Short Term Impacts Of Covid 19 On The Malawian Economy Initial Results

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 10 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2020-11-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Author : Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

An update on the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021 by Baulch, Bob,Botha, Rosemary,Pauw, Karl Pdf

Author : Ambler, Kate,Herskowitz, Sylvan,Maredia, Mywish K.,Mockshell, Jonathan
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 7 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2021-03-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts round 2 by Ambler, Kate,Herskowitz, Sylvan,Maredia, Mywish K.,Mockshell, Jonathan Pdf

This note summarizes perceptions of COVID-19 impacts and risks from a panel phone survey of rural households in eight districts in rural Malawi. While the results from the first round conducted in August 2020 were reported in a previous brief, this note will focus on the evolution of indicators from round 1 to round 2, conducted in November 2020. The sample comprises 833 households interviewed in both survey rounds. Two additional follow-up survey rounds are planned for 2021. The survey was originally designed to measure the seasonality of labor activities but was adjusted to assess COVID-19 impacts and perceptions in rural Malawi. Though initial concern of the impact of COVID-19 on Malawi was high at the start of the global pandemic, case numbers stayed relatively low through the end of 2020. Seven-day averages of 50-100 cases during the first survey round had dropped to under 5 in the fourth quarter of the year. Our analysis will examine how people’s perceptions evolved during this period of low infections.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2020-12-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery by Aragie, Emerta,Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum,Thurlow, James Pdf

In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Author : Carmody, Pádraig,McCann, Gerard
Publisher : Policy Press
Page : 218 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2020-10-21
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781529215892

Get Book

COVID-19 in the Global South by Carmody, Pádraig,McCann, Gerard Pdf

Available Open Access under CC-BY-NC-ND licence. Bringing together a range of experts across various sectors, this important volume explores some of the key issues that have arisen in the Global South with the COVID-19 pandemic. Situating the worldwide health crisis within broader processes of globalisation, the book investigates implications for development and gender, as well as the effects on migration, climate change and economic inequality. Contributors consider how widespread and long-lasting responses to the pandemic should be, while paying particular attention to the accentuated risks faced by vulnerable populations. Providing answers that will be essential to development practitioners and policy makers, the book offers vital insights into how the impact of COVID-19 can be mitigated in some of the most challenging socio-economic contexts worldwide.

Author : Ochieng, Dennis O.,Baulch, Bob
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 15 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2020-10-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

Get Book

Report on a study to crowdsource farmgate prices for maize and soybeans in Malawi by Ochieng, Dennis O.,Baulch, Bob Pdf

This report summarizes the findings from an innovative study to collect the prices that farmers received for maize and soybeans during the 2020 main marketing season in Malawi. Between April and July, whenever they sold maize or soybeans, farmers were asked to report the prices they received by calling or texting a toll-free number managed by Farm Radio Trust. Reported prices were then compared to the minimum farmgate prices set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security. Our findings show that 75 percent of maize farmers and 90 percent of soybean farmers sold their crops below the official minimum farmgate prices. On average, prices received by these farmers were approximately three-quarters of official minimum farmgate prices.

Author : UNESCO
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2020-07-21
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789231003899

Get Book

Socio-economic and cultural impacts of COVID-19 on Africa by UNESCO Pdf

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

Get Book

Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Fernando M. Reimers
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 467 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2021-09-14
Category : Education
ISBN : 9783030815004

Get Book

Primary and Secondary Education During Covid-19 by Fernando M. Reimers Pdf

This open access edited volume is a comparative effort to discern the short-term educational impact of the covid-19 pandemic on students, teachers and systems in Brazil, Chile, Finland, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, Spain, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. One of the first academic comparative studies of the educational impact of the pandemic, the book explains how the interruption of in person instruction and the variable efficacy of alternative forms of education caused learning loss and disengagement with learning, especially for disadvantaged students. Other direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic diminished the ability of families to support children and youth in their education. For students, as well as for teachers and school staff, these included the economic shocks experienced by families, in some cases leading to food insecurity and in many more causing stress and anxiety and impacting mental health. Opportunity to learn was also diminished by the shocks and trauma experienced by those with a close relative infected by the virus, and by the constrains on learning resulting from students having to learn at home, where the demands of schoolwork had to be negotiated with other family necessities, often sharing limited space. Furthermore, the prolonged stress caused by the uncertainty over the resolution of the pandemic and resulting from the knowledge that anyone could be infected and potentially lose their lives, created a traumatic context for many that undermined the necessary focus and dedication to schoolwork. These individual effects were reinforced by community effects, particularly for students and teachers living in communities where the multifaceted negative impacts resulting from the pandemic were pervasive. This is an open access book.

Author : Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780896297838

Get Book

Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis by Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow Pdf

This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis

Author : World Bank Group
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2020-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815805

Get Book

Global Economic Prospects, June 2020 by World Bank Group Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Author : Lisa C. Smith,Ali Subandoro
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 157 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2007-01-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780896297678

Get Book

Measuring Food Security Using Household Expenditure Surveys by Lisa C. Smith,Ali Subandoro Pdf

Author : Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 397 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2022-02-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464817540

Get Book

The Long Shadow of Informality by Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu Pdf

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.