Global Shocks And Their Impacton Low Income Countries

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Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries

Hans Weisfeld,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Global Shocks and their Impacton Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Hans Weisfeld,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2011-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455216741

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Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries by Hans Weisfeld,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou Pdf

This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.

Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries?

Claudio E. Raddatz
Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Claudio E. Raddatz
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? by Claudio E. Raddatz Pdf

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2012-11-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475548839

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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz Pdf

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

Romain Houssa,Jolan Mohimont,Mr. Christopher Otrok
The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country Book PDF

Author : Romain Houssa,Jolan Mohimont,Mr. Christopher Otrok
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2015-02-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484388198

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The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country by Romain Houssa,Jolan Mohimont,Mr. Christopher Otrok Pdf

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.

Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises

Mr.Paolo Dudine,Sibabrata Das,Ms.Pritha Mitra,Yongzheng Yang,Eteri Kvintradze,MissNkunde Mwase
Creating Policy Space in Low Income Countries during the Recent Crises Book PDF

Author : Mr.Paolo Dudine,Sibabrata Das,Ms.Pritha Mitra,Yongzheng Yang,Eteri Kvintradze,MissNkunde Mwase
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2010-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589069305

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Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises by Mr.Paolo Dudine,Sibabrata Das,Ms.Pritha Mitra,Yongzheng Yang,Eteri Kvintradze,MissNkunde Mwase Pdf

Low-income countries were hit especially hard by sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and the global financial crisis that followed. In response, the International Monetary Fund scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible in meeting the diverse needs of these countries. Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises assesses empirically the outcome of the IMF response, and provides insight into how IMF-supported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances in these countries. The authors report that these programs have provided expanded policy space in the face of the global price shocks and financial crisis.

Globalization and Poverty

Ann Harrison
Globalization and Poverty Book PDF

Author : Ann Harrison
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 675 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226318004

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Globalization and Poverty by Ann Harrison Pdf

Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.

Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis

Mr.Alfredo Baldini,Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mai Dao,Rafael Portillo
Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alfredo Baldini,Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mai Dao,Rafael Portillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2012-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475502848

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Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis by Mr.Alfredo Baldini,Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mai Dao,Rafael Portillo Pdf

We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as "stop and go": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the "stop" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Book PDF

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2012-07-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616353773

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova
Weather Shocks and Output in Low Income Countries The Role of Policies and Adaptation Book PDF

Author : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2019-08-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513509853

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Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova Pdf

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.

The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg
The End of An Era the Medium and Long Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2010-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781455205363

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The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Nicola Spatafora,Mr.Andrew Berg Pdf

This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.

The Impact of the Global Economic Recession on Low-Income Countries

Francis Mulenga Muma
The Impact of the Global Economic Recession on Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Francis Mulenga Muma
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783656249573

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The Impact of the Global Economic Recession on Low-Income Countries by Francis Mulenga Muma Pdf

Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: Grade1, Xiamen University (School of Economics), course: International Economics, language: English, abstract: This paper has attempted to analyze the Impact of the past current Global Economic Recession on Low Income Countries (LICs), by showing how it started, its impact on the real economy and how it spread to the LICs. Further the Paper has tried to highlight policy choices confronting the LICs in order to mitigate the crisis and avoid the recurrence of further crisis in future.

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2012-10-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475545197

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu Pdf

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries

Yasemin Bal-Gunduz,Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Burcu Hacibedel,Ms.Linda Kaltani,Ms.Vera V Kehayova,Mr.Chris Lane,Mr.Christian Mumssen,MissNkunde Mwase,Mr.Joseph Thornton
The Economic Impact of IMF Supported Programs in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Yasemin Bal-Gunduz,Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Burcu Hacibedel,Ms.Linda Kaltani,Ms.Vera V Kehayova,Mr.Chris Lane,Mr.Christian Mumssen,MissNkunde Mwase,Mr.Joseph Thornton
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 60 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2013-10-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484394717

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The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries by Yasemin Bal-Gunduz,Mr.Christian Ebeke,Ms.Burcu Hacibedel,Ms.Linda Kaltani,Ms.Vera V Kehayova,Mr.Chris Lane,Mr.Christian Mumssen,MissNkunde Mwase,Mr.Joseph Thornton Pdf

This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2011-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498338455

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Pdf

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries

Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova
Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2016-03-16
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513596013

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Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji,Jana Gieck-Bricco,Ms.Vera V Kehayova Pdf

The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security. This paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters. The paper finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.