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In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.
Wisdom of the Crowd in Experiments by Larissa Katharina Senninger Pdf
Larissa Katharina Senninger analyses the phenomenon of wisdom of the crowd in experimental capital markets. Aiming to find out which market mechanism is able to aggregate different information in a meaningful way, a continuous double auction and a call auction mechanism are tested. In line with expectations, markets with continuous double auction mechanism are better able to aggregate information and additionally take a shorter time. The author shows that receiving more information enables subjects to make better estimations, whereas more information improves the quality of estimations significantly only if it is a lot more information.
Social Judgment and Decision Making by Joachim I. Krueger Pdf
This volume brings together classic key concepts and innovative theoretical ideas in the psychology of judgment and decision-making in social contexts. The chapters of the first section address the basic psychological processes underlying judgment and decision-making. The guiding question is "What information comes to mind and how is it transformed?" The second section poses the question of how social judgments and decisions are to be evaluated. The chapters in this section present new quantitative models that help separate various forms of accuracy and bias. The third section shows how judgments and decisions are shaped by ecological constraints. These chapters show how many seemingly complex configurations of social information are tractable by relatively simple statistical heuristics. The fourth section explores the relevance of research on judgment and decision making for specific tasks of personal or social relevance. These chapters explore how individuals can efficiently select mates, form and maintain friendship alliances, judiciously integrate their attitudes with those of a group, and help shape policies that are rational and morally sound. The book is intended as an essential resource for senior undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers, and practitioners.
The New York Times bestselling finale to the Age of Madness trilogyfinds the world in an unstoppable revolution where heroes have nothing left to lose as darkness and destruction overtake everything. Chaos. Fury. Destruction. The Great Change is upon us . . . Some say that to change the world you must first burn it down. Now that belief will be tested in the crucible of revolution: the Breakers and Burners have seized the levers of power, the smoke of riots has replaced the smog of industry, and all must submit to the wisdom of crowds. With nothing left to lose, Citizen Brock is determined to become a new hero for the new age, while Citizeness Savine must turn her talents from profit to survival before she can claw her way to redemption. Orso will find that when the world is turned upside down, no one is lower than a monarch. And in the bloody North, Rikke and her fragile Protectorate are running out of allies . . . while Black Calder gathers his forces and plots his vengeance. The banks have fallen, the sun of the Union has been torn down, and in the darkness behind the scenes, the threads of the Weaver's ruthless plan are slowly being drawn together . . . "No one writes with the seismic scope or primal intensity of Joe Abercrombie." —Pierce Brown For more from Joe Abercrombie, check out: The Age of Madness A Little Hatred The Trouble With Peace The Wisdom of Crowds The First Law Trilogy The Blade Itself Before They Are Hanged Last Argument of Kings Best Served Cold The Heroes Red Country The Shattered Sea Trilogy Half a King Half a World Half a War
Using anecdotes and metaphors from sport, combined with psychology and behavioural models, this book provides guidance and pointers as to how business performance can be improved and common obstacles overcome. An easy to read and entertaining journey through a variety of sports, with an intriguing dive into subject areas as diverse as motivation, optimism, flow, neuroscience, leadership, teamwork and collaboration. Includes worksheets with ponder questions at the end of each chapter allowing the book to be used as part of team-building, leadership development and coaching programmes.
In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.
Now with a new introduction describing the fallout of America’s consumer credit boom, 1994’s wildly acclaimed bestseller A Piece of the Action tells the story of how millions of middle class Americans went from being savers to borrowers and investors through the invention of credit cards, mutual funds, and IRAs—resulting in profound societal change. “America began to change on a mid-September day in 1958, when the Bank of America dropped its first 60,000 credit cards on the unassuming city of Fresno, California.” So begins Joe Nocera’s riveting account of one of the most astonishing revolutions in modern American life—what Nocera labels “the money revolution.” In the decades since, the middle class has gained access to credit cards, to mutual funds, to retirement accounts—and to hundreds of other financial vehicles that have allowed everyone to get “a piece of the action.” In this lively, engaging book, some of the great financial characters of modern times—from Charles Merrill to Charles Schwab to Peter Lynch—strut across the stage as the course of this great financial shift is charted. In an all-new introduction, Nocera takes a look back at the consequences of the money revolution. Were members of the middle class as prepared as the innovators claimed to take control of their financial lives? Or did events like the dot-com and the housing bubbles suggest something else: that far too many of us lacked the wherewithal to make sound investment decisions?
Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making by Henning Plessner,Cornelia Betsch,Tilmann Betsch Pdf
The central goal of this volume is to bring the learning perspective into the discussion of intuition in judgment and decision making. The book gathers recent work on intuitive decision making that goes beyond the current dominant heuristic processing perspective. However, that does not mean that the book will strictly oppose this perspective. The unique perspective of this book will help to tie together these different conceptualizations of intuition and develop an integrative approach to the psychological understanding of intuition in judgment and decision making. Accordingly, some of the chapters reflect prior research from the heuristic processing perspective in the new light of the learning perspective. This book provides a representative overview of what we currently know about intuition in judgment and decision making. The authors provide latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field. Moreover, some chapters deal with applied topics. Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making aims not only at the interest of students and researchers of psychology, but also at scholars from neighboring social and behavioral sciences such as economy, sociology, political sciences, and neurosciences.
Psychology of Group and Collective Intelligence by Yoshiko Arima Pdf
This book integrates the findings of group research emphasizing “Madness of the Crowd” versus collective intelligence that highlights “Wisdom of the Crowd.” Thus it provides an overview of psychological research on group processes and collective intelligence, analyzing cognitive, social, and structural factors. Chapters address applications of this research to contexts such as organizations and online behavior, and offer guidelines and hands-on demonstrations of psychological principles. The book is highly relevant to students and instructors in personality and social psychology.
Evaluation in the Crowd. Crowdsourcing and Human-Centered Experiments by Daniel Archambault,Helen Purchase,Tobias Hoßfeld Pdf
As the outcome of the Dagstuhl Seminar 15481 on Crowdsourcing and Human-Centered Experiments, this book is a primer for computer science researchers who intend to use crowdsourcing technology for human centered experiments. The focus of this Dagstuhl seminar, held in Dagstuhl Castle in November 2015, was to discuss experiences and methodological considerations when using crowdsourcing platforms to run human-centered experiments to test the effectiveness of visual representations. The inspiring Dagstuhl atmosphere fostered discussions and brought together researchers from different research directions. The papers provide information on crowdsourcing technology and experimental methodologies, comparisons between crowdsourcing and lab experiments, the use of crowdsourcing for visualisation, psychology, QoE and HCI empirical studies, and finally the nature of crowdworkers and their work, their motivation and demographic background, as well as the relationships among people forming the crowdsourcing community.
Financial Cryptography and Data Security by Gene Tsudik Pdf
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Financial Cryptography and Data Security, FC 2008, held in Cozumel, Mexico, in January 2008. The 16 revised full papers and 9 revised short papers presented together with 5 poster papers, 2 panel reports, and 1 invited lecture were carefully reviewed and selected from 86 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on attacks and counter measures, protocols, theory, hardware, chips and tags, signatures and encryption, as well as anonymity and e-cash.
Code with the Wisdom of the Crowd by Mark Pearl Pdf
Build systems faster and more effectively with Mob Programming. Mob Programming is an approach to developing software that radically reduces defects and key-person dependencies by having a group of people work together at a single machine. See how to avoid the most common pitfalls that teams make when first starting out. Discover what it takes to create and support a successful mob. Now you can take collaborative programming to the next level with Mob Programming. Mob Programming is a natural extension of the popular Pair Programming concept, and is not restricted to a specific programming language or technology. It can be used by anyone who develops software, including dev leads, software developers, and agile coaches. The more people working on a bug or feature results in fewer dependencies on individuals, and overall increased learning for everyone involved. With more eyes on the code, you'll find you develop better solutions with fewer defects. Set up your team for success by introducing Mob Programming in a way that benefits them. Create a good first Mobbing experience for your team with a template that avoids the common traps beginners may fall into. Master a collaborative and empathic mindset to help optimize the Mobbing experience. Learn how to make adjustments when things go wrong. Adapt your mobbing to different types of development tasks. Get management buy-in for your Mobbing experiment by demonstrating the benefits. Discover the equipment and resources you need, and how to adjust your workspace for an effective mob. Get important features to market sooner, squish bugs faster, and collaborate better today with Mob Programming. What You Need: All you need is three or more programmers, a meeting workspace that's large enough to accommodate your mob, and a computer on which to work.
