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The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS by Mr.Markus Haacker Pdf
This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS by Markus Haacker Pdf
The paper addresses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita output and income, with particular emphasis on the role of labor mobility between the formal and informal sectors, and the impact of the epidemic on investment decisions. The study finds that HIV/AIDS affects both the supply of labor and the demand for labor in the formal sector. Only if there is a significant rise in the capital-labor ratio, will there be an increase in formal sector employment. However, this is associated with a decline in the rate of return to capital. To the extent that companies respond to this by reducing investment, conventional models underestimate the adverse impact on employment, per capita output, and income. The analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on output is complemented by an assessment of the impact on income.
Author : David A. Robalino,Carol Jenkins,Karim El Maroufi Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 40 pages File Size : 54,9 Mb Release : 2002 Category : AIDS (Disease) ISBN : 8210379456XXX
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa by David A. Robalino,Carol Jenkins,Karim El Maroufi Pdf
Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region--Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors--sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP. This paper--a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region--is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at [email protected].
The Economics of the Global Response to HIV/AIDS by Markus Haacker Pdf
The global response to HIV/AIDS has been a major aspect of global health and development policy over the last three decades. The book illustrates the devastating health impacts of the epidemic, with life expectancy in some countries falling to the lowest levels observed anywhere, and the remarkable success of the global HIV/AIDS response in reversing such extreme outcomes. Concerns about the implications of HIV/AIDS for economic development have played a role in motivating the global HIV/AIDS response. However, evidence on the impacts of HIV/AIDS on economic growth or poverty is weak, and the magnitude and relevance of such economic effects appears trivial compared to the consequences for life and health. Because of the success in extending access to treatment globally, HIV/AIDS has effectively transitioned into a chronic disease. This means that HIV/AIDS absorbs not only a substantial chunk of current global and national financial resources, but that these spending needs are projected to persist over decades. The costs of the HIV/AIDS response thus resemble a long-term financial liability, shaped by past and current policies. Relatedly, the calculus of cost-effectiveness of HIV/AIDS interventions has changed. People who become infected with HIV can now expect to not die because of AIDS; at the same time, each HIV infection results in medical needs and expenditures extending over decades. The book presents a framework for integrating these financial consequences and the transmission dynamics of HIV in the analysis of cost-effectiveness of HIV/AIDS interventions and in the design of HIV/AIDS programs.
Jeffrey Sachs,World Health Organization. Commission on Macroeconomics and Health,World Health Organization
Author : Jeffrey Sachs,World Health Organization. Commission on Macroeconomics and Health,World Health Organization Publisher : World Health Organization Page : 213 pages File Size : 41,5 Mb Release : 2001-12 Category : Law ISBN : 9789241545501
Macroeconomics and Health by Jeffrey Sachs,World Health Organization. Commission on Macroeconomics and Health,World Health Organization Pdf
Describes a strategy for investing in health for economic development, especially in the world's poorest countries. The report proposes a partnership of developing and developed countries, to save eight million lives yearly, in developing countries from infectious diseases and maternal conditions.
Welfare Implications of HIV/AIDS by Mr.Markus Haacker,Mr.N. F. R. Crafts Pdf
The paper evaluates the impact of HIV/AIDS on welfare in several countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Unlike studies focusing on the impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP per capita, we evaluate the impact of increased mortality using estimates of the value of statistical life. Our results illustrate the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS in the worst-affected countries and suggest that studies focusing on GDP and income per capita capture only a very small proportion of the welfare impact of HIV/AIDS.
The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa by Markus Haacker Pdf
The paper provides an analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector, public education, the supply of labor and the returns to training in nine Southern African countries. Drawing on the preceding sections, it assesses the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income in a neoclassical growth framework. HIV/AIDS affects per capita income mainly through its impact of human capital, as measured by the supply of experienced workers. Other factors include the impact on capital accumulation, on education, and on total factor productivity.
The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana by Mr.Maitland MacFarlan,Ms.Silvia Sgherri Pdf
This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 51⁄2 percent a year without the pandemic to between 11⁄2 and 21⁄2 percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of Hiv/Aids in the Middle East and North Africa by David A. Robalino Pdf
Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region - Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors - sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.This paper - a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at [email protected].
The Long-Run Economic Costs of Aids by Clive Bell Pdf
Most existing estimates of the macroeconomic costs of AIDS, as measured by the reduction in the growth rate of gross domestic product, are modest. For Africa - the continent where the epidemic has hit the hardest - they range between 0.3 and 1.5 percent annually. The reason is that these estimates are based on an underlying assumption that the main effect of increased mortality is to relieve pressure on existing land and physical capital so that output per head is little affected. Bell, Devarajan, and Gersbach argue that this emphasis is misplaced and that, with a more plausible view of how the economy functions over the long run, the economic costs of AIDS are almost certain to be much higher. Not only does AIDS destroy existing human capital, but by killing mostly young adults, it also weakens the mechanism through which knowledge and abilities are transmitted from one generation to the next. The children of AIDS victims will be left without one or both parents to love, raise, and educate them.The model yields the following results. In the absence of AIDS, the counterfactual benchmark, there is modest growth, with universal and complete education attained within three generations. But if nothing is done to combat the epidemic, a complete economic collapse will occur within three generations. With optimal spending on combating the disease, and if there is pooling, growth is maintained, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than in the benchmark case in the absence of AIDS. If pooling breaks down and is replaced by nuclear families, growth will be slower still. Indeed, if school attendance subsidies are not possible, growth will be distinctly sluggish. In all three cases, the additional fiscal burden of intervention will be large, which reinforces the gravity of the findings.This paper - a product of the Office of the Vice President, Human Development Network - is part of a larger effort in the network to evaluate the economic consequences of HIV/AIDS.
Welfare Implications of Hiv/Aids by Nicholas Crafts Pdf
The paper evaluates the impact of HIV/AIDS on welfare in several countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Unlike studies focusing on the impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP per capita, we evaluate the impact of increased mortality using estimates of the value of statistical life. Our results illustrate the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS in the worst-affected countries and suggest that studies focusing on GDP and income per capita capture only a very small proportion of the welfare impact of HIV/AIDS.
HIV, Resurgent Infections and Population Change in Africa by Michel Caraël,Judith Glynn Pdf
Forty years ago, the age-old battle against infectious diseases as a major threat to human health was believed close to being won. However, by the late twentieth century, the increase of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases was evident in both low and high income countries. About 30 new infectious diseases have been identified in the last 20 years. Among the "new" diseases, and most importantly, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic, with 40 million persons infected and 25 million deaths since its first description, presents one of the most significant health, societal and security challenges facing the global community. The interaction of HIV/AIDS with tuberculosis, malaria and bacterial infections have increased HIV-related morbidity and mortality, and in turn, the HIV pandemic has brought about devastating increases in tuberculosis. Understanding the population impact and the dynamics of infection diseases in the most affected region is critical to efforts to reduce the morbidity and mortality of such infections, and for decisions on where to use limited resources in the fight against infections. This book aims to contribute to these efforts by offering a demographic and epidemiological perspective on emerging and reemerging infections in sub-Saharan Africa.
Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix by International Monetary Fund Pdf
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.
AIDS, Gender and Economic Development by Cecilia Conrad,Cheryl R. Doss Pdf
This book provides a gendered analysis of the economic choices and structures that contribute to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of the impact of the epidemic on economic and social outcomes. It was originally published as a special issue of Feminist Economics.
