Summary Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It How Can We Know By Philip E Tetlock

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400888818

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Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Pdf

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 367 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691175973

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Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock Pdf

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher : Crown
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2015-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780804136709

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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner Pdf

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Author : Isaiah Berlin
Publisher : Weidenfeld & Nicolson
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2014-11-13
Category : Literary Criticism
ISBN : 9781780228433

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The Hedgehog And The Fox by Isaiah Berlin Pdf

Isaiah Berlin's classic essay on Tolstoy - an exciting new edition with new criticism and a foreword. 'The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.' This fragment of Archilochus, which gives this book its title, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Tolstoy. There have been various interpretations of Archilochus' fragment; Isaiah Berlin has simply used it, without implying anything about the true meaning of the words, to outline a fundamental distinction that exists in mankind, between those who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things (foxes) and those who relate everything to a central all-embracing system (hedgehogs). When applied to Tolstoy, the image illuminates a paradox of his philosophy of history, and shows why he was frequently misunderstood by his contemporaries and critics. Tolstoy was by nature a fox, but he believed in being a hedgehog.

Author : Shortcut Edition
Publisher : Shortcut Edition
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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SUMMARY - Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It How Can We Know By Philip E. Tetlock by Shortcut Edition Pdf

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover why being an expert in politics does not allow you to make more reliable forecasts than the average person. You will also learn : that the analysis of 30,000 forecasts has determined the real value of political predictions; that the forecasts of its experts have been put in competition with each other and compared to the forecasts made by algorithms; that opposing political speeches does not make democracy work; that experts remain indispensable despite their inability to make reliable forecasts; that the work, contrary to its ambition, has fed a whole populist and anti-elite current. "Expert Political Judgment" (EPJ) revolutionized Anglo-Saxon political science. For the first time, a rather arid "a priori" academic work fascinated the general public and immediately found its readers. Its author, Philip E. Tetlock, a psychologist by training and a specialist in political and organizational sciences, currently teaches at the University of Pennsylvania. EPJ has often been crudely reduced to the idea that experts, especially political experts, are as ignorant as others, and that their predictions are no more reliable than "darts thrown at random at a target by chimpanzees". This idea, although caricatured, is widespread, especially since it is all that the press has picked up on it. With this revolutionary book, he advocates applying to political decision-making the method that presided over the writing of the book, based on forecasting tournaments. Will EPJ be at the origin of the next democratic revolution? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
Page : 319 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2010-10-12
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780771035210

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Future Babble by Dan Gardner Pdf

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2006
Category : History
ISBN : 0472031430

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Unmaking the West by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock,Richard Ned Lebow,Geoffrey Parker Pdf

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Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 355 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691215075

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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by Philip E. Tetlock,Aaron Belkin Pdf

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Author : Tom Nichols
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 337 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2024
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780197763834

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The Death of Expertise by Tom Nichols Pdf

"In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--

Author : Michael Desch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 364 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2021-09-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691228990

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Cult of the Irrelevant by Michael Desch Pdf

How professionalization and scholarly “rigor” made social scientists increasingly irrelevant to US national security policy To mobilize America’s intellectual resources to meet the security challenges of the post–9/11 world, US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates observed that “we must again embrace eggheads and ideas.” But the gap between national security policymakers and international relations scholars has become a chasm. In Cult of the Irrelevant, Michael Desch traces the history of the relationship between the Beltway and the Ivory Tower from World War I to the present day. Recounting key Golden Age academic strategists such as Thomas Schelling and Walt Rostow, Desch’s narrative shows that social science research became most oriented toward practical problem-solving during times of war and that scholars returned to less relevant work during peacetime. Social science disciplines like political science rewarded work that was methodologically sophisticated over scholarship that engaged with the messy realities of national security policy, and academic culture increasingly turned away from the job of solving real-world problems. In the name of scientific objectivity, academics today frequently engage only in basic research that they hope will somehow trickle down to policymakers. Drawing on the lessons of this history as well as a unique survey of current and former national security policymakers, Desch offers concrete recommendations for scholars who want to shape government work. The result is a rich intellectual history and an essential wake-up call to a field that has lost its way.

Author : Jeff Cobb
Publisher : AMACOM
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2012-11-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780814432266

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Leading the Learning Revolution by Jeff Cobb Pdf

The lucrative market of lifelong learning is one author Jeff Cobb has gained decades of experience working in as an entrepreneur and adviser. In this book, he explains how to tap into this growing market, which rewards the most forward-thinking training firms, professional associates, continuing education programs, and entrepreneurial speakers and consultants. Leading the Learning Revolution also showcases how to use technology to create high-impact learning opportunities, how to develop content that is faster and better than the competition's, how to convert prospects to customers by building connections, and how you can benefit from the bottom-line results of the multibillion-dollar lifelong learning business. With more than sixty million adults currently engaged in webinars, webcasts, in-house training, continuing education classes, and more the opportunities are endless for individuals, companies, and organizations in the education business. But this means there’s also more competition than ever--and it’s not uncommon for newcomers to topple the old guard. Learn how to keep pace with the need for instantly accessible learning materials and flexible delivery methods, discover new ways to help your students experience community and connection, and become a leader in your market. Leading the Learning Revolution provides a complete guide to starting or advancing an online education business that will put you in the forefront of your field.

Author : Phil Rosenzweig
Publisher : Profile Books
Page : 435 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2014-02-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781847659736

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Left Brain, Right Stuff by Phil Rosenzweig Pdf

Dozens of books have been published recently on the errors and biases that affect our judgments and choices. Drawing on cognitive science, their lessons are excellent for many kinds of decisions - consumer choice and financial investments, for example - but stop short of addressing many of the most important decisions we face in management, where we can actively influence outcomes and where competitive forces mean we have to outperform rivals. As Phil Rosenzweig shows, drawing on examples from business, sports and politics, this sort of decision-making relies on mastering two very different abilities. First, the analytical problem-solving skills associated with the brain's left hemisphere; and second, what Tom Wolfe called 'the Right Stuff': the ability to take calculated risks. Bringing fresh and often surprising insights to topics including confidence and overconfidence, the uses and limits of decision models, leadership and authenticity, expert performance and deliberate practice, competitive bidding and new venture management, Left Brain, Right Stuff, the myth-busting follow-up to The Halo Effect, explains how to perform when making even the most difficult decisions.

Author : Jacques Lussier,Andrew Ang,Mark Carhart,Craig Bodenstab,Philip E. Tetlock,Warren Hatch,David Rapach
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2016-10-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781944960094

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Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting by Jacques Lussier,Andrew Ang,Mark Carhart,Craig Bodenstab,Philip E. Tetlock,Warren Hatch,David Rapach Pdf

Author : George Breslauer
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 807 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2019-03-07
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780429722677

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Learning In U.s. And Soviet Foreign Policy by George Breslauer Pdf

Are policymakers capable of learning about the complex international environment they must deal with when formulating foreign policy? Interest in the phenomenon of "learning" has been growing, driven in part by the advent of Gorbachev, and by prospects for ending the Cold War. In this book, leading scholars explore the theoretical and practical imp

Author : Richard Stengel
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 326 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2002-02-05
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780684854922

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You're Too Kind by Richard Stengel Pdf

From the primates to the ancient world all the way to Hollywood, "You're Too Kind" presents a primer on flattery--where it originated, its development through the ages, and its myriad uses in contemporary culture.