Download Full eBooks in PDF
Incorporating Uncertainty And Risk In Rainfall Based Flood Estimates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle version is available to download in english. Read online anytime anywhere directly from your device. Click on the download button below to get a free pdf file of Incorporating Uncertainty And Risk In Rainfall Based Flood Estimates book. This book definitely worth reading, it is an incredibly well-written.
Author : W. J. C. Meynink,D. K. Brady
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Flood forecasting
ISBN : 0867765143
Author : Hubert Chanson,W. J. C. Meynink,D. K. Brady,P. D. Cummings
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Civil enginering
ISBN : UIUC:30112042411394
Author : Shreeda Maskey
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2004-11-23
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780203026823
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 702 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Aeronautics
ISBN : UIUC:30112048646605
Author : Keith Beven,Jim Hall
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 684 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2014-01-13
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781783263127
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis. Contents:Introduction:Flood Risk Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Jim W Hall)Use of Models in Flood Risk Management (Keith Beven)Theoretical Perspectives:A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis (Keith Beven)Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty (R E Chandler)Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Jonathan Rougier)The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Keith Beven)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis:Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs (R E Chandler, V S Isham, P J Northrop, H S Wheater, C J Onof and N A Leith)Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis (Thomas R Kjeldsen, Rob Lamb and Sarka D Blazkova)Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values (C Keef)Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling (Paul D Bates, Florian Pappenberger and Renata J Romanowicz)Flood Defence Reliability Analysis (Pieter van Gelder and Han Vrijling)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas (Slobodan Djordjević, Zoran Vojinović, Richard Dawson and Dragan A Savić)The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments (John Chatterton, Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Sally Priest)Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary (Jim W Hall, Hamish Harvey and Owen Tarrant)Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting:Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting (Albrecht H Weerts, Dong-Jun Seo, Micha Werner and John Schaake)A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Peter C Young, Renata J Romanowicz and Keith Beven)Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications (Kevin Sene, Albrecht H Weerts, Keith Beven, Robert J Moore, Chris Whitlow, Stefan Laeger and Richard Cross)Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the US National Weather Service (Robert Hartman and John Schaake)Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft FEWS Forecasting System (Micha Werner, Paolo Reggiani and Albrecht H Weerts)Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting (Kevin Horsburgh and Jonathan Flowerdew)Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk:Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk (Cíntia B Uvo and Robin T Clarke)Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk (Robert L Wilby, Hayley J Fowler and Bill Donovan)Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change (Stewart W Franks)Communicating Uncertainties:Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science (Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander and David Leedal) Readership: Hydrologists, civil engineers, meteorologists, flood risk managers, environmental scientists, hydraulic engineers and consultants. Key Features:Dedicated to the important problem of uncertainty in flood risk analysisTakes an applied perspective with a range of case studiesProvides a comprehensive coverage of uncertainties in flood risk analysis, including flood forecasting, simulation modeling and impacts assessmentKeywords:Floods;Flood Risk Management;Uncertainty Estimation;Flood Frequency;Rainfall Models
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2006-10-09
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309180535
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Jery R. Stedinger,David C. Heath,Kay Thompson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Dam safety
ISBN : ERDC:35925002624440
Author : Janos J. Bogardi,Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2002-01-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781139432245
35 leading multi-disciplinary scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on uncertainty and reliability related aspects of water resource systems. The volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.
Author : World Meteorological Organization
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Flood forecasting
ISBN : WISC:89115727802
The manual describes procedure for estimating the maximum probable precipitation and the maximum probable flood. This is the third revised version. The first and second editions of this manual were published in 1973 and 1986, respectively. The current edition keeps a majority of the content from the second edition. Newly added content in this third edition primarily results from experiences, since 1986, in directly estimating PMP for the requirements of a given project in a design watershed on probable maximum flood (PMF) in China, the United States of America, Australia and India.--Publisher's description.
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee to Assess NEXRAD Flash Flood Forecasting Capabilities at Sulphur Mountain, California
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2005-01-28
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309093163
The nation's network of more than 130 Next Generation Radars (NEXRADs) is used to detect wind and precipitation to help National Weather Service forecasters monitor and predict flash floods and other storms. This book assesses the performance of the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD in Southern California, which has been scrutinized for its ability to detect precipitation in the atmosphere below 6000 feet. The book finds that the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD provides crucial coverage of the lower atmosphere and is appropriately situated to assist the Los Angeles-Oxnard National Weather Service Forecast Office in successfully forecasting and warning of flash floods. The book concludes that, in general, NEXRAD technology is effective in mountainous terrain but can be improved.
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Civil engineering
ISBN : UCAL:B4936885
Author : Levi D. Brekke
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 76 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2009-11
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781437920499
Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation¿s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. Charts and tables.
Author : H. Y. Kang,A. M. Aseervatham,P. Nielsen
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Civil enginering
ISBN : UIUC:30112028101399
Author : Shreeda Maskey
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 194 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2004-05-15
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781482284027
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 370 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Electronic
ISBN : NWU:35556041837428