Judgement

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818

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Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Pdf

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Author : Minnie Louie Johnson Abercrombie
Publisher : Free Assn Books
Page : 156 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 1853431060

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The Anatomy of Judgement by Minnie Louie Johnson Abercrombie Pdf

The author is concerned with the origin and development of judgment, the relation between inner and outer worlds, the selective and interpretative nature of perception and the role of context or total situation. The book is a reminder of the emotional basis of learning.

Author : Neil Hanson
Publisher : Corgi Books
Page : 447 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Great Fire, London, England, 1666
ISBN : 0552167479

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The Dreadful Judgement by Neil Hanson Pdf

"If the story that struck the Grand Banks off Newfoundland in October 1991 was The Perfect Storm, the fire that destroyed London in September 1666 was The Perfect Fire. A fire needs only three things: a spark to ignite it, and the fuel and oxygen to feed it. In 1666, a ten-month drought had turned London into a tinderbox. The older parts of the city were almost entirely composed of wood-frame buildings and shanties. The riverside wharves were stack with wood, coal, oil, tallow, hemp, pitch, brandy, and almost very other combustible material known to seventeenth century man. On 2 September 1666, London ignited. Over the next five days the gale blew without interruption and the resulting firestorm destroyed the whole city. THE DREADFUL JUDGEMENT tells the true, human story of the Great Fire of London through the eyes of the individuals caught up in it. It is a historical story combining modern knowledge of the physics of fire, forensics and arson investigation with the moving eye-witness accounts to produce a searing depiction of the terrible reality of the Great Fire of London and its impact on those who lived through it."

Author : Howard Caygill
Publisher : Wiley-Blackwell
Page : 428 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 1989-01-01
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0631165967

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Art of Judgement by Howard Caygill Pdf

Author : David Boud,Rola Ajjawi,Phillip Dawson,Joanna Tai
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2018-04-19
Category : Education
ISBN : 9781351612517

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Developing Evaluative Judgement in Higher Education by David Boud,Rola Ajjawi,Phillip Dawson,Joanna Tai Pdf

A key skill to be mastered by graduates today is the ability to assess the quality of their own work, and the work of others. This book demonstrates how the higher education system might move away from a culture of unhelpful grades and rigid marking schemes, to focus instead on forms of feedback and assessment that develop the critical skills of its students. Tracing the historical and sociocultural development of evaluative judgement, and bringing together evidence and practice design from a range of disciplines, this book demystifies the concept of evaluative judgement and shows how it might be integrated and encouraged in a range of pedagogical contexts. Contributors develop various understandings of this often poorly understood concept and draw on their experience to showcase a toolbox of strategies including peer learning, self-regulated learning, self-assessment and the use of technologies. A key text for those working with students in the higher education system, Developing Evaluative Judgement in Higher Education will give readers the knowledge and confidence required to promote these much-needed skills when working with individual students and groups.

Author : William G. Lycan
Publisher : CUP Archive
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1988-02-26
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0521335809

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Judgement and Justification by William G. Lycan Pdf

Author : J.H Bernard
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2020-08-03
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9783752398380

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Kant's Critique of Judgement by J.H Bernard Pdf

Reproduction of the original: Kant's Critique of Judgement by J.H Bernard

Author : Michael E. Doherty
Publisher : Psychology Press
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0863779514

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Social Judgement Theory by Michael E. Doherty Pdf

This special issue of "Thinking and Reasoning" is devoted to social judgement theory SJT, which has its origins in Egon Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism.; The first paper discusses the history and theory of SJT and explores Hammond's distinction between coherence and correspondence criteria. The next paper presents the major methodological approaches of SJT, with a focus on the Lens Model. Four applications follow, including an exploration of the medical applications of SJT.

Author : Fiona Hughes
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2009-11-07
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781441147257

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Kant's 'Critique of Aesthetic Judgement' by Fiona Hughes Pdf

Kant's Critique of Judgment is one of the most important works in the history of philosophy. It is a classic text, in which Kant elucidates his aesthetic theory, and is an important piece of philosophical writing. In Kant's 'Critique of Judgment': A Reader's Guide, Fiona Hughes offers a clear and thorough account of this key philosophical work. The book offers a detailed review of the key themes and a lucid commentary that will enable readers to rapidly navigate the text. Concentrating on Kant's Critique of Aesthetic Judgment, the first and most commonly read part of this critique, Hughes explores the complex and important ideas inherent in the text and provides a cogent survey of the reception and influence of Kant's work. Geared towards the specific requirements of undergraduate students, this is the ideal companion to study of this most influential of texts.

