Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks And Policy Switching
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Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching by Robert P. Flood,Peter M. Garber Pdf
The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Identifying Speculative Bubbles by Bradley Jones Pdf
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.
Author : Robert P. Flood,Nancy P. Marion Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 40 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 1998-08 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : UCSD:31822026225672
Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions by Robert P. Flood,Nancy P. Marion Pdf
Currency crises in Europe and Mexico, as well as those unfolding in Asia, have renewed efforts to understand and control the forces underlying speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates. Until the European crises in 1992-93, there was general agreement about the underlying cause of speculative attacks. A country would ultimately face an attack if it ran macroeconomic policies inconsistent in the longer term with the fixed exchange rate. For example, if a government monetized a large fiscal deficit, excessive money growth would cause its international reserve holdings to decline and eventually trigger an attack by speculators. The government would be forced to abandon the fixed exchange rate and let the currency depreciate. The view that deteriorating fundamentals led to currency crises was formalized in a set of "first-generation" crisis models.1
International Finance and Financial Crises by Mr.Peter Isard,Mr.Andrew K. Rose,Assaf Razin Pdf
This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition by Harold L. Vogel Pdf
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Author : David F. DeRosa Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation Page : 206 pages File Size : 54,5 Mb Release : 2021-04-02 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781952927119
Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market by David F. DeRosa Pdf
The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Encyclopedia of Political Economy: L-Z by Phillip Anthony O'Hara Pdf
This groundbreaking Encyclopedia is the very first fully-refereed A-Z compendium of the main principles, concepts, problems, institutions, schools and policies associated with political economy. Based on developments in political economy since the 1960s, it is designed to provide a comprehensive introduction to the field as well as being an authoritative reference work. Undergraduates taking courses in political economy or graduate students coming to the field for the first time will rely on this work as a key point of reference and for direction in their further reading. This lucid work compares for the first time the disparate theories of political economy (e.g, Marxist, Feminist, Sraffian etc.) and emphasizes the application of their principles to real world problems such as inflation, unemployment, development and financial instability. The extensive international team of consultants and contributors has produced a monumental work with truly global perspective.
Early Speculative Bubbles by Douglas E. French Pdf
LARGE PRINT EDITION! More at LargePrintLiberty.com The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble - not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French's Master's thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world's first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law's system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today's bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.
Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by Harold L. Vogel Pdf
Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises by Mr.Robert P. Flood,Pierre-Richard Agénor,Jagdeep S. Bhandari Pdf
This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Quantitative Financial Economics by Keith Cuthbertson,Dirk Nitzsche Pdf
This new edition of the hugely successful Quantitative Financial Economics has been revised and updated to reflect the most recent theoretical and econometric/empirical advances in the financial markets. It provides an introduction to models of economic behaviour in financial markets, focusing on discrete time series analysis. Emphasis is placed on theory, testing and explaining ‘real-world’ issues. The new edition will include: Updated charts and cases studies. New companion website allowing students to put theory into practice and to test their knowledge through questions and answers. Chapters on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping and market microstructure.
Currency Speculation in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes by Anja Zenker Pdf
Speculative currency crises seem to have become a common and inevitable phenomenon in the international monetary system. Against this background, various approaches have been developed by economists to cover the broad range of situations in which balance-of-payments crises occurred. Anja Zenker provides a comprehensive insight into the body of theoretical and empirical literature about currency speculation in fixed exchange rate regimes. The author discusses different generations of theoretical models and their empirical relevance in recent currency crises. Moreover, she considers diverse policy options which attempt to avoid speculative attacks on exchange rate pegs.
Law, Bubbles, and Financial Regulation by Erik F. Gerding Pdf
Financial regulation can fail when it is needed the most. The dynamics of asset price bubbles weaken financial regulation just as financial markets begin to overheat and the risk of crisis spikes. At the same time, the failure of financial regulations adds further fuel to a bubble. This book examines the interaction of bubbles and financial regulation. It explores the ways in which bubbles lead to the failure of financial regulation by outlining five dynamics, which it collectively labels the "Regulatory Instability Hypothesis." . The book concludes by outlining approaches to make financial regulation more resilient to these dynamics that undermine law.
