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Author : Edward M. Gramlich
Publisher : OECD
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Budget
ISBN : STANFORD:36105005524165
Author : Martin Larch,João Nogueira Martins
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Economic indicators
ISBN : IND:30000122421567
Fiscal indicators are the backbone of effective fiscal policy-making, including the coordination and surveillance of budgetary policy at the EU level. The quality and success of the EU surveillance framework, in particular the timeliness and appropriateness of any policy recommendation or decision taken in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), crucially depend on the quality of its diagnostic instruments. The right conclusions can only be drawn if the underlying analysis is comprehensive and accurate.
Author : Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2011-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455253333
This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
Author : Thomas Orlik
Publisher : Pearson Education
Page : 272 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2011-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0132620219
In Understanding China’s Economic Indicators, leading economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets. As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment–and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors.
Author : Martin Bruns,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2016-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475594799
Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound Analysis, which allows identifying robust leading indicators of fiscal distress from a large set. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of latest generation crisis models, we find that both fiscal (e.g., fiscal balance, foreign exchange debt) and non-fiscal leading indicators (e.g., output, FX reserves, current account balance, and openness) are robust. In addition, we find that a fiscal vulnerability indicator based on fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators offers a 29% gain in predictive power compared to a traditional one based on fiscal leading indicators only. It also has good predictive power out of sample, with 78 percent of crises predicted correctly and only 34 percent false alarms issued for the period 2008–15. This suggests that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators should be taken into account when assessing country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress.
Author : Ms.Jocelyn Horne
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1991-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451842081
This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.
Author : Richard J. Reeder
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Economic indicators
ISBN : UIUC:30112018887635
Author : Martin Larch
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1990
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:887166410
Author : John Grant
Publisher : University of Toronto Press
Page : 190 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 1999-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 080207863X
A second edition of a book written to help non-economists to use the commonly reported economic indicators effectively and gain an informed picture of what is going on in a economy.
Author : Ms.Svetlana Cerovic,Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Andrew Hodge,Paulo Medas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2018-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484372913
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
Author : Richard Yamarone
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2012-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118233139
A handy reference to understanding key economic indicators and acting on them New economic data are reported virtually every trading day. Investors, big and small, have to understand how these reports influence their investments, portfolios, and future sources of income. The third edition of The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators examines the most important economic statistics currently used on Wall Street. In a straightforward and accessible style, it tells you exactly what these reports measure and what they really mean. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource sheds some much-needed light on theses numbers and data releases and shows you what to look for and how to react to various economic indicators. Covers everything from gross domestic product and employment to consumer confidence and spending Author Richard Yamarone shares his experience as a former trader, academic, and current Wall Street economist Illustrated with instructive graphs and charts that will put you ahead of market curves Engaging and informative, this book will put you in a better position to make more informed investment decisions, based of some of today's most influential economic indicators.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 1990-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451957044
The search for ways to ensure growth while accommodating necessary expenditure cuts to correct fiscal imbalances, has often led to the advocacy of the government own savings (GOS) measure as an indicator of growth potential in fiscal adjustment. This paper critically examines the rationale of this approach and its implicit assumption of the primacy of capital expenditure for the growth process. In light of the problems revealed in the GOS approach, the paper explores the possibility of alternative weighted expenditure indicators and illustrates the proposed technique, employing data from Thailand.
Author : Richard Yamarone
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 358 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-01-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118204665
Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results – if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. Quickly evaluate economic trends Make more informed investment decisions Understand the most essential indicators Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource.
Author : Robert Graham King,Ross Levine
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Economic development
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Financial indicators may be linked to growth through two "channels" in particular: the share of GDP allocated to investment and the efficiency with which resources are used. It is empirically important to identify which financial intermediaries are doing the intermediation and to whom the financial system is allocating credit rather than simply using proxies for the overall size of the financial system, as has been common in past studies.
Author : Henrik Braconier,Steinar Holden
Publisher : Nordic Council of Ministers
Page : 94 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 9289303689
