Managing Volatility A Vulnerability Exercise For Low Income Countries

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Managing Volatility - A Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries

International Monetary Fund
Managing Volatility A Vulnerability Exercise for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2011-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498339209

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Managing Volatility - A Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper, introduces the analytical framework for a Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries (VE-LIC). The envisaged exercise will strive to identify vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment in a consistent manner across countries and across time. The objective is to strengthen the staff’s capacity to spot vulnerabilities and flag potential pressure points in LICs arising from external triggers before they materialize.

Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank
Managing Volatility in Low Income Countries The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2011-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338325

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Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank Pdf

The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Book PDF

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2012-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616353773

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2012-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545197

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu Pdf

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2012-11-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475548839

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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz Pdf

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
2013 Low Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2013-09-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498341332

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2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

An assessment of vulnerabilities and risks in LICs remains important both for LICs themselves and for the international community. There are currently 74 LICs, eligible for concessional financing from the Fund. This group of countries has a total population of about 1.3 billion, with an average per capita income of around $850. They typically face the steepest challenges in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and are increasingly the focus of global development assistance to assist them in this endeavor. This report serves several purposes. It provides a cross-cutting analysis of the economic vulnerabilities of LICs, yielding some general policy conclusions and messages aimed at strengthening their resilience to external shocks. It delivers a richer coverage of developments in LICs than is typically contained in the major IMF multilateral surveillance reports, where analysis is focused primarily on developments in the advanced and emerging market economies. The report serves as an effective outreach tool to country authorities and the wider public. Finally, it provides useful information to other international financial institutions (IFIs) and donors that provide financial resources to LICs on the potential financing needs of these countries under varying global scenarios.

Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Financial Deepening and Macro-Stability

International Monetary Fund
Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low Income Countries Financial Deepening and Macro Stability Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2012-04-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498340649

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Enhancing Financial Sector Surveillance in Low-Income Countries - Financial Deepening and Macro-Stability by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper aims to widen the lens through which surveillance is conducted in LICs, to better account for the interplay between financial deepening and macro-financial stability as called for in the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review. Reflecting the inherent risk-return tradeoffs associated with financial deepening, the paper seeks to shed light on the policy and institutional impediments in LICs that have a bearing on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, macro-financial stability, and growth. The paper focuses attention on the role of enabling policies in facilitating sustainable financial deepening. In framing the discussion, the paper draws on a range of conceptual and analytical tools, empirical analyses, and case studies.

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
2014 Triennial Surveillance Review Staff Background Studies Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 120 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2014-07-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498343077

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2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

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Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova
Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2016-03-16
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513596013

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Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova Pdf

The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security. This paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters. The paper finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2011-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338455

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.George C. Tsibouris
Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.George C. Tsibouris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2013-03-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475554526

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Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.George C. Tsibouris Pdf

Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2012

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Bulletin September 2012 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2012-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475510683

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IMF Research Bulletin, September 2012 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries

Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Mrs.Sarwat Jahan
Spillovers to Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Mrs.Sarwat Jahan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2012-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463937102

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Spillovers to Low-Income Countries by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza,Mrs.Sarwat Jahan Pdf

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.

Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries

Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono
Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2011-10-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463923280

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Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono Pdf

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Book PDF

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2012-06-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475596946

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.