Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2010-10-23
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048188970

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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by Jakub Bijak Pdf

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2010-11-30
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9048188989

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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by Jakub Bijak Pdf

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8392191552

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Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting by Jakub Bijak Pdf

Author : James Raymer,Frans Wiilekens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 404 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2008-04-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470985540

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International Migration in Europe by James Raymer,Frans Wiilekens Pdf

At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.

Author : Marek Kupiszewski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2013-02-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789048189489

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International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by Marek Kupiszewski Pdf

The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

Author : matteo villa
Publisher : Ledizioni
Page : 106 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2020-05-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9788855262026

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The Future of Migration to Europe by matteo villa Pdf

Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

Author : McAuliffe, Marie
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2021-12-07
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781839100611

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Research Handbook on International Migration and Digital Technology by McAuliffe, Marie Pdf

This forward-looking Research Handbook showcases cutting-edge research on the relationship between international migration and digital technology. It sheds new light on the interlinkages between digitalisation and migration patterns and processes globally, capturing the latest research technologies and data sources. Featuring international migration in all facets from the migration of tech sector specialists through to refugee displacement, leading contributors offer strategic insights into the future of migration and mobility.

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8360462038

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Forecasting international migration by Jakub Bijak Pdf

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2021-12-09
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030830397

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography by Jakub Bijak Pdf

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

Author : Işıl Zeynep Turkan İpek,Gökçe Bayındır Goularas
Publisher : Lexington Books
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2018-10-18
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781498586023

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International Migration and Challenges in the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century by Işıl Zeynep Turkan İpek,Gökçe Bayındır Goularas Pdf

This book analyzes the latest developments in international migration in the twenty-first century through an interdisciplinary perspective. The book uses sociological, economic, judicial, political, and geopolitical approaches to present the evolution of the contemporary international migration process.

Author : Peter Scholten
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2022-06-03
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030923778

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Introduction to Migration Studies by Peter Scholten Pdf

This open access textbook provides an introduction to theories, concepts and methodological approaches concerning various facets of migration and migration-related diversities. It starts with an introduction to migration studies and continues with an introductory reading of migration drivers, migration infrastructures, migration flows, and several transversal topics such as gender and migration. It also covers politics, policies and governance as well as specific research methods. As an interactive guide, this book develops an innovative format that brings a connection with various online sources. This means that whereas the chapters bring together literature in a coherent way, they are also connected to IMISCOE's online interactive Migration Research Hub for further reading and for more empirical material on migration and diversity. As such, this textbook provides a very useful introductory reading for undergraduate and graduate students as well as for policymakers, policy advisors, and all those interested in studies on migration and migration-related diversities.

Author : John Bryant,Junni L. Zhang
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2018-06-27
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780429841347

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Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting by John Bryant,Junni L. Zhang Pdf

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Author : Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2020-09-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030424725

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Developments in Demographic Forecasting by Stefano Mazzuco,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : William Cochrane,Michael P. Cameron,Omoniyi Alimi
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 237 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789811592751

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Labor Markets, Migration, and Mobility by William Cochrane,Michael P. Cameron,Omoniyi Alimi Pdf

This volume is devoted to three key themes central to studies in regional science: the sub-national labor market, migration, and mobility, and their analysis. The book brings together essays that cover a wide range of topics including the development of uncertainty in national and subnational population projections; the impacts of widening and deepening human capital; the relationship between migration, neighborhood change, and area-based urban policy; the facilitating role played by outmigration and remittances in economic transition; and the contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants. All of the contributions here are by leading figures in their fields and employ state-of-the art methodologies. Given the variety of topics and themes covered this book, it will appeal to a broad range of readers interested in both regional science and related disciplines such as demography, population economics, and public policy.

Author : Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman
Publisher : Springer
Page : 349 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2019-03-28
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9783030050757

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Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman Pdf

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.