisation and migration patterns and processes globally, capturing the latest research technologies and data sources. Featuring international migration in all facets from the migration of tech sector specialists through to refugee displacement, leading contributors offer strategic insights into the future of migration and mobility.
Author : Pietro Capone,Vito Getuli ,Farzad Pour Rahimian,Nashwan Dawood ,Alessandro Bruttini,Tommaso Sorbi
Publisher : Firenze University Press
Page : 1279 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2024-06-14
Category : Architecture
ISBN : 9791221502893
Within the overarching theme of “Managing the Digital Transformation of Construction Industry” the 23rd International Conference on Construction Applications of Virtual Reality (CONVR 2023) presented 123 high-quality contributions on the topics of: Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Building Information Modeling (BIM), Simulation and Automation, Computer Vision, Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Linked Data, Semantic Web, Blockchain, Digital Twins, Health & Safety and Construction site management, Green buildings, Occupant-centric design and operation, Internet of Everything. The editors trust that this publication can stimulate and inspire academics, scholars and industry experts in the field, driving innovation, growth and global collaboration among researchers and stakeholders.
Author : matteo villa
Publisher : Ledizioni
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2020-05-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9788855262026
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Author : Isil Zeynep Turkan Ipek,Gökçe Bayindir Goularas
Publisher : Lexington Books
Page : 211 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2018-10-18
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781498586023
International migration has been subject to many studies, conducted by academics, students, policy makers, and in civil society. As the migration flows continue to increase amongst countries, new dynamics shape international politics, economy, and culture. In this context, the main purpose of this book is to present a contemporary understanding of international migration through an interdisciplinary analysis. The authors investigate migration and its dynamics in different perspectives (cultural, economic, political, judicial, and sociological) by considering the latest changes in the international relations agenda. This book sheds light on different minor aspects of international migration in a critical perspective.