Best Business Crime Writing of the Year by James Surowiecki Pdf
From some of our most talented and perceptive crime writers—an entertaining anthology of true stories from the front lines of the war zone that has become American business today. • “Lovely and juicy. It's all about egos, excess, lack of caution.” —USA Today A year ago it would have been difficult to conceive of an anthology of stories solely devoted to corporate malfeasance. Today, the challenge has been to keep it confined to one volume. From P.J. O’Rourke’s hilarious “How To Stuff A Wild Enron,” in which he compares trying to understand Enron’s finances to trying to buy an airline ticket at the best price, to Marc Peyser’s’s perceptive look at that American institution, Martha Stewart, to Joe Nocera’s investigation of how it all went wrong, the stories here are sometimes infuriating, often entertaining, and invariably informative. Includes: • “The New Bull Market” by Michael Kinsley from Slate • “In Praise of Corporate Corruption Boom” by Michael Lewis from Bloomberg News • “HardBall” by David McClintick from Forbes • “The Accountants’ War” by Jane Mayer from the New Yorker • “Enron Debacle Highlights the Trouble With Stock Options” by Thomas Stewart from Business 2.0 • “Investigating ImClone” by Alex Prud’homme from Vanity Fair
“The amount of knowledge and talent dispersed among the human race has always outstripped our capacity to harness it. Crowdsourcing corrects that—but in doing so, it also unleashes the forces of creative destruction.” —From Crowdsourcing First identified by journalist Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired article, “crowdsourcing” describes the process by which the power of the many can be leveraged to accomplish feats that were once the province of the specialized few. Howe reveals that the crowd is more than wise—it’s talented, creative, and stunningly productive. Crowdsourcing activates the transformative power of today’s technology, liberating the latent potential within us all. It’s a perfect meritocracy, where age, gender, race, education, and job history no longer matter; the quality of work is all that counts; and every field is open to people of every imaginable background. If you can perform the service, design the product, or solve the problem, you’ve got the job. But crowdsourcing has also triggered a dramatic shift in the way work is organized, talent is employed, research is conducted, and products are made and marketed. As the crowd comes to supplant traditional forms of labor, pain and disruption are inevitable. Jeff Howe delves into both the positive and negative consequences of this intriguing phenomenon. Through extensive reporting from the front lines of this revolution, he employs a brilliant array of stories to look at the economic, cultural, business, and political implications of crowdsourcing. How were a bunch of part-time dabblers in finance able to help an investment company consistently beat the market? Why does Procter & Gamble repeatedly call on enthusiastic amateurs to solve scientific and technical challenges? How can companies as diverse as iStockphoto and Threadless employ just a handful of people, yet generate millions of dollars in revenue every year? The answers lie within these pages. The blueprint for crowdsourcing originated from a handful of computer programmers who showed that a community of like-minded peers could create better products than a corporate behemoth like Microsoft. Jeff Howe tracks the amazing migration of this new model of production, showing the potential of the Internet to create human networks that can divvy up and make quick work of otherwise overwhelming tasks. One of the most intriguing ideas of Crowdsourcing is that the knowledge to solve intractable problems—a cure for cancer, for instance—may already exist within the warp and weave of this infinite and, as yet, largely untapped resource. But first, Howe proposes, we need to banish preconceived notions of how such problems are solved. The very concept of crowdsourcing stands at odds with centuries of practice. Yet, for the digital natives soon to enter the workforce, the technologies and principles behind crowdsourcing are perfectly intuitive. This generation collaborates, shares, remixes, and creates with a fluency and ease the rest of us can hardly understand. Crowdsourcing, just now starting to emerge, will in a short time simply be the way things are done.