Risk Choice And Uncertainty

Author : George G. Szpiro
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 413 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-01-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231550970

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Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty by George G. Szpiro Pdf

At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 245 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2008-08-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540684367

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Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by Mohammed Abdellaoui,John D. Hey Pdf

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781602060050

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Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by Frank H. Knight Pdf

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author : Mark Machina,W. Kip Viscusi
Publisher : Newnes
Page : 897 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2013-11-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780444536860

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Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by Mark Machina,W. Kip Viscusi Pdf

The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Author : J. Geweke
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 1992-08-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0792319044

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Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by J. Geweke Pdf

As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).

Author : K. Borch,J. Mossin
Publisher : Springer
Page : 461 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 1968-01-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781349152483

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Risk and Uncertainty by K. Borch,J. Mossin Pdf

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 576 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-19
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781439857502

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Principles of Risk Analysis by Charles Yoe Pdf

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i

Author : V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 523 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781468453171

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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making by V.T. Covello,Lester B. Lave,Alan Moghissi,V.R.R. Uppuluri Pdf

The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : Springer
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2021-10-05
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 3030785017

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Risk Theory by Nicholas Rescher Pdf

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.

Author : Hans-Werner Sinn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642615474

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Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty by Hans-Werner Sinn Pdf

The Fundamental Issues Involved Why do we need a theory of uncertainty? It is a fact that almost all man's economic decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty, but this fact alone does not provide a strong enough argument for making the effort necessary to generalize ordinary preference theory designed for a world of perfect certainty. In accordance with Occam's Razor, the mathematician may well welcome a generalization of assumptions even if it does not promise more than a restatement of known results. The economist, however, will only be well disposed towards making the effort if he can expect to achieve new insights and interesting results, for he is interested in the techniques necessary for the generalization only as means to an end, not as ends in themselves. A stronger reason for developing a theory of uncertainty, therefore, seems to be the fact that there are kinds of economic activities to which the non-stochastic preference theory has no access or has access only through highly artificial constructions. Such activities include portfolio decisions of wealth holders, speculation, and insurance. These will be considered in detail in the last chapter of the book. The main purpose of this book, however, is not to apply a theory of uncertainty to concrete economic problems, the purpose rather is to formulate such a theory.

Author : Marjolein B.A. van Asselt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 444 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-09
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9789401725835

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Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk by Marjolein B.A. van Asselt Pdf

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Author : Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson
Publisher : Dreamtech Press
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 817722686X

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Risk: How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World by Zeger Degraeve,Nigel Nicholson Pdf

The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making. The book is a concise overview of the principles of risk management and decision making. It helps you analyse risks, choose the right way to handle them and improve your decision making.

Author : Kenneth Joseph Arrow
Publisher : Harvard University Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0674137620

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Individual Choice Under Certainty and Uncertainty by Kenneth Joseph Arrow Pdf

The third volume of Arrow's Collected Papers concerns the basic concept of rationality as it applies to an economic decision maker. In particular, it addresses the problem of choice faced by consumers in a multicommodity world and presents specific models of choice useful in economic analysis. It also discusses choice models under uncertainty.

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2009-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521517324

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Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by Itzhak Gilboa Pdf

This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Author : Jean-Jacques Laffont
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262121360

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Economie de L'incertain Et de L'information by Jean-Jacques Laffont Pdf

The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics.