Forecasting International Migration

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2010-10-23
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048188970

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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by Jakub Bijak Pdf

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2010-11-30
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048188989

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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by Jakub Bijak Pdf

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Author : matteo villa
Publisher : Ledizioni
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2020-05-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9788855262026

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The Future of Migration to Europe by matteo villa Pdf

Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8392191552

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Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting by Jakub Bijak Pdf

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8360462038

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Forecasting international migration by Jakub Bijak Pdf

Author : James Raymer,Frans Wiilekens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 404 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470985540

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International Migration in Europe by James Raymer,Frans Wiilekens Pdf

At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.

Author : Marek Kupiszewski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2013-02-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048189489

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International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by Marek Kupiszewski Pdf

The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

Author : National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2000-10-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309069908

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Beyond Six Billion by National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections Pdf

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Author : Marek Kupiszewski
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2013-02-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048189470

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International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by Marek Kupiszewski Pdf

The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

Author : Corrado Bonifazi
Publisher : Amsterdam University Press
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789053568941

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International Migration in Europe by Corrado Bonifazi Pdf

Literaturangaben

Author : United Nations
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2019-11-27
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789290687894

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World Migration Report 2020 by United Nations Pdf

Since 2000, IOM has been producing world migration reports. The World Migration Report 2020, the tenth in the world migration report series, has been produced to contribute to increased understanding of migration throughout the world. This new edition presents key data and information on migration as well as thematic chapters on highly topical migration issues, and is structured to focus on two key contributions for readers: Part I: key information on migration and migrants (including migration-related statistics); and Part II: balanced, evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2009-08-11
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264064126

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The Future of International Migration to OECD Countries by OECD Pdf

Looking to the year 2030, this volume explores the social, economic and environmental forces which, in OECD countries, may combine to attract migrants of various types and backgrounds, and which, primarily in the developing world, may persuade people to leave or stay at home.

Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030424725

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Developments in Demographic Forecasting by Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2000-09-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309172028

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Beyond Six Billion by National Research Council,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Population Projections Pdf

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-15
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264851016

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International Migration Outlook 2019 by OECD Pdf

The 2019 edition of the International Migration Outlook analyses recent developments in migration movements and policies in OECD countries and some non-OECD economies. It also examines the evolution of labour market outcomes of immigrants in OECD countries.