Assessing The Impacts Of Covid 19 On Household Incomes And Poverty In Rwanda A Microsimulation Approach

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Aragie, Emerta
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach by Diao, Xinshen,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Aragie, Emerta Pdf

In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Mahrt, Kristi
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2020-08-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach by Diao, Xinshen,Mahrt, Kristi Pdf

With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.

Author : Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by Aragie, Emerta,Diao, Xinshen,Robinson, Sherman,Rosenbach, Gracie,Spielman, David J.,Thurlow, James Pdf

Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

Author : Diao, Xinshen,Mahrt, Kristi
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 12 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Assessing the Impact on Household Incomes and Poverty of Declines in Remittances Due to COVID-19 by Diao, Xinshen,Mahrt, Kristi Pdf

Remittances are an important income source for the poor in Myanmar, particularly for low-income rural households. This policy note focuses on the likely impact on household income and poverty in Myanmar of declines in international and domestic remittances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We used a microsimulation model to do so.

Author : Bryan, Elizabeth,Mawia, Harriet,Ringler, Claudia,Mane, Erdgin,Costa, Valentina,Ndoro, Rumbidzai
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 96 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys by Bryan, Elizabeth,Mawia, Harriet,Ringler, Claudia,Mane, Erdgin,Costa, Valentina,Ndoro, Rumbidzai Pdf

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts in every part of the world, including on vulnerable populations in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the ways in which men and women in rural areas of four countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda—experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and associated income losses, as well as their responses to the crisis. To identify and monitor the differential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women and men in rural households, IFPRI conducted phone surveys in selected regions of the four focal countries, with financial and technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The surveys traced gender differences in responses to the pandemic and associated restrictions, such as choice of coping strategies, access to public assistance, and changes in the care burden for men and women.

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2021-01-23
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model by Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid Pdf

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Author : Johannes G. Hoogeveen,Gladys Lopez-Acevedo
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2021-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464817779

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Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region by Johannes G. Hoogeveen,Gladys Lopez-Acevedo Pdf

COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Ejaz, Amna,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2021-02-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model by Moeen, Muhammad Saad,Haider, Zeeshan,Shikoh, Sania Haider,Rizwan, Noormah,Ejaz, Amna,Davies, Stephen,Rana, Abdul Wajid Pdf

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.

Author : Angus Deaton
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 492 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 1997
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0801852544

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The Analysis of Household Surveys by Angus Deaton Pdf

Using data from several countries, including Cote d'Ivoire, India, Pakistan, Taiwan, and Thailand, this book analyzes household survey data from developing countries and illustrates how such data can be used to cast light on a range of short-term and long-term policy issues.

Author : Maura Francese,Delphine Prady
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2018-12-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484388815

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Universal Basic Income: Debate and Impact Assessment by Maura Francese,Delphine Prady Pdf

This paper discusses the definition and modelling of a universal basic income (UBI). After clarifying the debate about what a UBI is and presenting the arguments in favor and against, an analytical approach for its assessment is proposed. The adoption of a UBI as a policy tool is discussed with regard to the policy objectives (shaped by social preferences) it is designed to achieve. Key design dimensions to be considered include: coverage, generosity of the program, overall progressivity of the policy, and its financing.

Author : UNESCO
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 101 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2021-10-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789231004728

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When schools shut by UNESCO Pdf

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2016-11-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464809620

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Monitoring Global Poverty by World Bank Pdf

In 2013, the World Bank Group announced two goals that would guide its operations worldwide. First is the eradication of chronic extreme poverty bringing the number of extremely poor people, defined as those living on less than 1.25 purchasing power parity (PPP)†“adjusted dollars a day, to less than 3 percent of the world’s population by 2030.The second is the boosting of shared prosperity, defined as promoting the growth of per capita real income of the poorest 40 percent of the population in each country. In 2015, United Nations member nations agreed in New York to a set of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the first and foremost of which is the eradication of extreme poverty everywhere, in all its forms. Both the language and the spirit of the SDG objective reflect the growing acceptance of the idea that poverty is a multidimensional concept that reflects multiple deprivations in various aspects of well-being. That said, there is much less agreement on the best ways in which those deprivations should be measured, and on whether or how information on them should be aggregated. Monitoring Global Poverty: Report of the Commission on Global Poverty advises the World Bank on the measurement and monitoring of global poverty in two areas: What should be the interpretation of the definition of extreme poverty, set in 2015 in PPP-adjusted dollars a day per person? What choices should the Bank make regarding complementary monetary and nonmonetary poverty measures to be tracked and made available to policy makers? The World Bank plays an important role in shaping the global debate on combating poverty, and the indicators and data that the Bank collates and makes available shape opinion and actual policies in client countries, and, to a certain extent, in all countries. How we answer the above questions can therefore have a major influence on the global economy.

Author : Mr.David Coady,Nghia-Piotr Le
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2020-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513547046

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Designing Fiscal Redistribution: The Role of Universal and Targeted Transfers by Mr.David Coady,Nghia-Piotr Le Pdf

There is a growing debate on the relative merits of universal and targeted social assistance transfers in achieving income redistribution objectives. While the benefits of targeting are clear, i.e., a larger poverty impact for a given transfer budget or lower fiscal cost for a given poverty impact, in practice targeting also comes with various costs, including incentive, administrative, social and political costs. The appropriate balance between targeted and universal transfers will therefore depend on how countries decide to trade-off these costs and benefits as well as on the potential for redistribution through taxes. This paper discusses the trade-offs that arise in different country contexts and the potential for strengthening fiscal redistribution in advanced and developing countries, including through expanding transfer coverage and progressive tax financing.

Author : Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780896297838

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Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis by Clemens Breisinger,Marcelle Thomas,James Thurlow Pdf

This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis

Author : Ariel Fiszbein,Norbert R. Schady
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 346 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2009-02-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0821373536

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Conditional Cash Transfers by Ariel Fiszbein,Norbert R. Schady Pdf

Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty by making welfare programs conditional upon the receivers' actions. That is, the government only transfers the money to persons who meet certain criteria. These criteria may include enrolling children into public schools, getting regular check-ups at the doctor's office, receiving vaccinations, or the like. They have been hailed as a way of reducing inequality and helping households break out of a vicious cycle whereby poverty is transmitted from one generation to another. Do these and other claims make sense? Are they supported by the available empirical evidence? This volume seeks to answer these and other related questions. Specifically, it lays out a conceptual framework for thinking about the economic rationale for CCTs; it reviews the very rich evidence that has accumulated on CCTs; it discusses how the conceptual framework and the evidence on impacts should inform the design of CCT programs in practice; and it discusses how CCTs fit in the context of broader social policies. The authors show that there is considerable evidence that CCTs have improved the lives of poor people and argue that conditional cash transfers have been an effective way of redistributing income to the poor. They also recognize that even the best-designed and managed CCT cannot fulfill all of the needs of a comprehensive social protection system. They therefore need to be complemented with other interventions, such as workfare or employment programs, and social pensions.