Author : William Lucy
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 441 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2017-07-27
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781509913299

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Law's Judgement by William Lucy Pdf

Law's Judgement elucidates and defends a feature of contemporary law that is currently either overlooked or too glibly dismissed as morally troublesome or historically anachronistic. That feature is the abstract nature of law's judgement and its three components show that, when law judges us, it often does so in ignorance of our particular characters and abilities, on the one hand, and in ignorance of our context and circumstances, on the other. Law's judgement is thus insensitive to all or much that makes us the particular people we are. The book explores various connections between this mode of judgement and some of our most important legal and political values. It shows that law's abstract judgement is closely related to important juristic conceptions of personhood, responsibility and impartiality, and that these notions are not without moral significance. The book also examines the connections between modern law's judgement and three of our most important political values, namely, dignity, equality and community. It argues that, if we value particular conceptions of dignity, equality and community, then we must also value law's judgement. Illuminating these connections therefore serves a double purpose: first, it makes a case against those who counsel liberation from law's abstract judgement and, second, it redirects attention to the task of morally evaluating law's abstract judgement in its own terms.

Author : Immanuel Kant
Publisher : Good Press
Page : 318 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2024-01-09
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : EAN:8596547805052

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The Critique of Judgment (Theory of the Aesthetic Judgment & Theory of the Teleological Judgment) by Immanuel Kant Pdf

The Critique of Judgment, also translated as the Critique of the Power of Judgment and more commonly referred to as the third Critique, is a philosophical work by Immanuel Kant. Critique of Judgment completes the Critical project begun in the Critique of Pure Reason and the Critique of Practical Reason (the first and second Critiques, respectively). The book is divided into two main sections: the Critique of Aesthetic Judgment and the Critique of Teleological Judgment, and also includes a large overview of the entirety of Kant's Critical system, arranged in its final form. The end result of Kant's Critical Project is that there are certain fundamental antinomies in human Reason, most particularly that there is a complete inability to favor on the one hand the argument that all behavior and thought is determined by external causes, and on the other that there is an actual "spontaneous" causal principle at work in human behavior. Immanuel Kant (1724-1804) was a German philosopher, who, according to the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy is "the central figure of modern philosophy." Kant argued that fundamental concepts of the human mind structure human experience, that reason is the source of morality, that aesthetics arises from a faculty of disinterested judgment, that space and time are forms of our understanding, and that the world as it is "in-itself" is unknowable. Kant took himself to have effected a Copernican revolution in philosophy, akin to Copernicus' reversal of the age-old belief that the sun revolved around the earth.

Author : Noel M. Tichy,Warren G. Bennis
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 412 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2007-11-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781101216545

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Judgment by Noel M. Tichy,Warren G. Bennis Pdf

“With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus.

Author : Gabrielle Bernstein
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2018-01-02
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 9781501168994

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Judgment Detox by Gabrielle Bernstein Pdf

“Gabrielle is the real thing. I respect her work immensely.” —Dr. Wayne Dyer “A new role model.” —The New York Times “I came to one of Bernstein’s monthly lectures and got my first look at the woman I’d one day unabashedly refer to as ‘my guru.’” —Elle From #1 New York Times bestselling author Gabrielle Bernstein comes a clear, proactive, step-by-step process to release the beliefs that hold you back from living a better life. This six-step practice offers many promises. Petty resentments will disappear, compassion will replace attack, the energy of resistance will transform into freedom and you’ll feel more peace and happiness than you’ve ever known. I can testify to these results because I’ve lived them. I’ve never felt more freedom and joy than I have when writing and practicing these steps. My commitment to healing my own relationship to judgment has changed my life in profound ways. My awareness of my judgment has helped me become a more mindful and conscious person. My willingness to heal these perceptions has set me free. I have been able to let go of resentments and jealousies, I can face pain with curiosity and love, and I forgive others and myself much more easily. Best of all, I have a healthy relationship to judgment so that I can witness when it shows up and I can use these steps to quickly return to love. The Judgment Detox is an interactive six-step process that calls on spiritual principles from the text A Course in Miracles, Kundalini yoga, the Emotional Freedom Technique (aka Tapping), meditation, prayer and metaphysical teachings. I’ve demystified these principles to make them easy to commit to and apply in your daily life. Each lesson builds upon the next to support true healing. When you commit to following the process and become willing to let go, judgment, pain and suffering will begin to dissolve. And the miracles will keep coming. Once you begin to feel better you start to release your resistance to love. The more you practice these steps, the more love enters into your consciousness and into your energetic vibration. When you’re in harmony with love, you receive more of what you want. Your energy attracts its likeness. So when you shift your energy from defensive judgment to free-flowing love your life gets awesome. You’ll attract exactly what you need, your relationships will heal, your health will improve and you’ll feel safer and more secure. One loving thought at a time creates a miracle. Follow these steps to clear all blocks, spread more love and live a miraculous life.

Author : Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030464745

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Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French Pdf

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Author : Richard Bourke,Raymond Geuss
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 363 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2009-08-20
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780521764988

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Political Judgement by Richard Bourke,Raymond Geuss Pdf

Leading scholars re-examine political judgement, attempting to understand the relationship between political theory and political practice.